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[danzak]

Need a help with staking and Step Seq for this this data.

I've got only two months of data. I would like to put into SIM mode but need advice from you.

System has been using form filters like Track, Rating, Class, ...

[danzak]

Thank you.
I'll need to think more closely how to improve my SR from 41% to 50% first then use SS.

[Sr8822541]

Hi DN,

First of all thanks for taking your time and sharing with us here.

I have been using BFBM since April and been grinding since then to find out a profitable Strategy. But, I never used forum until two days ago and stumbled upon your posts here and they are a great source of information.

I am a Data Analyst and my complete focus has been on Aus greys. I have gathered over a year data through betfair by downloading daily data files and it took me a lot of time to prepare the data as I have added few more colums which were not in Betfair data.

I usually write complex formulas in excel which has over a year data for different strats to give me an instant big picture of whats happening with a graph and key stats summary, and ran few bots live for a period of time with decent profits but there is always a new pattern or trend which happens during live and it screwed me up few times.

So I have stopped live bots for now and currently been running few more simulations on the Aus greys data. I have tested mainly LAY side so far, esp 1st and 2nd fav with various filtering conditions like box, odds, different recoveries, etc.,

It is interesting you mentioned about RapidMiner which I have used long back, propably I also should try AI and find some new hidden patterns.

With your forum posts, I have now understood Backing side and will probaly test the data for few more patterns as you mentioned so far. Thanks again for sharing.

[Sr8822541]

glad to find someone as interested in this as I am

I do feel there is one thing that differs between success and failure.

When I watched the BetAngel guys video about winning at greyhounds - I knew he had no idea on how to actually win everyday - because he described the plain vanilla things that sound good and would win if you had an unlimited bank and an unlimited time period and ultimately were the same thoughts as everyone else.

It takes an iron focus - it takes discarding being the best form analyst - and it comes down to the simple concept -- using stats alone can you find winners at a strike rate that can make you money ... yes or no.

in terms of back betting that is the simple truth - you will drive yourself batty relying solely on form - you gotta find an edge and exploit it.

Hi DN,

So I have tried a bot with settings and filters I understood so far. I am running from yesterday in simulation, but having difficulties with the bot settings, I am not sure if the basic ones are correct. PFB screenshot, it is following the SQ I mentioned (so no issues here). but not sure why those extra lines are popping up. Also, you have the unsettled bets condition? If yes, whats the value is at? Because of those extra lines, for me it is considering as unsettled markets under Reports and not betting next sequence.

Also for BSP to work correctly for Greys in BFBM, what conditions you have mentioned? I do not want any setting that reveales secret to your strategy like Sequence and selections filters like box, track dist etc.,.

Could you please provide screenshot of settings related to BSP, and other general selection codn, price settings by hiding all other crucial conditions?

Thanks. This would help a lot.

[Sr8822541]

yeah your a bit lost there

Also I do not bet 2 dogs in same race using same strategy

on my other one I built a strategy for each and combined with joint take profit and stop loss

I just found like everyone else betting 2 with recovery - the recovery gets too big -- which is why I focussed so hard on strike rate .. strike rate is everything to be honest.

we do have some people who said they hit 80% with lay strategy - that is great .. I did bit of work on lay betting but nothing compared to back

Thanks for sharing man. I have corrected Price rules now. I had the bet persistence as same.

I just wanted to get the general settings right first. I didn't wanted to place two bets per race, but not sure why it was doing that, again a while later it stopped and just did one bet per race and followed sequence. Not sure why those "BSP order" bets were displaying, and they were counted as unsettled markets, so it screwed up there. Will check with BF team if happens again.

But can you just quickly see the settings I have in pics below. I have masked SQ and other details. but I am not entirely sure if few rules I have highlighted are required for this. If those are extra, just let me know I will remove.

After this I will just move to analysis part and tweak or add filters as I go and will try to achieve the ideal SR. I have over 400k rows of data for Aus GH waiting for me to solve the puzzle.

Thanks again.

[Drizzy12]

SR,

I also found with the unsettled market condition that sometimes, it took a while for the result to come through meaning missing out on bets. This seems to happen more so in the UK than Australia (perhaps they run more often in UK)
I therefore have three identical strategies each with a condition not to fire if the other has a bet on the same event. That way I capture all my relevant races throughout the day. This might affect your SQ system however.

Just a thought.

[paulbusiness]

Hey DN, some great ideas/rules.

Never thought of/tried multi lay bot?

I'm just catching up on everything here. I have a small group who are really making headway in a lot of areas. Although always a new rule to find/learn.

I should probably start a new thread on our ideas.

I'll keep up to date here!

Cheers

[Sr8822541]

Hi Drizzy, thanks for your feedback. Yeah will consider this for a different strat.

I am currently trying to achieve SQ strategy.

@DN, Yes I also want to run a bot similar to your simple SQ which you shared in this thread. So I want to place one bet per fav.

Once I figure this SQ bot out, then will move to complex bot for GH you shared in other thread. Looking forward for your feedback. Thanks.

[paulbusiness]

Can anyone explain the retirement staking plan rule better for me? Im using it and not sure whats going wrong?

[wondra]

Hi dn.

Just wanted to say a big thank you!!

Yesterday I took my seq bot live. Just woke up to get ready for work

It has grinded out just under $100 (after BF coms). I am so happy.

Without you and this thread, I may never have got there. Thank you

cheers
wondra

[jimbob03]

Hey mate luv your info has given me great reading over the last week, really appreciate it,

Can you point me in the right direction, do you run separate strategies for different field sizes? Distances? how complex are your filters mine are pretty simple around 4 per strategy, I’m in the process logging the results and going to run them through rapid Minner and look for some patterns is there anything You can help out with cheers

[jimbob03]

Thanks for the update I’m running similar to what your doing I’m running dogs in Aus with SQ, what filters you using for the above forum strategy?

[woweee]

Hi


What does this mean ? "but only allow betting when drawn 1-8 barrier"

[woweee]

DN,

I might be being stupid but your example sequence doesn't make sense.

example sequence ... 1/3/2/4/1/5/2/2/3/1/4/2/1

If you were to win on the 5th bet your outlay would be 10 points and your win would be 1 point. If you hit this every time (or any other of the latter 1s) you would most definitely not be profitable.

As I say, I am not doubting you as you have shown you can be profitable but I don't think it is as easy as that.

If you would like to share an example strat privately I'd be more than happy to trial it in the UK markets so it doesn't affect your betting

Again, wish you success mate.

Hi Drizzy


Your calculation that you would lose 10 points if you won on the 5th bet
Would definitely not be profitable.
Do you know what you did incorrect ?

[jimbob03]

I finding it difficult to filter buy track and distance in GH can you guys help me out what filters to use? As the racing once don’t seem to work?