baddydaddy67 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:11 pm Like the sound of dutching say F3-F5 - looking back at stats on some UK tracks it may be profitable even without loss recovery. I've picked a couple to try it out on based on the results / stats from BFbot. Will let you know if profitable.If you want to cut down you research time for which tracks will suit what, take a look at the Draw Bias of all the tracks, then pick out the ones that appeal to you, Also researching how x amount of runners on those tracks corollate to the prices on offer will help you with the F3-F5 dutch bot. All the best.
dn6789 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:27 am in terms of sequence betting there is a direct correlation between price of Fav 1 and Strike Rate and consistency of resultsIn the UK it's said that the F1 should be winning between 30-32% time overall, however there are certain races where the F1 will win only about 26% of time, if you can find those races or venues then you should have a very high rate of laying the fav or dutching the field with some descent results.
today I raised price of fav too higher level and my strike rate dropped to 23% and also what happened was before I would get streaks where I would win 8/9 bets as an example - raising it took away the streaks like that
so we learned today when building your streak you need to identify the more consistent race types and build your sequence and betting around that -- do not think that you can go betting at higher prices without a multiple bet strategy
ideally for this sequence betting strike rate which we have always know was important - and price - so seems when Fav 1 is shorter the win rate and price works in fav 2 3 and 4's favor
wondra wrote: ↑Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:03 pm Hi
Im running a few seq in SIM mode, but I dont seem to be able to get the strategy to restart after 5 losses.
I appreciate you are very busy and giving freely of your time but if you have a moment, could you check my thread re Safety Rules and any suggestions you may have would be greatly appreciated.
Im actually running separate strategies for 5, 6, 7, 8 and all races (5 strategies). The smaller ones are showing a small but consistent profit (need more time though to iron out seq) My 2 larger ones 8 starters & All races (naturally have more races) and both stop after 5 losses but do not restart after a win. they just stay stopped for the rest of the night.
After 5 losses you need to change from STOP to Restart, that will allow your bot to reset it's self then run again.
Thanks for a very educational and profitable thread, much appreciated
cheers
wondra
baddydaddy67 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:17 pm Hi, dutching proving profitable! Could be made more profitable using your sequence ideas. I wont post results up yet, maybe next week. UK races easier to dutch as only 6 runners.Your very right about track bias and loss recovery. The one thing that does make a difference is the average odds you are recovering with in the sequence. I have 1 system that recovers just previous stakes and after 500 runs the longest losing sequence was 7, however the positive here is that the amount that was needed to recover previous losses added to less then 3% of my roll. My longest winning streak has be 5 runs (multiple times) and average string loss is 2.8 runs.
There are a few track biases but they dont tend to matter if you get the sequencing and loss recovery working.
GL all.baddydaddy67 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:38 pm More good contributions. I am making good progress on AUS horses and dogs, UK dogs - Testing strategies with no real trap bias and a reasonable spread of favourites winning; sustainable profit is proving harder.5 Horse races are steady income if laying 3rd and 4th favs, just don't get carried away with the prices. Find the happy middle where you can make 1-3pts per day steady, and if goes terrible then then you only losing 3 or 4 pts that day, but there are way more good days then bad ones.
Beerio, I like 5 horse idea, I do something around laying F3/4 at a reduced price.
One question - for those dutching are you using recovery staking - if so which one? I am using lay X%/Y%.
dn6789 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:12 pm I thought on UK dogs with those real tight turning tracks to look at the wider boxes and choose dogs that have raced recently or have finished in top 3 beaten a short distanceI haven't gone too deep into the tight turn angle, however there are a few tracks where the favs only win 25% & 27% respectively and im dutching around them, as other tracks will show 30%+ hit rate.
no point being a resuming dog drawn the inside
no point not being fit as you need to hit the outside and swoop down
and you need a strong healthy dog in some sort of recent form - I doubt out of form dogs jump well
anyway I think there are filters and sequence you could build on those tight tracks - but I have not done so myself in terms of building something
dn6789 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:19 pm when it comes to horse racing I have been working on 5 6 7 8 horse fields and that is it myself -- there are way more patterns and in very small fields often fav 1 gets tripped up by the pace or position - the better riders tend to show more smarts.I just autoloaded all sorts of horses and greyhounds for Aus for the overnight sessions. I will run these in sim mode in the times that my actual bots don't run to gather the information to start building a theory. I like the idea you presented with the smaller fields as that's manageable, even tho in big races there's more chances of not F1 winning, but if the horses are 100/1+ then they don't actually have a chance of winning but more hampering a runner or 2 IMO, but I could be proven wrong, so lets see what the data says after a few weeks
anyway I got to go out now -- back later
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