By beztom - Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:26 am
- Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:26 am
#23284
Hi there
Loving the product - thanks so much for providing it.
I'd trialled a strategy in simulation mode which was performing quite well. It relied on placing a bet on football matches that had reached a specific score. However, when putting it into live mode it doesn't perform nearly as well. Comparing the average odds in simulation vs average odds in live shows that the average odds in live are a lot lower, which I'm trying to understand and compensate for.
My understanding is that simulation odds are delayed and so when the live score updates (which is a service separate to Betfair), the bet is placed at the odds that were available before the goal was scored. In live mode, the odds have already adjusted as soon as the goal is scored - hence they are matched lower.
Firstly, have I understood the issue correctly?
Second, I've thought up ways to compensate for this a little bit but not sure how to execute it. Are any of the below possible?
Loving the product - thanks so much for providing it.
I'd trialled a strategy in simulation mode which was performing quite well. It relied on placing a bet on football matches that had reached a specific score. However, when putting it into live mode it doesn't perform nearly as well. Comparing the average odds in simulation vs average odds in live shows that the average odds in live are a lot lower, which I'm trying to understand and compensate for.
My understanding is that simulation odds are delayed and so when the live score updates (which is a service separate to Betfair), the bet is placed at the odds that were available before the goal was scored. In live mode, the odds have already adjusted as soon as the goal is scored - hence they are matched lower.
Firstly, have I understood the issue correctly?
Second, I've thought up ways to compensate for this a little bit but not sure how to execute it. Are any of the below possible?
- Attempt to stake at odds that are higher than the average (eg 1.6 vs 1.5). If this cannot be matched, accept the currently available odds.
- Delay placing of a bet for X seconds (as long as the other conditions are still met). I've noted that the market I'm interested in reacts sharply to a goal, but then the odds start to settle (get higher) after just a minute or two.