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[sammmy]

Hi,

I know am asking for the holly here, but does anyone have a good working strategy with solid returns.

Am currently working on a strategy that involves laying the 4th fav with a criteria that am still tweaking.

Any help would be highly appreciated.

Cheers

Sammmy

[krooney17]

Hi sammy.

Seen that no one replied im going to give you some advice as i know you havnt come here asking for gold and it is friendly to let you know (your wasting your time) laying the 4th favourite in any market the problem you have is that you might profit from 20 but lose it all in 1 this seems to be the problem everyone might have but a bit of maths will tell you, some people would lay the 1st favourite when its not a clear favourite but forget 1 very important thing, if there is only 3 runners in a race then the 1st favourite will have a better chance at winng but when theres more maybe 8+ the chances of it winning are cut but a moral here is to never ever lay them above 3.0 reason for tgis is that you wud be risking all your profit if anythin over 3.0 were to win, so you can see why this is a very big problem.

I personally dont have a good working strategy but 1 moral will stand, we as humans have a natural instinct if i knew the winning lottery numbers and shared them with 4 million people and the jackpot was 4 million quid then id only get a pound the same applies here we look after ourselves and our family before others, so keep working and find your own way.

Kev

[Perpendicular]

Hi,

Sorry, no profitable strategy here. I deposited 500€ to Betfair many years ago and since then I've tried every possible strategy that I could get hold of, both free and non-free (I've spend at least 300€ bying all possible eBooks etc that's out there about betting/trading). I collected huge amounts of football, horse and greyhound data (both real-time for trading and non-real time for basic betting) with my own data-collecting programs and made many analysis programs (I'm an IT-professional and do know about AI and machine learning so I consider myself quite an able programmer wrt implementing bots) trying to figure out a profitable strategy. That quest ended couple of months ago with the realization of the impossibility of it. Sure many strategies were profitable for a period of time, but ALL ended up losing eventually when they hit some very unlikely losing streak scenario etc. I've pretty much tried every possible strategy backing/hedging/dutching/laying-the-field/laying-non-favs/laying-favs with all sorts of staking strategies (yeah, I've tried Martingale live, ended up -70€ loss with that...) etc you name it and I've probably tried it.

So after losing 80% of my bankroll with live testing I cashed out my remaining 100€ from Betfair and decided to let the dream of making it big with betting die. Maybe you can create a winning strategy, good luck with that.

Now I'm working on strategies for Poker, maybe that works better for me. Not with botting, but still.

[aereol]

Just to give you a little glimmer of hope , the strategy of laying 4 th fav and even horse number 4 does work, BUT you need to add a few filters, ie, number of runners, price, days since last run, sex etc, there is a website that will do all this hard work for you, but for example laying horse number 4 in every race code since 2011 will produce 563 points profit with the filters I have added, not a brilliant return but if incorporated along with others it can be very fruitful, it just takes time to find the angle.