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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
#24322
Very interesting, have had bf bot v2 since 2009 when I retired and thought it would help eke out my pension but never made any headway with a strategy and gave up, use the bot more as a reference for results and never looked at the forum for years. just bought a new computer and needed to re install the bot, (have a lifetime licence for v2) and stumbled upon your thread.

Has given me food for thought. Thank you.
#24324
dn6789 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:41 pm +507.77

any idea on horses how to select starting position ? and track condition

so for example if I want to lay barrier 1 on heavy tracks 1200-1600 how would I set that up ?
I've attached an example horse racing strategy which should do what you're looking for. The distance is filtered in the Markets Filter and you may want to increase the max. lay odds in the min/max selection.

Thanks for the encouragement to keep us all motivated and for sharing your journey to success.

I've messed around with dogs strategies in the past, though have always found them too variable to get anything consistent (however I never used any form of recovery which seems to be essential).

From what you've posted it seems as though you only bet on AUS (and possibly NZL ?) dogs races - have you thought about looking at UK ones too, given that there are 2 less dogs to worry about?

What baffles me is why you need so many strategies - is it because each one has to have it's own recovery?

It also appears as though all your strategies are purely odds related and based on your own observations - for example there are no greyhound stats that I can find in the bot, so are you assuming first runners based on odds > 3.2 and < 8 or am I missing something there?
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#24328
dn6789 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:48 pm anyway I work on this everyday I find it fun and I hope others take a minute to read through what I am writing as there are a lot of resources I mentioned that people could use to help their results
I'm finding working on this fun again now too, so thanks for all your hints which will help a lot :)

I can now see why you have all those strategies!

They're essentially balancing each other out over time, though still allowing you to regularly take out a decent profit.

I like the idea of stopping some strategies as soon as they hit a certain profit level - to give you more consistent returns. Also the idea of trading your strategies like a portfolio of investments makes a lot of sense and having an overall stop loss/take profit - something I'll look into.

Thanks also for highlighting that 1-4 Favs come in 70% of the time. After your earlier comments I've been running strats in Sim to work out that very same thing!

I've also just read your update and resetting those strats to prevent staking going crazy is another great hint.

I totally understand that you can't reveal everything about your strategies because the amounts staked on the dogs are nowhere near the horses or bigger football games, however I think you've given us a lot of valuable info. on how to structure our own strategies and hopefully achieve some of the same sort of success that you've enjoyed!
#24335
Hmm - it's tricky to say why it's not triggered.

The first suspect is the going which we currently only have set to "heavy" - maybe we need to extend that to include "Muddy", "Sloppy" and "Slow" too?

Also BFBM point out that this information comes from a 3rd party, I know in football for certain games in play data is not available from the 3rd party source, it's also possible that the same thing happened here.

As soon as you spot another race which you think should trigger, then check the "Reports" tab under the strategy, which will tell you the rule the trigger is failing on (if you have a lot of markets continually scrolling, put your strategy temporarily on pause so that you can read the messages properly).
#24375
Hi, I have been following the thread and am impressed with the work you have put in and the results you are getting.

I am looking at the uk dogs and been trying a few strats with laying traps, faves on win and place markets etc and also using the loss recovery.

I am struggling to get a balance though.

I base most my strats around laying the dogs but the recovery can race away with the profits.

I have good days but 1 bad day can lose the winners.

Would a backing strategy be more stable than laying? Also so you have the stop loss on all strats?
#24390
Thanks for the reply and more advice.

Really appreciate it.

I have a few small strats that are green consistently but it is the increase in stakes when it goes wrong so understanding what you have put in here has helped me see where I can improve these.

I will focus on those and let you know how I get on...

Cheers
#24395
More great discussion on this thread - I'm amazed that it's not getting more attention!

Maybe everyone on the forum is already making a small fortune from their bots :lol:

I've been trying to use standard loss recovery for dogs, football and horses and I'm finding that delayed results can have disastrous impacts where some losses have built up, but the winners have yet to settle. At the same time the recovery is kicking in big time on all the new bets just placed. Of course, typically some of those new bets with huge recovery stakes end up losing and recovery rapidly gets out of hand.

dn6789 - Your method of steadily increased staking and reset on a given profit or loss has got to be the only safe solution for recovery that I can see - at the very least having a stop loss we can leave the bot unattended, reasonably confident that it won't go into crazy recovery mode and wipe out the account balance.

I've been doing some analysis on UK dogs - there are a lot of different tracks and there's no obvious bias in any of them that I can see which is consistent over time. So...I started looking at 1-6 Favourites and matching those against profitable traps. This is more consistent, though from previous experience in looking at dogs trap stats, I know that these short term trap biases can change from one week to the next or from one month to the next etc. quite randomly. I'm wondering if I need to constantly review these stats on a daily or perhaps weekly basis and then adjust the bot strategies to match current trends - or am I fooling myself with randomness masquerading as consistency? :?
#24404
Just a wee update on my set up.
Yesterday it was up and down but it came strong in the end and made me £24 profit.. today I was at work and let it run and came home to 60 loss... so not a great scenario.

It was the recovery that got me as the runs are too frequent for recovery to work so got 1 x recovery loss 2 x normal stake win 1 x recovery loss 1 x normal stake win and it just drained a weeks worth of profit.

But again some wise words on here and I think I had my light bulb moment, appreciate your time and guidance...
#24407
Hi There, this is an incedible post and i am enjoying reading about someone who has made a go of it for themself, please keep it up.

Can I ask one question, is this fully automated ?
as in do you just leave the bot on and let it run.
I am interested as you mention in your posts that you filter out some races and select certain dogs.

is this research done before and the bot applied to them runners ?
Or is it captured by your bots ?

Thanks
Gavin
#24417
Hello and thank you for sharing your thought process on the strategies your using. I have a few greyhound bots for UK, so I understand how your looking at things from research point of view. Not sure if Aus greyhounds have a sectional time like the UK or if there's a stat that says if a dog is a slow starter or not, but this would help you selection process as it just about gives it a clear run from the boxes. Wishing you all the best.
#24423
Laying UK Greys Favs is super dangerous as they do tend to go on stupid winning streaks like 13 in a row so recovery bots will get crushed, just a matter of time. It's way easier to keep track of how things are doing based on 3 month sections and see how the % figures are fluctuating after you figure out what the baseline should be. We are blessed with enough stats that if you know what your looking for you can make a living on the greys.
#24434
It's great to see this discussion continuing and with every gem posted in this thread, I feel as though I'm getting closer to understanding how to build a system from multiple strategies.

I've been collecting data (only for a week or so and ideally needs to be a lot more), which is giving me a good insight into the SR of various combinations of bets. To collect the data, I have a strategy which runs to back all dogs in all UK races - I'll probably set one up to lay all too because when the spread is taken into account it's often not a simple matter of just reversing a poorly performing backing strategy to make it a profitable laying strategy.

I'm also collecting data for horse races in a similar way. If you can find your way around Excel, it's reasonably simple to generate SR's and these can be summarized any way you like by using the pivot table functionality.

I have a bunch of strategies that I was watching today - they all had the same starting stakes with a staking plan and I noticed them being well green and then checked later and they'd lost most of the profit or turned red. I checked these in a bit more detail and found that if I'd have stopped 3 of these strategies at £x profit, I'd have been well into the green at the end of the day instead of just about breaking even.

Another thing I've been thinking about is that given any type of sports event is by nature unpredictable and variable, we need to find a means of getting an edge by covering all possibilities as dn6789 has suggested already.

Provided that we have stats showing the best SR's for particular conditions, we can home in on these and use them to generate the edge. Along with this and perhaps variable stake sizes per strategy (e.g. smaller stakes for the longer odds), we can cover all the runners - or at least all the runners we expect to have a good chance of winning.

Say we have 4 strategies, today the results may be:

1 £50
2 -£30
3 -£40
4 £60

Tomorrow the because of the variability, the results may be:

1 -£20
2 £120
3 -£30
4 -£20

The key as I see it is to ensure that the net total of all strategies is always positive.
#24437
This thread has been an eye opener if you can read between the lines. I have adjusted my selection process for UK Greyhounds just by adding 2 filters. I see less selections daily, but it has been way less volatile and some days it will break evenish or some days it will be up 4-10pts.
#24443
Interesting - so if you're winning when 3 comes second - that must have been a bet in the place market.

However, as you mentioned earlier you're picking up winners at up to 100/1 and I doubt if those can be found in the place market (certainly not in UK races!).

I'm sure it's no coincidence that two strategies ended up firing in bets on 4 ;)

The key question I'm struggling with right now, is when to bet in the place market and when to bet in the win market?...
#24449
250/1 that would have been a lovely score :D I don't work on the Aus Greys and appreciate if you can't answer this question as it would compromise your edge, but will ask anyway lol

Which stat do you value more for your systems? Sectional or Average time for each dog? Would like to see if I have the same setting at you for UK Greys. Many thanks and continue posting in the thread as it's a great learning tool.
#24454
dn6789 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 1:45 pm I am not going to do all the work for you and tell you how to do it

but if it were me - I would look at the relationships between the inside 3 and outside 3 - and what races are the outside 3 winning and what are the characteristics of the race

so what if there are 50 races in a day but you figure that only 5 fit the bill -- find more tracks find more races
I have based my system on the dogs speed and specific box rational, but as you said this above I would have to revisit previous races and see if the above would apply/improve the bets that im taking now.

I don't want you get offended at all, as defo not asking for you to disclose your system, was just wondering what your rationale was. Just looking to improve on what I already have that's all and not many people discuss openly about systems they build and are profitable.
#24468
dn6789 - a few weeks back the great title of this thread attracted me to read through your thoughts and advice. Even in those earlier days, I was surprised that there was so little interaction from others given (as Beerio says) that it's most unusual for someone who achieves success in trading to come back to a forum and give others who may be struggling some hints of how they can best spend their time to create a successful strategy (or several!).

The key thing you've done for me is to help me focus my analysis of whatever results I'm looking at and to see patterns and then put these together as multiple strategies to achieve a decent level of consistency.

All the best for the future! I think you may be buying a new boat or house next...never mind a new car (although it could be a Bugatti, you have your eye on ;) ). Thanks a million for all your help :) it's been fascinating, eye-opening and enlightening taking on board your thoughts and ideas. I've not been avid racing follower of any kind, so it's been great to hear some ideas which don't rely on form, handicapping and all the other stuff I find totally baffling lol.
#24761
I am not a programmer either . but I can scrape pages using python . but believe me when I say I am not good with numbers .
you mentioned earlier that I can make easily 150 a day :)) . my dream for a long time is to make 50 a day. that will solve a lot of problems where I live .
well . I have to keep searchin'