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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#24750
thanks for adding that Beerio

again if it just remains 2-4 of us sharing and talking about things - we just shut it down and keep it to ourselves or we just chat on telegram or something

I know I may not express myself as clear as people may like - but we all have different backgrounds so as I said I am a data guy so I speak thinking people understand that sort of process.

anyway really hope to see some more participation
By baddydaddy67
#24753
More good contributions. I am making good progress on AUS horses and dogs, UK dogs - Testing strategies with no real trap bias and a reasonable spread of favourites winning; sustainable profit is proving harder.

Beerio, I like 5 horse idea, I do something around laying F3/4 at a reduced price.

One question - for those dutching are you using recovery staking - if so which one? I am using lay X%/Y%.
By dn6789
#24754
I thought on UK dogs with those real tight turning tracks to look at the wider boxes and choose dogs that have raced recently or have finished in top 3 beaten a short distance

no point being a resuming dog drawn the inside
no point not being fit as you need to hit the outside and swoop down

and you need a strong healthy dog in some sort of recent form - I doubt out of form dogs jump well

anyway I think there are filters and sequence you could build on those tight tracks - but I have not done so myself in terms of building something
By dn6789
#24755
when I was looking through AUS GH basically the big prices are when there are full fields and some sort of interference.

so I was looking at races where fav 1 2 3 are drawn next to each other in like 3-4-5 4-5-6 5-6-7 6-7-8 then look at the other dogs prices and draws

I do not know why but good dogs drawn next to each other often race each other into the ground or bump each other -- they seem to know what spot they want to run too and only one dog can have it obviously.
By dn6789
#24756
when it comes to horse racing I have been working on 5 6 7 8 horse fields and that is it myself -- there are way more patterns and in very small fields often fav 1 gets tripped up by the pace or position - the better riders tend to show more smarts.

anyway I got to go out now -- back later
By Beerio
#24757
baddydaddy67 wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:38 pm More good contributions. I am making good progress on AUS horses and dogs, UK dogs - Testing strategies with no real trap bias and a reasonable spread of favourites winning; sustainable profit is proving harder.

Beerio, I like 5 horse idea, I do something around laying F3/4 at a reduced price.

One question - for those dutching are you using recovery staking - if so which one? I am using lay X%/Y%.
5 Horse races are steady income if laying 3rd and 4th favs, just don't get carried away with the prices. Find the happy middle where you can make 1-3pts per day steady, and if goes terrible then then you only losing 3 or 4 pts that day, but there are way more good days then bad ones.
By Beerio
#24758
dn6789 wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:12 pm I thought on UK dogs with those real tight turning tracks to look at the wider boxes and choose dogs that have raced recently or have finished in top 3 beaten a short distance

no point being a resuming dog drawn the inside
no point not being fit as you need to hit the outside and swoop down

and you need a strong healthy dog in some sort of recent form - I doubt out of form dogs jump well

anyway I think there are filters and sequence you could build on those tight tracks - but I have not done so myself in terms of building something
I haven't gone too deep into the tight turn angle, however there are a few tracks where the favs only win 25% & 27% respectively and im dutching around them, as other tracks will show 30%+ hit rate.
By Beerio
#24759
dn6789 wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:19 pm when it comes to horse racing I have been working on 5 6 7 8 horse fields and that is it myself -- there are way more patterns and in very small fields often fav 1 gets tripped up by the pace or position - the better riders tend to show more smarts.

anyway I got to go out now -- back later
I just autoloaded all sorts of horses and greyhounds for Aus for the overnight sessions. I will run these in sim mode in the times that my actual bots don't run to gather the information to start building a theory. I like the idea you presented with the smaller fields as that's manageable, even tho in big races there's more chances of not F1 winning, but if the horses are 100/1+ then they don't actually have a chance of winning but more hampering a runner or 2 IMO, but I could be proven wrong, so lets see what the data says after a few weeks :)
By wondra
#24763
Hi

Well I am experimenting with Sequences v Starters.
I had about a 3 weeks worth of stats which I split looking for patterns.
I wasnt able to stop/pause the Strat after 5 losses and restart after a win, so had to try something else. I figure if I am stopping then restarting immediately after 5 losses, as well as restarting after a win, a sequence longer than 5 digits would be redundant.

Anyway, I can up with multiple seq for different size fields. Only been running this for 3 days. On days off now so can do a bit more analysis (see results below)
results 10.07 (1).jpg
results 10.07 (1).jpg (100.79 KiB) Viewed 1016 times
results 10.07 (2).jpg
results 10.07 (2).jpg (82.96 KiB) Viewed 1016 times
Too early to be definitive however there are early pattern emerging. The simple reason for not experimenting with different seq for all size fields (I ran out of time whilst having to do my day job ;) )
I will analyse the leading contenders to see if I can make an adjustment to get the SR up
I may drop a few of the unproductive seq and try a few other seq.
I also intend seeing if I can link several strats and get them to start after another strat has a certain number of wins, ie,.. Fav 2 strat begin after Fav 1 Strat has 2 wins (or something along those lines)

Anyway, just wanted you to know I am reading and learning from the contributions on this thread.
I will update as I move forward
Thanks everyone for inspiring me

cheers
wondra
By dn6789
#24765
I think with the SQ method if your struggling to find something that is consistent enough

then also look at start betting after x losses or wins - that sort of filter to trigger a start

for me the real money comes in streaks - you win 6/7 7/9 this sort of thing

Also if your SQ building sucks then go back to basics use 1,2,3 start after 4 fav 1 losses or 2,3,1 start after 4 Fav 1 wins

we know that no matter what Fav 1-2-3 cover 70% of the wins - so even a basic start function can lead to winning something.

you just need to look at the data and decide when is best to start your SQ

((I really recommend picking 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 ... just one of the field sizes and becoming an expert on that before moving to the others - otherwise the amount of data may overwhelm when you get into more advanced SQ or data driven picking))
By dn6789
#24766
you see me talk about betting 65 races a day or 100 races a day but not every strategy I build does that sometimes they pick out like this one just 6 races all day

strike rate 50% and a $17 profit

in my other thread someone said I just want to make $50 a day -- well there you have it - build one that ideally bets 15-20 races -- wins an average $3 a race and your at $45-$50 a day

with a 50% strike rate your variance will be very low

maybe make 4 strategies that find 6 bets a day and hit 50% .... you know there is a lot of ways to use this data - it does not have to be 100% or 0%

starting out - be a specialist build your bank and then perhaps consider higher variance stuff
Attachments
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By wondra
#24767
thanks for the suggestions...
paralysis by analysis is starting to become an issue :lol:

for the past hour I have I have been looking at narrowing down my fields...I have also changes the seq in a couple that arent working.

Im thinking going forward to set up another VPS, so I can have one live betting, the other trialling Strats

Thanks for starting these threads...it is certainly helping me

cheers
By Beerio
#24769
Since the last update, I have combed thru all the GH UK tracks and found a few little nuggets in the results tab, however I have a question how you guys/ladies base your decisions....

What do you find works the best for you? Is it last 30 days worth of results? or overall year by year stats? or combine the them all to find a baseline model and then just go by that? Many thanks in advance.
By dn6789
#24771
I am rapidly losing interest in updating this thread with new stuff

there only seems really 3-4 people who even make an effort besides me -- either no-one can figure it out or no-one cares much about making money

thanks to those who participated so far I appreciate it - I guess we see how it goes bit longer.
By Beerio
#24773
dn6789 wrote: Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:27 pm I am rapidly losing interest in updating this thread with new stuff

there only seems really 3-4 people who even make an effort besides me -- either no-one can figure it out or no-one cares much about making money

thanks to those who participated so far I appreciate it - I guess we see how it goes bit longer.
Some find it too hard to follow, others find it too difficult to put the research time into building sustainable bots going forward. As much as you want to help people, unless you spoon feed them :roll: :lol: then they don't wanna know you. As always it's way easier to get things handed to you rather then doing the work required.

On a positive note, after gathering information in the Aus Horse markets, I have built my first bot :D. It's really early and it won't see many runs daily, but from what I can see it should be +2-5pts or worst draw down for the past 30 days has been -3pts. Overall it was +22pts for the last 30 days. Happy to be stacking up the points.
By dn6789
#24774
yeah exactly - seems the one thing everyone wants is just me to upload a strategy and the settings

well this is no good for anyone as we all make the same bets - and someone will just go and sell it somewhere else - that is what happens on the internet - copies / fakes and this sort of thing.

that is the thing really - data/experiment/tweak --> profit

I am out for a while just do my own thing - will check back in a few weeks
By baddydaddy67
#24781
Dont get bored with the thread - it made me step back and look at the best way to dutch horses and dogs - a mix of F1/F2 or F1-F3 dutching - all done with recovery. I am only dutching this to £1 stakes - mainly to test out strike rate. I made my strategies up using the data I had available through the results tab and did the pain staking checks of every track in UK & AUS - so at the moment running about 120 unique strategies - only one week in. Week one saw a peak profit of £50 only for it to drawndown to a min drawdown of -£8 - now sitting at +£10.

I am using a loss recovery methos - increase stake 20% on losing bet and decrease by 10% on winning bet. Some market strike rates in 80% others 40%+, objective is to continue to tweak the strategies over the whole of July to either:
a) ditch the course / track due o less preditable results
b) Revise the dutching either up or to cover more or less of the field
c) Look at dutching by traps if favourite number dutching is not profitable
d) Revise loss recovery and staking methods to improve profitability
e) Use stop at a profit across strategies to lock in profit on a "Good Run"

The data I have so far doesnt merit posting on this thread yet - maybe in a week or two.
By dn6789
#24785
that is just music to my ears - I just really appreciate someone who speaks my language

I would bet that you have learned a lot just by setting the things up - and seeing the results come in as to what works and what does not

like you mentioned risk control when things go wrong is something I have never really touched on -- but is the reason why I insisted that everyone look for 40% win SR - so I know the drawdown in money terms could never be too high

that is what happened when I moved away from my approach to try another approach using more longer term data -- the variance within the data just made winning everyday impossible.

lastly the one thing that always sticks out to me in my own results are the streaks -- winning - losing and win some lose some .... it is a thing of beauty to watch though when all the breaks go your way and the winners flow in.

anyway thanks for a great post and I will check back in a week or so and see how your doing.

I am working on MAME tonight - classic game arcade emulation with launchbox -- another thing I like to do

stay lucky.
By woweee
#24794
Phew

Having read through all this thread. So much information. I’m so confused. My brain is totally over loaded. So many questions I don’t know where to start.
How can a sequence of winners from the past be used to make a winning system !!!

Could someone explain in layman’s terms ?I
Is the sequence referring to the size of Stake or Favourite/Stall ?
By dn6789
#24797
every form of racing produces stats

if you are unable to produce strategies that involve form then it is easy to fall back onto SQ - and use filters to help you bet in a certain pattern that replicates itself

so if you build a for strategy it might bet 120 times a day - where an SQ pattern may only use 60 races a day

no matter what no-one can predict 100% wins but this solves the most basic issue of making a selection and leading to more money in your account than you started.

it is not difficult to create 20 sequences and observe the data and make changes using sim mode - but it is up to you ... one thing for sure is if you do not try then you will never know
By madjon
#24798
woweee wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:24 pm Phew

Having read through all this thread. So much information. I’m so confused. My brain is totally over loaded. So many questions I don’t know where to start.
How can a sequence of winners from the past be used to make a winning system !!!

Could someone explain in layman’s terms ?I
Is the sequence referring to the size of Stake or Favourite/Stall ?
The sequence is favourite position.
By woweee
#24799
Thanks Madjon

How many races would we need to know which fav was the winner ?

Once we have a huge list of results.
Example
3,5,1,6,9,1,5,2,6,4,1,1,4,7,6,3,4,1,6,7,3,1,2,1,5,4,3,1,8,1,2,4,1,2,1,5,3,6,3,1,7,3,2,7,3,1,5,1,6,1,8,3,2,5,1,3,6,3,5

In the above results the sequence 1,2 appears 3 times.
Is this what were looking for ?
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