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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
#24435
yeah I agree with you - it is the net result - because if your using group TP and SL like I do - all you care about is the profit - as soon as I hit $65 profit it resets everything -- this way I bank money and start at lowest bets again

like I said I am getting 15/1 20/1 50/1 100/1 winners and this is boosting my bank every time one comes in .. and I am protecting the gains.

ultimately you have to find some edge in the numbers - once you got that then your away -- I truly believe the portfolio approach is better but that is just my thinking.

I am up about $75 after 5-6 races ... couple of the shorter price ones home .. long day ahead. good luck.
#24436
this last race was another example of how my strategies are built

1 bet number 2 @2.98
another bet number 2 @2.98

another bet number 6 @40/1

3 bets total

number 2 wins and profit on the race .. if 6 wins which it will given the same circumstances if you ran the same race over and over again -- bigger profit

it just fits really with how GH racing works.
#24437
This thread has been an eye opener if you can read between the lines. I have adjusted my selection process for UK Greyhounds just by adding 2 filters. I see less selections daily, but it has been way less volatile and some days it will break evenish or some days it will be up 4-10pts.
#24438
I never promised that if you followed this thread and Day 1 your making 1500 a day

but I will make the statement that if you try some of my ideas whether it be staking / selection / group profit SL - adding in more filters to narrow down your race selection

then you are going to turn around your betting

once you start doing that then one day it will just click - what if I did that - what if I looked at that -- this is exactly what happened to me

right now I am just watching winner after winner come in and it is just great fun - all that thought process finally paying off - I really hope people get involved and figure out what works for you.
#24439
as far as results go I just withdrew another $250 today - that is $700 all day - and my account has grown $900 .. $1600 day basically and more races to go.

if you participate in the thread I will try to help the best I can .. otherwise the thread will die off and I will lose interest.
#24443
Interesting - so if you're winning when 3 comes second - that must have been a bet in the place market.

However, as you mentioned earlier you're picking up winners at up to 100/1 and I doubt if those can be found in the place market (certainly not in UK races!).

I'm sure it's no coincidence that two strategies ended up firing in bets on 4 ;)

The key question I'm struggling with right now, is when to bet in the place market and when to bet in the win market?...
#24445
yes exactly .. I am betting win only

as he said I am just trying to show accuracy of the selection process

2 strategies selected same dog and it won

of the other 2 picks - one came second .... this just shows me that it is dialed right in.


As far as the long price winners go -- as I said 4 dogs account for 70% of the results and 4 dogs mainly for the 30% - I have looked at the situations that cause both - and tried to cover them -- it is working because I am getting plenty of longer price winners -- it is not just the 1st and 2nd fav sort of thing - I am looking at alot more than that.

right now I only cover 5-8 dog races .. I probably could just work out strategy for 6 dog and 8 dog if I wanted but just for now going to stick with what I have.
#24446
there was a race yesterday where it backed a 250/1 dog the 5

all the other dogs slammed together and the 5 broke 10 lengths free and there was only 1 dog that gathered itself together and set off after the 5

the 5 ran its heart out but the dog caught it in the very last stride - or it would have been a real monster day LOL

I was cheering my lungs out -- that is what is so fun about this - my dogs are in the finish whether they are winning or losing in this case --- it is great fun.
#24449
250/1 that would have been a lovely score :D I don't work on the Aus Greys and appreciate if you can't answer this question as it would compromise your edge, but will ask anyway lol

Which stat do you value more for your systems? Sectional or Average time for each dog? Would like to see if I have the same setting at you for UK Greys. Many thanks and continue posting in the thread as it's a great learning tool.
#24450
yeah from what I see there is a difference between UK and AUD GH racing

I would value wider runners over there more than inside

times do not matter to me - because I believe that is reflected in the price and ratings and there are plenty of people who are in that game

I am interested in the race structure and the stats within that.
#24451
I just had a bet at swindon and backed the 4 5 and 6

as I favor the outside boxes on that race -- and the 4 won and paid like 7.90

I do not bet on this in my software but just wanted to prove a point I know little about it - but seems to me pretty easy to figure out a strategy for those races.
#24452
I am not going to do all the work for you and tell you how to do it

but if it were me - I would look at the relationships between the inside 3 and outside 3 - and what races are the outside 3 winning and what are the characteristics of the race

so what if there are 50 races in a day but you figure that only 5 fit the bill -- find more tracks find more races
#24453
I see monmore is next I know nothing about the track - conditions - or the relationships there so could not say what to bet on there

but over here at canington we got that winner that paid 29.78 -- some other dog ran 2nd we didnt pick - but we picked the 3rd dog

so what I am saying is - I have found fairly solid relationships in AUS GH as to which races to favor lower price vs which races to favor higher price

also like I wrote earlier -- when it falls in the middle we picked two dogs one favored and one longer shot and the more favored one won.

anyway this is a challenge and something you gotta work on - and it will tweak to you fairly soon if you keep at it
#24454
dn6789 wrote: Wed May 26, 2021 1:45 pm I am not going to do all the work for you and tell you how to do it

but if it were me - I would look at the relationships between the inside 3 and outside 3 - and what races are the outside 3 winning and what are the characteristics of the race

so what if there are 50 races in a day but you figure that only 5 fit the bill -- find more tracks find more races
I have based my system on the dogs speed and specific box rational, but as you said this above I would have to revisit previous races and see if the above would apply/improve the bets that im taking now.

I don't want you get offended at all, as defo not asking for you to disclose your system, was just wondering what your rationale was. Just looking to improve on what I already have that's all and not many people discuss openly about systems they build and are profitable.
#24455
yeah fair enough

I do not want to just tell everyone what my criteria are and how I filter every race - as it would just get sold on the net everywhere and the prices would change and all the profit would go out of it

anyway I know little about UK racing but seems to me there is an edge that could be exploited - just not sure how many bets a day that would equal.

I would be more interested in UK horse racing maybe in the future --- Horse Racing is so much more complex
#24457
Ok seems the feedback is minimal other than just a few people trying to get profitable and making some effort to reply.

I think at this point I have shared all I want to - so I will let the thread die off .. wish you success in your own betting and hope you get the results your looking for.
#24468
dn6789 - a few weeks back the great title of this thread attracted me to read through your thoughts and advice. Even in those earlier days, I was surprised that there was so little interaction from others given (as Beerio says) that it's most unusual for someone who achieves success in trading to come back to a forum and give others who may be struggling some hints of how they can best spend their time to create a successful strategy (or several!).

The key thing you've done for me is to help me focus my analysis of whatever results I'm looking at and to see patterns and then put these together as multiple strategies to achieve a decent level of consistency.

All the best for the future! I think you may be buying a new boat or house next...never mind a new car (although it could be a Bugatti, you have your eye on ;) ). Thanks a million for all your help :) it's been fascinating, eye-opening and enlightening taking on board your thoughts and ideas. I've not been avid racing follower of any kind, so it's been great to hear some ideas which don't rely on form, handicapping and all the other stuff I find totally baffling lol.
#24471
you guys too - thanks for posting in the thread

it will come with bit more study and experimentation - like I said I did not solve this in a day a week or a month .. but it tweaked ...why dont I try this - what dont I try that -- then it all changed

I'm off.
#24550
I tried NZ GH - you need different settings for those compared to AUS

onto horse racing at moment and also linking strategies

plus now looking at sportsline integration for sportsbetting

one of my thoughts was this ...... may help you may not

I built 3 horse strategies - but what I was thinking is stopping them at combined loss of $200 for example and then using a recovery strategy of Jockey Challenge Favorite - so look at the shortest price jockey challenge favorite and run recovery on their rides .. let the odds makers do all the form and use that information

once recovery finished restart original 3 and pause the jockey challenge recovery strategy
#24716
this is a much more complex method than the other thread

I do not want to give away how I make selections here because it is 1500-2000 a day profit with minimal risk due to the selection process.

the whole scraping and data collection is time consuming but it is what it is you know

honestly depends how much time and money you have - I have given away a lot where your time to success is minimal vs what it took me