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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
#24224
OK here is some info that some might find interesting and/or helpful

1. I tried all included strategies and then a couple on the forum - but none made any money and it was frustrating as heck to just fail every time ... bet strategy - recovery strategy - the whole thing - nothing worked.

2. then I just started buying tips from various places and building my own systems - and scraping into excel and uploading into the software - and running recovery systems to help with the results

what happened was the tips had good runs but then bad runs - so sometimes they lost 15 in a row - so ultimately I called time on buying tipster tips for horses

now what I do is subscribe to punting forum and pay $99 a month for the ratings - and built a system in their software focusing on winners - and mine is like 36% - so using this method I am showing a profit and I would suggest to consider this an option

next for sports betting I subscribed to Sportsline - and put the data miner scraper into chrome - taught it to scrape what I want and then automated betting with that -- this is quite good and you can select system bets or tipster bets - so if your into sports then this is something to look at.

3. my most profitable solution -- so as you can see from the above there is work to make horse betting and sports betting automated -- every day you gotta download - sort or scrape --- and there are many shortcuts in excel to help but still it gets bit tedious as I never imagined when I bought this software that this is what I would be doing.... anyway onto 4. which is the real winning strategy

4. well I sat here going there has to be a better way - so lets look at Greyhounds -- lots of races can be selective and ratings while important are not everything because you can narrow things down and run a recovery sort of system to make almost anything profitable.

so I looked through all the greyhound data and formulated my approach as to how to select and when to bet on certain dogs ... the recovery system I use is the stake step one where you set your own

for mine as an example I set it like this 5 5 6 8 11 14 18 22 25 30 --- it goes back to start on a win -- then I attach a certain profit - where it resets the bets anyway - and also a stop loss so it resets the best back to square one as well.

therefore --- I figured out a. how to make a selection b. the best way to increase bet on a loss c. how to control a losing sequence and how to reset the bet as fast as possible.

with this approach starting with $5 stakes as above bets -- I am now making $1500-$2000 a week fully automated doing zero work (yes I did increase my bets but what I found was if I make it too high then I influence the markets - and it is better to capture maximum value per bet then bet too high and lower your odds - this can be the difference between winning and losing)

in the whole time doing it I have only hit one Stop Loss and the beauty being there is a couple ways to reset bets,

So I run 5 bots per race with a combined stop loss and take profit is how it works - but each bot is designed with slightly different parameters -- if you bet greyhounds then you probably get the picture if you do not then your probably confused.

** No I will never reveal the system or how I generate the bets because like I said there is only so much liquidity in the markets and when I started to bet $200 $300 per dog well the prices would get cut from 30/1 to 20/1 and your better off betting smaller and getting the value - than the other way around.

Greyhound betting solved -- check

Horses / Trots + SportsBetting I am still working on - but you have above some of the resources I am working with to try some things for yourself.

There is no way that I know of to make money without having some insight into building a strategy -- trading etc for me anyway was a complete waste of time.

I hope some people find inspiration in this post and put that extra work into finding something that makes sense for them .. good luck
#24259
Update:

I am not going to keep going with horse racing or trots - the issue of using external data and making a simple solution is just not happening and I find the profit edge vs GH racing - I prefer GH racing - it seems to me after watching thousands of races the prices make the difference in the end.

trots I actually have a good formula there but it may only apply in 2-3 races a day and that is not enough to live off so yeah I deleted out those 2 strategies just today.

on the GH front - the last 2 days about $1400 in profit - have made a few tweaks to just tighten it up and I guess the only thing is just to keep monitoring performance.

Sports Betting - funny you know the problem with this is using Betfair when the tips come out there is no liquidity and only when we get nearer start time we see proper pricing - I think with this it requires a custom bot that uses sportsbooks besides betfair - as no point betting when the line has moved against you - that is often the difference between a win and a loss.
#24260
it is just a lot calmer watching these races

just in the last race it selected the 2 @ $5.75 and the 3 @ $11.00

2 wins and 3 comes third .. it took a while to figure out how to make it all work - but the results just keep coming in and the accuracy is good.

when I bought tips at one time often they were not even in the finishes which was frustrating.
#24263
the other thing is it will look at the race and determine whether it is a bet or not

so of the 120 races a day so - only 70-75 maybe betting races for one reason or another.

it is easy to say well you just need $8 per race and your $500 a day

but in reality it tends to ebb and flow according to the accuracy
#24283
so yesterday I took my first loss $90

other than that have been $300-$700 a day everyday.

the difference was yesterday I made no changes to the selection conditions which I normally do daily - because as I said what you see is it runs in waves when your winning and you need to stay close to that - if you deviate then your drawdown will rise.

also I have been given thought to why racing was too hard for me - I think really I would need a full time data analyst and a programmer - so $250k in costs and to cover that my betting bank would need to be 2 mio - which is too high for me - and when you look at the real professionals I guess that is what they are doing.

compare that to GH I can do that on my own and you only need 2k bank to make $500 a day - as if you stay on top of it your DD will only be like $300-$400

it is the extra variables and more data and searching for the setups that makes all the difference - I wish I could do it myself but it is just too much work.

anyway made some slight tweaks this morning and have to go out now - looking forward to the results tonight

good luck
#24285
also I noticed yesterday in GH

there was about 8-10 races in a row where box 1-3 won

and then later then was about 8-10 races where 1.20-1.80 favs won in a row

the first one does not matter too much to me - but the second one does because I have the lower runners like that filtered out as a bet - but still bet on the race as the payoffs are quite good under certain circumstances for the others

also we got a couple 13 /1 14/1 results which offset that - but 8 in a row is not ideal.

if your following this thread another area I am honing in on - is where there are 8 runners with 5 or 6 first starters whose prices are 3.20 or higher and the 2 raced at 8/1 or higher .. often there is good value in those runners as there is often a lot of interference and even just a small amount of track sense can see them avoid trouble -- there was 2-3 of these races yesterday I know I got 16/1 on one but just do not remember the other couple results as I was not around all day.

when the first starters start shorter 1.65-2.25 yeah they can get beaten but the chances of the raced dogs winning goes down a lot.

plus in these sort of races box draw is almost irrelevant - so people who are betting with that as a criteria are skewing the prices and providing opportunity there .. and I mean in races mentioned above.
#24310
I was going to post screenshot of my bot manager but I have to link

anyway yesterday these were my results

S1 +196.55
S2 -18.35
S3 +46.04
S4 +174.33
S5 +74.59
S6 +130.97
S7 -104.40
S8 +4.33
S9 +97.61
S10 -56.45
S11 -30.00

so I am now up to 11 strategies running and yesterday profits were roughly $510

just keep working away at it and it will come
#24311
and if you want one tip from me on GH racing it is this

overall if you look at every race - to me there is about a 70% chance the result will match how the race should play out

so you need strategies based on the normal play.

but you also need strategies that can profit for the other 30% as well - because you may see 11 12 13 results in a row that fall into that category .. so if you only focused on the 70% you would lose and simple recovery would be getting very large by that point.

this is why you see that my strategies are really designed even on bad days to be as close to zero as possible - even though I had one that was -$100

yeah so you gotta think about how the outcomes play out and not bias yourself too much one way or the other.

one area for growth for me will be lay betting at some point to help balance out profits and losses as we go through the day .. but for right now I have been focusing on figuring out what drives GH to win the race.
#24322
Very interesting, have had bf bot v2 since 2009 when I retired and thought it would help eke out my pension but never made any headway with a strategy and gave up, use the bot more as a reference for results and never looked at the forum for years. just bought a new computer and needed to re install the bot, (have a lifetime licence for v2) and stumbled upon your thread.

Has given me food for thought. Thank you.
#24324
dn6789 wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:41 pm +507.77

any idea on horses how to select starting position ? and track condition

so for example if I want to lay barrier 1 on heavy tracks 1200-1600 how would I set that up ?
I've attached an example horse racing strategy which should do what you're looking for. The distance is filtered in the Markets Filter and you may want to increase the max. lay odds in the min/max selection.

Thanks for the encouragement to keep us all motivated and for sharing your journey to success.

I've messed around with dogs strategies in the past, though have always found them too variable to get anything consistent (however I never used any form of recovery which seems to be essential).

From what you've posted it seems as though you only bet on AUS (and possibly NZL ?) dogs races - have you thought about looking at UK ones too, given that there are 2 less dogs to worry about?

What baffles me is why you need so many strategies - is it because each one has to have it's own recovery?

It also appears as though all your strategies are purely odds related and based on your own observations - for example there are no greyhound stats that I can find in the bot, so are you assuming first runners based on odds > 3.2 and < 8 or am I missing something there?
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#24325
thanks for posting in my thread.

yeah I was on verge of quitting with this thing because honestly nothing was working for me but all of a sudden I just sat down and started looking through the stats and figuring out how to use the Bot only to generate and place the bets ... all this external stuff spreadsheets - data scraping - aws predictive software - it was just getting overwhelming.

last night I went to bed my BF was like 9200 at that point woke up this morning and it was 9482 - so 282 profit on the last 10-15 races .. it just is a good feeling to really get somewhere that shows potential
#24326
thanks for the strategy download have done that and will play around later sounds good.

why do you need so many strategies ?

well each works differently and has a different strike rate - also I combine strategies into an overall bucket - so when they reach a combined take profit - they all restart or if they hit a stop loss

each system has its own staking strategy as they are not going to win every race -- so when you look at a race - 3 strategies might fire and I might bet $50 and profit maybe $5 maybe $50 maybe $300 - depends on the odds etc .. so it is essential to capture the both types of races.

what I see is most times the races run 70% where favs 1-4 win the races - but you go through periods where outsiders win 10-12 races in a row so you need to capture that as well - to even out your Drawdowns -- my drawdowns are very small really so my account does not need to be very big

yeah I live in Australia and really only bet AUST GH - NZ GH are different in that they seem to be more random which can be good but at the moment I have not put in the time to study the patterns and how to set up something automatic.

this morning I have just checked and in Bot manager I now have 18 strategies which is up from my first 6 but remember I mentioned about betting trot races with 6 runners well I built that system yesterday and added it - also one horse racing one

I set these on stop when they hit $40 a day just something small so my BF account keeps building and adding money -- but GH racing is my bread and butter

thegreyhoundrecorder was where I was scraping and putting into excel before and I was downloading historical reports from betfair daily and using excel

but now I just go into the bot results and filter the daily ones in there - not as accurate but it is ok -- was looking for something more simple than all the scaping and filtering I was doing.

So I build the strategy test it and put it live - I know what the historical SR and odds are so if something goes wrong - then normally another strategy will kick in but I can see well this needs to be changed quickly.

At some point I would like to get more advanced and do more but I think I would need to hire a programmer to come work with me .... as I really want sportsline to work on autopilot - and maybe using data better in GH

anyway I work on this everyday I find it fun and I hope others take a minute to read through what I am writing as there are a lot of resources I mentioned that people could use to help their results
#24327
a couple more comments on this

1. it is not as simple as going ok I am backing box 1 fav every race - because they can lose 12-14 races easy before winning

you need to find 2 - 3 - 4 things in the numbers that drive winners and then set up that strategy with a staking plan and a stop loss

so I built 6 that work as a team - so that when they make money - they reset the bets back to bet 1 --- this makes me very hard to beat .. should things go sour then it hits the combined SL and they reset back to bet 1 anyway

this is how I started and this was $400-$600 a day

now I have added more diverse strategies and strategies that do not bet much - but combine different things to reset the bets.

2. these systems can work on their own with no interference from me - just these days I am monitoring the results vs what my backtests say they should be doing

I mentioned before results run in streaks - 3 race losses followed by 4-5 wins .... but with the staking and set up of a combined effort - it is very consistent.

I really cannot give away how I make each selection because like I said the markets are only so big and I need to capture every bit I can as that is the difference between success and failure.

but whether you do it like I am now - or you scrape and use excel - you can win at this if you put your mind to it.

.... horses I have thought a bit more about that - so if I find something I will share it - because horses are a much deeper market.
#24328
dn6789 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:48 pm anyway I work on this everyday I find it fun and I hope others take a minute to read through what I am writing as there are a lot of resources I mentioned that people could use to help their results
I'm finding working on this fun again now too, so thanks for all your hints which will help a lot :)

I can now see why you have all those strategies!

They're essentially balancing each other out over time, though still allowing you to regularly take out a decent profit.

I like the idea of stopping some strategies as soon as they hit a certain profit level - to give you more consistent returns. Also the idea of trading your strategies like a portfolio of investments makes a lot of sense and having an overall stop loss/take profit - something I'll look into.

Thanks also for highlighting that 1-4 Favs come in 70% of the time. After your earlier comments I've been running strats in Sim to work out that very same thing!

I've also just read your update and resetting those strats to prevent staking going crazy is another great hint.

I totally understand that you can't reveal everything about your strategies because the amounts staked on the dogs are nowhere near the horses or bigger football games, however I think you've given us a lot of valuable info. on how to structure our own strategies and hopefully achieve some of the same sort of success that you've enjoyed!
#24329
we had a lot of rain so heavy tracks here today so I loaded up your strategy and it looks good

I added

1. min runners 6 max 18 -- as barriers less importance with smaller fields on heavy tracks
2. bet - I put target profit per race with 100% recovery
3. made the price to lay 1.65- 3.00
4. safety rule TP 50 SL 250

also I will use this for good tracks another way

fav barrier 1-10 good tracks 1200-1600 price between 2.20-2.80 with recovery and may limit it to certain tracks where the % win for favs is higher .. some tracks favs % drops way down

if I add anything else will let you know ... thank you :)
#24331
yes I have added a lot really compared to where I was 2 months ago in terms of how I came back from nothing working to something working.

the secret is to use multiple inputs - figure out what the strike rate and DD are - then calculate the combined TP and SL -- once you have this down - you become really hard to beat and any deviation you will see it straight away and can make changes

from there you can build other strategy to offset DD and even add something else to the portfolio - to balance it out even further

if you have your core 6 say making 400-600 and then you add 6 more making 40 a day each - it adds up fast.

anyway thanks for the chat and lets see in a few days how things are going
#24332
about half way during the day +$714.07 and already withdrew $250 which I try to do everyday make some sort of withdrawal

the profits mainly came from quite a few winners in the 10/1 to 20/1 band

no real bets from the other new strategy I did - the parameters are quite tight so unlike GH harder to get a bet from.
#24335
Hmm - it's tricky to say why it's not triggered.

The first suspect is the going which we currently only have set to "heavy" - maybe we need to extend that to include "Muddy", "Sloppy" and "Slow" too?

Also BFBM point out that this information comes from a 3rd party, I know in football for certain games in play data is not available from the 3rd party source, it's also possible that the same thing happened here.

As soon as you spot another race which you think should trigger, then check the "Reports" tab under the strategy, which will tell you the rule the trigger is failing on (if you have a lot of markets continually scrolling, put your strategy temporarily on pause so that you can read the messages properly).
#24336
I got no idea - but this is leading me to believe that I may need to consider on of the other betfair managers in the future if this one comes up with these little bugs

as I do not have time to trouble shoot every aspect when what you sent me should clearly work as is

... I can sit here all day and find edges in the markets - but it is no good if the manager cannot place the bets.
#24337
Just on something else - bankroll management

looking at my results - I think if you build 6 strategies as a start - that work as a team then you would need $1500 if you were to launch into live trading

I would expect a maximum DD of $500 to be safe but with so many events if some get delayed or results are not in before new races start then $1500 is probably where you need to be to cover all parameters

could you just build one strategy and use $200 -- yes absolutely but you would not make $500 a day - you would probably make $50-$100 somewhere in there - because your number of qualified races would be lower and you would suffer more variance as stats flow in waves - which is why 6 reduces this... but you would suffer through it with the one.

anyway this is just my thought on it - what ever you think is right for u go with that.