close but no cigar - how to handle a 400/1 lay event..
Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:59 pm
Hi guys and gals
I tend to lay horses around the world, 150 to 200 bets a day. When doing so in Australia, and rarely the US, the following sequence happens every 400 or so bets...
Bet 1 - W (lost my lay bet as the horse won)
Bet 2 - W
Bet 3 - L (lay bet worked out, i got my bet right)
Bet 4 - W
Bet 5 - W
Bet 6 - L
Bet 7 - W
Bet 8 - L
Bet 9 - L
Bet 10 + then goes back to long-term trend but the losses are so great by bet 5 that a low liquidity market cannot take a lay bet of £100+
When this happens, recovery is compromised big time. With a 15 pence bet this turns into £100+ loss within 7 bets when lay's go bad in short succession! I have tried Lay 1-4, Overall loss recovery @ 75%, etc etc. Whatever i do, it is always a big loss even with small initial outlays
Any suggestions apart from get better with your selections (UK is good, US is nearly always good, it is Australia that throws this up again and again)
I tend to lay horses around the world, 150 to 200 bets a day. When doing so in Australia, and rarely the US, the following sequence happens every 400 or so bets...
Bet 1 - W (lost my lay bet as the horse won)
Bet 2 - W
Bet 3 - L (lay bet worked out, i got my bet right)
Bet 4 - W
Bet 5 - W
Bet 6 - L
Bet 7 - W
Bet 8 - L
Bet 9 - L
Bet 10 + then goes back to long-term trend but the losses are so great by bet 5 that a low liquidity market cannot take a lay bet of £100+
When this happens, recovery is compromised big time. With a 15 pence bet this turns into £100+ loss within 7 bets when lay's go bad in short succession! I have tried Lay 1-4, Overall loss recovery @ 75%, etc etc. Whatever i do, it is always a big loss even with small initial outlays
Any suggestions apart from get better with your selections (UK is good, US is nearly always good, it is Australia that throws this up again and again)