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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By danzak
#25466
Just to prove point related to 2 strategies helping each other to make profit and then reset to start. I created today for HR and with SS 15 steps from 5,5,6,7,9,12,16,2127,34,42,51,62,74 and 87 got $172 for only 3 meeting.
Thank you again DN for giving us a push to work on our own ideas with your great support.
Good luck to all of you!
Attachments
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By Casenova777
#25468
danzak wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:16 am Just to prove point related to 2 strategies helping each other to make profit and then reset to start. I created today for HR and with SS 15 steps from 5,5,6,7,9,12,16,2127,34,42,51,62,74 and 87 got $172 for only 3 meeting.
Thank you again DN for giving us a push to work on our own ideas with your great support.
Good luck to all of you!
Great results danzak. What do you mean exactly by 2 strategies working together? I know dn mentioned it before but I’d it referring to Loss recovery over the chosen strategies or is it another trigger?
By echelon
#25469
Beerio wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:44 pm I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.
Hi Beerio,

Some nice looking charts there! Great progress :D

I've looked at various strategies for UK horses, though found it tricky to get the sort of consistency which you're seeing.

Charts 2, 3 and 4 would be similar to those of my strategies - they're quite choppy and a bad run of losers will send the chart right back to the start or even worse into the negative.

Charts 1 and 5 are the most interesting because you have a really solid consistency there. Are you using SQ in those? Also from the chart we can't tell the DD, so it's possible that those strategies are using some form of rapid recovery which may require a large DD from time to time to get back on track and make the next profit.

If you're not using any recovery on charts 1 and 5, then it looks like you must have worked out some really solid entry criteria. I know that DN has a lot of knowledge of the sports he's developing strategies for, did you already have background knowledge on UK horse racing which enabled you to create some unique strategies?
By Beerio
#25471
echelon wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:21 pm
Beerio wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:44 pm I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.
Hi Beerio,

Some nice looking charts there! Great progress :D

I've looked at various strategies for UK horses, though found it tricky to get the sort of consistency which you're seeing.

Charts 2, 3 and 4 would be similar to those of my strategies - they're quite choppy and a bad run of losers will send the chart right back to the start or even worse into the negative.

Charts 1 and 5 are the most interesting because you have a really solid consistency there. Are you using SQ in those? Also from the chart we can't tell the DD, so it's possible that those strategies are using some form of rapid recovery which may require a large DD from time to time to get back on track and make the next profit.

If you're not using any recovery on charts 1 and 5, then it looks like you must have worked out some really solid entry criteria. I know that DN has a lot of knowledge of the sports he's developing strategies for, did you already have background knowledge on UK horse racing which enabled you to create some unique strategies?
Hiya mate,

So the above charts are straight betting £2 BSP prices with no seq or recovery, however I have used the things form this thread to narrow down the selections that I am putting on. It's all CSV file loaded in the mornings for them all, however it's super quick and takes me 5mins to put it all together.

System 1 - 27.91% S/R
System 2 - 16.59% S/R
System 3 - 16.77% S/R
System 4 - 17.61% S/R
System 5 - 29.17% S/R

1 & 5 can def be sequenced, as I found that starting prices for F1, F2 & F3 have a better strike rate when they are between certain ranges. I'm gonna duplicate the these 2 then I will start playing about with the seq while keeping the original bots for the profits they make to keep on testing others.
By Beerio
#25472
dn6789 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:48 pm this is mine after today

I am going to reset everything and try to do more graphs - as I think it shows the strategies better than just the numbers
Have you ever thought about doing a master class on sorting/sequencing/what your looking for? Just a question as I now I am terrible at sequencing, but pretty good at digging thru enough data to find workable systems. Or would you consider charging for private consultation on a system to improve it into sequencing?
By Beerio
#25485
dn6789 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:18 am I been working on spreadsheets all day

and found this site

excel chat -- you pay $29.99 and get 3 sessions a month

so this will be good for me - because I can get my problems solved faster - and not have to research everything all the time ... now I just need to sit down and list the things I want so I can go through the process

not today obviously will take a few days.

Also today I was researching other ways to do what we do -- and when I looked through the information on horse racing it comes down to this

.... if a horse has form and a good gate etc - the market prices it tighter automatically - so the true value of the runner is gone -- yet when you look at stats horses that do not quite have the record match the overall profit because when they win you get a larger price .. so one way has higher win rate lower reward the other has lower win rate higher reward more drawdown

so your typical way to assess horse races is really perhaps not the optimal solution -- and I think this is where SQ comes in - where you can randomize the results and pick up value compared to the punters who key into certain things.

Now I have another idea I want to explore - but it will require a lot of development -- so once I finish off the spreadsheets and get those how I want them -- more automation - more macros and easy loading -- then I will move onto that.

Not much else from me -- I hope to see more people posting though - because ultimately you go look on the internet for trading systems for betfair -- these threads provide more real world information than any you can find or pay for.
This excel chat sounds like you could just present any problem to them and just have it solved in a formula way. Seems descent and def worth the price if you are gonna continue to use it going forward.

As far as UK horse selections personally, I think that narrowing down the criteria that your looking for ie distance and just work all the way thru them all one by one before attempting to group them together. I also tend to look at stall draw positions for different tracks, as the tighter tracks you would like to be on the rail to cut down the distance/energy usage.

I won't give up on Seq betting, I will just try to hone in the 28% and try to improve it by few % each time and see how that goes. I originally done 60 bots, ended up with 7 that were between 20-27% so the only way is up really.
By Beerio
#25499
I am not IT by trade, however since starting to learn to compile the data, YouTube has been my best friend with all the supportive videos you can find on excel and formulas you are working on. Just pick one that allows you to transfer data from 1 excel sheet to another for example: SUMIFS() is one that I use for specific data from 1 sheet to another after I copy and format scrapings.

The alternative to all this is using BFBM results or Bets tabs to import into sheets then going from there.

Third and last solution is purchasing the data you need, then formatting it into the way you see fit, unless you search really hard for free sites that have the data in raw form.
By Beerio
#25500
dn6789 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:57 pm Yes I like the excel chat site for what maybe its potential is - to just get stuff done and lower the development time -- Amazon stuff is way harder for me - more languages etc to choose from that I have little to no background in.

the only reason I am writing this kind of information here - is that if someone is struggling with something it may help to use things like this for an inexpensive price.... and get you where you want to be faster
Keep us posted with how you get on as I think that $29.99 is a bargain for 3 sessions of something that your looking to do for the long haul going forward.
By Casenova777
#25508
Yea agreed - percentage of bank staking strategy (Maria) and level stakes are really the most reliable and low risk options.
By Casenova777
#25509
Beerio wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:44 pm Haven't posted for a while, however I need to send you a massive THANKS for your posts about GH Seq and also starting the UK Horse thread. Took a while to get things going for anyone that is willing to put the work in rewards are great. After reading your threads I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.

Don't give up people, keep on trying til you find that break thru. Wishing everyone green bots.
Hey Beerio, great results and thanks for the added encouragement along with DNs.

What’s your SR and ROI percentages like on those strategies? How many bets a day / a week are you looking at?
By Rendoe
#25513
Thank you for the update on that SQ resetting tactic. I had been thinking the same thing when going through SQ analysis. Saved me the trouble!
By Sr8822541
#25572
danzak wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:16 am Just to prove point related to 2 strategies helping each other to make profit and then reset to start. I created today for HR and with SS 15 steps from 5,5,6,7,9,12,16,2127,34,42,51,62,74 and 87 got $172 for only 3 meeting.
Thank you again DN for giving us a push to work on our own ideas with your great support.
Good luck to all of you!
Hi Danzak,

Interested to know how is the status on this bot, is it still promising so far? or had to do any tweaks along the way?

Cheers
By Sr8822541
#25671
dn6789 wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:19 am also if none of this is making any sense to you and you simply followed my Sportsline suggestion - the main cappers today were 3/0

so it has been a pretty good day today all round.

for the free trials and cost you cannot beat Sportsline for using the tips in the Bot or with your Bookie.
Hi DN,

I know you mentioned about Sportsline a couple of times now. Can you do an elaborate post specific to this please?

Like whom to follow for each sports, just anything else you reckon would be helpful to make $50 a day.

Also, not sure about the times they release their tips, as we live in AUS, do we have time to hop on those picks etc.,

Cheers.
By Sr8822541
#25675
Thanks DN. Really appreciate it.

Will have a suss with that promo code. Cheers.

But I am a bit lost on using recovery method, so say as per above it is 7 tips, and does 1U on all of them. so if any one the pick loses, you just increase unit size on ALL of his next picks?
By Sr8822541
#25681
Hi DN,

Yeah I understand now about Recovery. Cheers for all that information.
By woweee
#25691
Hi DN6789

I have signed up to SportsLine.
Looking at these historical games
by Larry Hartstein.

I am not sure if I should of Backed or Layed.
In the write up for the Pittsburgh game it says Lay.

In the chargers game it is not saying Lay or Back.
Very confused.

Also Larry Hartstein is top of the NFL picks. He has made 1585 pts.
Over what time period ?
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By teie01032
#25848
hey dn6789 . how do you deal with the big fluctuation of odds before the start of the race .
how to you make your bot place the bet on the 3 favorite lets say if he changes places with the 4th constantly.
By harpers
#26834
woweee wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:33 pm I made some of the changes DN recommended to Echelon.

1. I added Unsettled Markets 1.
2. Every sequence begins 1,2
3. Start betting at 15 secs before start.

Not added fav price or race length yet.
Thank you to DN and Echelon for there hard work.

Today an amazing total profit of 94.5 pts.
Unfortunately only staking 0.10p.
Hi @woweee,

Was wondering if you continued with these sequence strats and what results you have seen?

Been running yours that I quoted in Sim mode and they've been doing quite well.

Thanks
By Drizzy12
#26835
I ran them for quite some time but they fell by the wayside as I was always trying different strategies as opposed to giving things time.
Be interested in some stats/ screenshots if you wouldn't mind sharing?
By herbie6001
#27216
dn6789

Thanks heaps for all the information you have posted on this forum I have just discovered all this in the last week and has blown my mind.

Never thought of using sequence but now can see it makes sense and have made multiple bots using SQ using your suggestions and looking at recent results and looking for patterns. Have a few that already hitting over 35% SR. Have just had trouble filtering them as I seem to always make it worse probably over filtering.

But still lots to learn am stating to look into step staking having quite figured that out and what your tables you have posted previously on you step stake actually mean so will do more research into that as you mention the importance lots.

Have mainly in the past made Football and UK racing bots due to all the information out there but never found much good info on bot ideas for AUS horses and GH till I found yours.

Will go back to reading more of your previous posts. Thanks for putting this info out there
By dalecheckley
#27221
Hi All,

Not really read or posted much on this forum over the years, took great interest in reading this post and would like to thank the people who posted for the ideas and help provided to date i was wondering if anyone could give a few hints on how to find a sequence or point me in the direction of any formulas to use within excel I have 4 years of greyhound data for every track that I'm playing about with, by just looking down the numbers i can find sequences of numbers but does anyone have any hints or tips above what's been mentioned to attempt to analyse the data within excel as i have over 250,000 lines of data combined to go through.

Thanks in advance for any help provided would be muchly appreciated
By kris71
#27247
danzak wrote: Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:36 pm I had good day as well +2500 but not with bookies, just using my HR strategies. Nice looking picture attached.
Also made a progress with GH and so far 5 strategies ready for REAL mode. Will sell them through thegreattipoff.com same user name (danzak). They can be taken for free through sportsbetting.com.au just follow me and stay alert when posted. HR selling $5 a day also I can put in comment line of the tip all info ready to load into BF as imported tips. Good Luck to all of you.
Hello-are these 5 strategies profitable and is it 5 $ for all of them or just one of them.Also the HR strategies-are they for sell as well?Thanks
By Nigel007
#28639
Hi echelon

I hope this reply finds you well. I have noticed that DN6789 is no longer on the forum however you had a lot of interaction with the person regarding sequence betting for trap and fav.

I have just downloaded all grey data from 2018 to 2023 from bf using python and now wanted to analyse using the 3-14 day time horizon as mentioned in the previous posts to generate a moving sequence that I can back test to find out strike rate and p/l results.

Hence would you be kind enough to give a few pointers that you have learnt or information given from DN6789 on how to generate a sequence and the length of sequence by trap. Also if you feel like sharing other tips on the subject such as narrowing down markets based on odds, distance, track that would be massively appreciated.

KR
By echelon
#28658
Hi Nigel,

Unfortunately it appears that when DN deleted his ID all his posts were deleted too - which makes reading threads like this one a bit tricky!

The key thing DN was trying to get across by using SQ is that it's one of the simplest ways to create a strategy which has a good chance of working. It helps avoid the sort of variance which sets your balance plunging into the red on a simple strategy like Back fave 1 or lay fave 2 etc when it hits a bad run.

As far as I recall, we need to forward load the sequence with the faves which are most likely to win and scatter a few random faves here and there.

For example, don't have a sequence like 4,3,2,1,3,5,2,,, it's better to have 1,1,2,3,1,2,4,1,3,2,1,1...

I've looked at dogs history over a long period before and you may not find it as useful as you anticipate. What I find better is to filter out AUS and NZL markets in the Results tab and use the view statistics button to get a flavour of the winning % of each fave. DN implied that he doesn't look at any distant history and also mentioned that he tweaks his strategies quite regularly when their SR drops - my view is that the previous month should be enough data.

You can create sequences using traps too - though you're going to see more variance that way because sometimes traps "go cold" and hardly win at all one day, then the next day they're winning all the time! I mainly stuck with the fave sequences.

It's worth having the market condition added to ensure that there are no unsettled bets before making a new one - that was one of the things DN mentioned after reviewing one of my strats - I think the rest of the things he mentioned were fairly standard and he didn't give away any juicy secrets lol.

One thing which is crucial is the field size - for AU dogs, DN always ran different strats for 4,5,6,7 and 8 dog races (again a market condition setting) - the same applies to horses and SQ can be used in the same way, though there's a much greater volume of dogs races each day, so it's easier to test strategies.

On testing - don't use Sim for anything other than making sure that the logic in your strategy is working correctly. Delayed odds in Sim will mean that you can end up picking up different faves to those you see in live when there's a lot of steaming/drifting of odds going on.

Have a close look in your data at times of day where the faves are most likely to win. I've noticed a lot of medium odds non-fave dogs winning in the early morning UK races in particular, so running a strat with sequence 1,1,2,1,2... could pick up a load of losers.

I've found AU dogs to run hot and cold, some days the fave wins all the time and other days they're never in the running - in my view, UK dogs are bit more reliable when it comes to faves winning - plus some races in AU have very poor liquidity. I always ignore NZ races because they're too few and far between for me.

One further thing is that timing can count for a lot. You could have 2 different people loading the same strat into live with a difference of 5 mins between them and one person has a bunch of winners hitting the sequence perfectly and the other has a bunch of losers because they missed the optimum start of the sequence.

The length of the sequence doesn't really matter, though I think DN may have mentioned that his are normally 10-20 numbers.

As for odds ranges, you could download the winners from the Results tab into Excel. As a simple view look at the integer odds value 1,2,3,4,5 etc. and put these into a pivot table against each fave.

I've included some of the strats I messed around with as a starting point - though you'll need to add unsettled markets and field size checks.
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By wellsy
#28659
Good response Echelon.

Reading this raised a query which I always had around the unsettled markets. While I completely agree with the logic behind this, because GH races are often so close together, you're potentially messing with the sequence.

Let's say we have a sequence matching the example in your post - 1,1,2,3,1,2,4,1,3,2,1,1

And the results of the first 4 bets start as:

1(Loss), 1(Loss), Skip race (Unsettled market), 2(Loss), 3(Loss).

We've skipped race 3 because BFBM hasn't yet marked race 2 as a loss. But, in race 3, favourite 2 actually won - we missed it. And the next step in the SQ is favourite 3 - but after favourite 1 has already three in a row, it's becoming more likely that the fav is 'due' for a win, more so than fav 3 (which may have won race 1 or 2).

If you've based your sequence around probabilities of each result occurring in any given sample size, then the next steps in the sequence are all going to be potentially out of whack when skipping a race.

Like I said - I completely agree with the logic, but it does raise other questions IMO.

Have you considered this and have you found it to have any bearing on your results?