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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By woweee
#25278
Hi Dn

I read your posts with great interest everyday.
However I think you underestimate how easy it is for forum members to understand what you are doing.
Over the last five years I have tried many systems all lose money.
I have given up many times. Your posts have inspired me to keep trying.
However I'm still losing money. Mainly in simulation mode.

Woweee
By woweee
#25286
dn6789 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:05 am W

why dont you post one of the losing strategies and I will load into into my software and make some suggestions

maybe that can accelerate you into profit - because there is no need to be losing anymore
Hi Dn

Thank you for your kind offer.
I have attached several strategies that I will be testing today, when UK and Ireland Horse racing starts in about an hour.

Woweee
Attachments
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By woweee
#25289
Hi DN

Which web site do you use for the Jockeys Challenge Favourite ?
By echelon
#25295
Hi DN,

If you have a bit of spare time - please can you have a look over my attached SQ strategies and see if there's anything obvious I'm missing which can make them more consistent performers.

For sure I can use BSP, though then my minimum bet size is £2, so I need to be confident that the strategy is profitable (and aware of the drawdown) before making that change.

They seem to be generally ok, though don't always hit 40%+ SR and swing between winning days and losing days.

I've have versions of the UK GH SQ's in SIm which are using stepped staking which earns more on a winning day, though the losses are more on a losing day, so it seems to balance out.

I think the key difficulty for me in creating any decent strategy is maintaining SR above 40% every day. That consistency appears to be the main key to your success and it's what differentiates your strategies from everything else out there - though pinning down what I need to do to make that happen is not easy!
Attachments
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By echelon
#25303
Hi DN,

A million thanks for taking the time to look at these and your fantastic advice!

You've given me lots to think about and implement - so I'll set to work on that tomorrow :)

I hope woweee can make use of my basic strats and your detailed advice, so at least two of us will be getting closer to having strategies which are as solid as yours.

I'll make some amendments and then post updates after running for a few days -Cheers!
By echelon
#25307
Something I forgot to mention is that I've had a look at AU GH recently being unfamiliar with them and distance appears to be much more important (and track specific) than in the UK.

UK grades imply the distance, so it's not normally required to check distance too.

D (Sprint) = 285m - 305m
A (Top Middle Distance), B (2nd Grade Middle Distance), H1 (Hurdles Top), H2 (Hurdles 2nd) = 380m-500m
S (Distance) = 503m - 942m
HC (Handicap), OR (Open Race) = All distances
Last edited by echelon on Wed Sep 08, 2021 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
By woweee
#25309
echelon wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:45 am Hi DN,

A million thanks for taking the time to look at these and your fantastic advice!

You've given me lots to think about and implement - so I'll set to work on that tomorrow :)

I hope woweee can make use of my basic strats and your detailed advice, so at least two of us will be getting closer to having strategies which are as solid as yours.

I'll make some amendments and then post updates after running for a few days -Cheers!
Thanks DN and Echelon.
I'm on it.
By woweee
#25330
I made some of the changes DN recommended to Echelon.

1. I added Unsettled Markets 1.
2. Every sequence begins 1,2
3. Start betting at 15 secs before start.

Not added fav price or race length yet.
Thank you to DN and Echelon for there hard work.

Today an amazing total profit of 94.5 pts.
Unfortunately only staking 0.10p.
Attachments
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Last edited by woweee on Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:02 pm, edited 4 times in total.
By woweee
#25331
.Not sure about race length ?
Will try and add Fav price
Last edited by woweee on Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
By echelon
#25338
Hi DN,

It's good to see woweee making some progress, I've made similar changes too, though need to see more bets before looking at further filtering I think.

You mentioned in a recent post that you've not needed to tweak anything on your SQ strats for the first time and that you normally tweak something in your SQ strats every day.

Am I correct in thinking that you're looking the Results tab for the past 3 days to see if any trap (box) or distance bias has changed and if so, then adjusting the SQ strat to mirror that recent performance?

This regular tweaking appears to be another element which is quite unique about your systems.
By echelon
#25344
dn6789 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 1:53 am what I need to do is adjust prices and filters to open things up or tighten them up -- race selection is important
Aha - this was the thrust of my question, though not quite in the way you seem to be using it.

Do you find that when you plump for a fave/trap/distance combo that it remains the same all the time?

What I find (particularly with UK GH) is that for example for one month Fave 1 may win in trap 4 an excessive amount of times and bring in nice profits, though the next month backing fave1, trap 4 will lead to big losses.

This is why I was wondering if you looked at a very quick moving average (e.g. 3 days) in the results to ensure that you can jump on the transition of Fave 1 from Trap 4 to another trap which is going to become "flavour of the month" and change the SQ strategy accordingly.
By echelon
#25351
Thanks for clarifying your "tweaking" process DN.

I set up Woweee's SQ strats in addition to mine and one of those wins the prize for the most profitable today.

It's an interesting one because it uses a SQ to bet on both AUS and NZL dogs, and picked up some nice winners from each country given that it's only using 10p flat stakes.
Attachments
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By woweee
#25370
Hi Echelon

I have been looking at the odds on your UK and AUS dog strategies.
I didn't realise that on the Bets tab there is a slider to decrease or increase the odds.

Dogs AUS SQ 1 profit so far 65 pts. If the odds are changed 0 - 8.00 the profit increases to 71pts. 6pts extra.
Dogs AUS SQ 3a profit so far 11pts. If the odds are changed to 5 - 14.00 profit increases to 59pts. 48 pts extra.

Dogs UK SQ1 this has made a loss of 13 pts. Changing the odds made no difference.
Dogs UK SQ3a Profit so far 18 pts. If the odds are changed to 6 - 23 36 pts. 18pts extra.


Gonnna run the original strategies against the new odds.
By echelon
#25371
woweee wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:49 pm I didn't realise that on the Bets tab there is a slider to decrease or increase the odds.
Hi Woweee,

I use that feature quite a lot - it's really handy because you can see the effect in the totals of changing anything in the bets screen (not just odds) immediately.

It's much slower in Excel because you first have to make the change, then close the window before you see the refreshed total.

It'll be interesting to see how consistent those different odds ranges are. One thing to beware of when using the slider to get the best odds ranges, is that when you move into longer favourites, the results are less reliable.

Say that you have a SQ which is 2,3,2,2,4,3,5,4,2,3,3,2,1,2, if the bets you're looking at happened to have a couple of fave 5 winners at odds of say 20 and 23 and some fave 4 winners at 15, 17, 18, then if you adjust the slider to odds 15 to 24 you'll be showing some very healthy profits.

However, who's to know if the next fave 5 winners are 28, 29 and 30 - which you miss with your odds range and because there are no big winners picked up your profits can turn into losses.

I've set up some test SQ's using some longer favourites and excluding fave 1 as above, so we'll see how they get on...
By echelon
#25374
dn6789 wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:15 am nice $1000 win in one GH race

build it and they will come
Wow! That was some catch :D

This appears to be just a straightforward strategy and not SQ based - unless it's 7,7,7,7,7,7 lol.

I checked back through the August stats and Fave 7 is profitable in box 3, but more so in box 4.

I've set up that strat in Sim to see what sort of bets it picks up. Selecting 7 dog races will filter a lot of bets out and make any dog more likely to win than in an 8 dog race.

With a F7 strategy we're going to get a lot of losers unless we do some extreme filtering...so I guess that a distance range or grade filter might need to be added after seeing what sort of bets we end up with...
By Casenova777
#25377
Hi dn,

As ec mentioned, out of interest are you still using SQ betting with this Fav 7 strategy for example? Or just backing 7 every time it fits the filters? Can’t see how a SQ would work with Fav 7 to make sure it didn’t miss the one time a big 100-1 fav 7 wins. 1,7,1,7,1,7,1,7 :D ??!

Great stuff by the way. Really enjoy reading this thread.
By Casenova777
#25393
dn6789 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:39 amthe grind
Grinding out some impressive results. I'm assuming the strategies in grey are not based on SQ and rather just single bets on the fav?

I have a mix of some strategies going aswell, some SQs, some regular - had some good results today maybe +20/30 points but then things turned and the various SQs struggled to pick up winners and slowly grinded away to a -30 point loss :cry: .

I've read what you said about taking profits and stopping for the day but I thought the strategy was solid and would just even out at the end of the day, but nope, kept hitting losers.
By Casenova777
#25410
Yea it is inconsistent, i have a few running to see what works better, but yea they all need more filtering I think.

I spend hours going through spreadsheets of data downloaded from the Results tab but theres only so much that can tell you. It doesn't give information on the other GHs in the race, just the winners position and fav position. Do you use this or scrap data from other sites with all information on the rest of the GH so that the relationship between them can be assessed better?
By Casenova777
#25423
dn6789 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:26 am yeah I got spreadsheets - scrapers and everything bookmarked for easier access

this is what I was saying before - that unless BF Bot Manager starts improving this side of things to make it easier I am moving on to more advanced things

great they update soccer stuff - but us more hardcore users need better tools as well... basically another month and I am gone ... honestly my hands are getting sore from all the keystrokes etc I am doing LOL

I spent 2-3 days researching to see if I could find some shortcuts elsewhere - but those tools are somewhat weaker in terms of what I am looking for.

Basically I feel like I will end up pumping the info into Amazon having it do the analysis and spit out the results - or also just build a custom betting interface myself that interacts with Amazon.

This whole market is underserved - but it may also be that people who spend the money have no interest in sharing any information .. which makes sense right.
Which website do you use? The Dogs and The greyhoundrecorder are good but the results need a lot more formatting to get them into the format needed - Fav position etc.. they don’t just have that automatically included.

Yea I agree, I don’t see why BFBM doesn’t include all GHs from the race in their results tab. All GHs and their BSP etc along with the winner. They have the information available on the Markets tab, just transfer / log it in the results.
By Casenova777
#25424
dn6789 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:07 am you take this last race there

7 runners .. less chance for interference - best runners drawn well

Fav 1 box 1 $1.85
Fav 2 box 8 $2.10

the rest are all 20/1 or more

this is not a race we want to bet in -- no value anywhere

I get the feeling many people are betting these sorts of races and it is hurting your stats
We’ll I’m probably guilty of betting here then.

Fav 1 - in box 1 in a 7 runner race with lower grade dogs beside him…he should get out first and along the rail… that sounds like a good filtered race and opportunity to back the Fav 1. 1.85 isn’t a bad price. No?
By Casenova777
#25433
dn6789 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:32 am updated .. quite a few wins today already
Great work, the winners are streaming in. I’m still busy messing around with excel data :D
By Casenova777
#25439
Yea it shows consistent progress, which is good, removes any doubt whether its just a lucky spell of winners over having an edge.

Which amazon ai service did you look at? there seems to be a lot of choices and i've been trying to get my head around some of the services and they are very complicated...
I have a couple of different SQs, based on filtering races for length / fav price and position etc.. I thought were producing a pattern, but its still just too inconsistent. So thats just not working for me.
By Beerio
#25460
Haven't posted for a while, however I need to send you a massive THANKS for your posts about GH Seq and also starting the UK Horse thread. Took a while to get things going for anyone that is willing to put the work in rewards are great. After reading your threads I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.

Don't give up people, keep on trying til you find that break thru. Wishing everyone green bots.
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By Rendoe
#25465
Awesome looking results DN ...... I'm trying to find a stable SQ for day in day out.