Forum

General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By woweee
#24969
Hi DN6789

I’m struggling to understand your sequence system.

I assume these numbers are showing which fav won.
1,3,1,2,2,4,1,1,1,1,2,6,4,3,1,1

And these numbers are showing which fav your betting on. Is it one bet per race ?
How did you arrive at this sequence?
1,2,3,1,1,4,3,1,2,3,5,1,2,3,1,3,2,1 restart on win and restart at end.

Could you upload a system file to show us how we set up BfBotmanager for the above sequence.
Last edited by woweee on Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By madjon
#24978
Hi Woweee

I have attached an example of a strategy using some of DN's guidelines for GH races with 8 runners.

It is level stake, the SQ and filter applied are just an example.

**I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE PROFIT!!!
Attachments
(3.55 KiB) Downloaded 2509 times
By Drizzy12
#24979
Madjon,

Thank you so much for this. Been following these posts for ages and like many others, can't seem to get my head around it. Been asking for an example for a long time.
I'm away at the minute but can't wait to get home to test and tweak this.
Thnak you again!!!
By woweee
#24980
Thanks Madjon

This makes things a little clearer.

One thing I did notice shouldn’t the bets take SP ?

Although !!!
Still can’t see how you work out the best sequence. If I had the results from the last 50 races. How would you work out the best sequence and wouldn’t it depend on the odds.
By echelon
#24982
Hi wowee,

If you're using BSP to back in the UK in live then your minimum stake is £2, nearly $4 Aussie money.

Generally you get better prices using BSP, though when first testing in live, you might want smaller stakes.

Sequences are pretty much guesswork from what I can see. DN has mentioned before that we should dream up 20 different sequences and try them all in Sim to see which are profitable.

As far as I can see, the only thing which will help you in constructing a sequence is to look through the "Results" tab in BFBM - Filter on the market as contains AUS if you only want to look at AUS dogs, or filter as not contains AUS and not contains NZL as a custom filter to only view UK races.

The results tab shows you all the winners, so you need to scan down through the favourite column and see if there are clusters appearing regularly.

For example, do you see a general mixture or clusters of 1,1 and 1,1,1 favourites winning? You need to include these clusters in your sequence, so that when you hit the sequence at the start of a cluster, you'll get more winners in the cluster.

Maybe you spot other patterns appearing regularly, if so then including these patterns in your sequence will mean that if you hit upon the start point in your sequence and the pattern ends up repeating itself, then you win all bets in that cluster.

For example, you may see 1,2 appearing very regularly - if so, then build some sequences with 1,2 or several interspersed 1,2's in it.
By Drizzy12
#24990
Ech,

That was pretty much my summary of It 😂
You had any luck?

Dn, I've twice seen you mentioned 100% bonus's from bookies. 500 and 5K.
I have accounts (in the UK) with pretty much every bookmaker and never seen offers this good.
Please can you let us know with which bookmakers these offers are?
By danzak
#24992
I had good day as well +2500 but not with bookies, just using my HR strategies. Nice looking picture attached.
Also made a progress with GH and so far 5 strategies ready for REAL mode. Will sell them through thegreattipoff.com same user name (danzak). They can be taken for free through sportsbetting.com.au just follow me and stay alert when posted. HR selling $5 a day also I can put in comment line of the tip all info ready to load into BF as imported tips. Good Luck to all of you.
Attachments
SAT 210814.png
SAT 210814.png (186.46 KiB) Viewed 239094 times
By echelon
#25024
madjon wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:38 am Hi Woweee

I have attached an example of a strategy using some of DN's guidelines for GH races with 8 runners.

It is level stake, the SQ and filter applied are just an example.

**I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE PROFIT!!!
Well - it's looking pretty good so far! Attached are results from the last 3 days
Attachments
OZ_Strat.JPG
OZ_Strat.JPG (138.07 KiB) Viewed 239033 times
By danzak
#25028
Now I understand that you don't want to calculate SS for my 1st favorite system. It took me few hours two find SS. In the attachment you can see graph for Level and SS, around 40% POT increase using SS: 5,5,6,9,15,21,30. Money management is most important as you already pointed out.
Attachments
SS for 1st Fav.png
SS for 1st Fav.png (99.72 KiB) Viewed 239019 times
By echelon
#25074
I've looked at a lot of sequences for UK GH, testing them against historical results in Excel.

This has several advantages:

1} You can get instant results instead of waiting to see what happens in Sim.
2) You don't have the delayed odds effect which can be seen in Sim which can mean that favourite positions in Sim are different to those in Live.
3) You can compare the effect of the SQ between months.

DN,
No. 3) bugs me because I found it to be hugely tricky to create SQ's which would be profitable over several months.
Does this mean that next month or the month after your GH SQ strategies may stop working?
If so, how do you know that they've stopped working when they could just be having an off day or two which is expected with normal variance?

Another concerning thing is that SQ's are so sensitive that by changing a single favourite number from 6 to 5 in the sequence, I could change the monthly profit of several hundred £'s into a loss. Faves 5 and 6 don't win too often, however in this particular month, were there more 6 winners and less 5 winners than normally expected? Not as an overall % proportion of winners over the month, though it's possible that handful of 6 winners got the big odds winners that might not be obvious.

All this seems a bit hit and miss. If we have a sequence 1,2,1,1,6,1,3 and the winning results from the first races are 5,1.2,4,1,6,2 we have an SR of 0/7.
However, if we were to start betting from the second race of the day we'd have an SR of 4/6, plus we'd pick up the fave 6 which would be a big winner.

I can see how the SQ is giving us a pseudo-random selection which is a good thing because of the unpredictable nature of dog racing, though I have the impression that we could spend time creating a sequence which works great in Sim right now and transferred to live is ok, though in a few weeks time, we're staring at a screen with a sea of red and wondering what went wrong.

Admittedly I've not really looked at AU GH as I've been concentrating on the UK (which DN has also found to be a tricky nut to crack). It's possible that AU GH are much more consistent in their sequences - e.g. perhaps a huge amount of the time we may get runs of 1,1,1,2,2,1,1,2,2... with lower faves appearing in clumps and these can be seen regardless of the month of data we're looking at.

Anyway, they're just a few of my thoughts - I'm finding this seemingly basic and simple strategy quite tricky to tame into any level of consistency.
By echelon
#25085
Hi DN,

Thanks for your tips regarding reducing the field of runners to bet on and having an easily achievable profit target.

Regarding the profit target, I've thought about this before with some strategies I've run. These would typically hit say £50 profit most days, though if I left them to run, they may rise to £75 and then at the end of the day drop to a small profit or even a loss.

There seems to be a difference in how bets fare in UK GH depending on the time the bet is entered, however even though typically strong favourites tend to win more in the evenings, frustratingly this isn't always the case, so timing of bets can't really be used as a filter.

There is something odd about UK GH, in that betting on Saturday appears to be completely different to the rest of the week. Sunday can be great some weeks and behave like Saturdays on other weeks, so that one is a bit mixed.

I now tend to run UK GH strats from Monday to Friday only which avoids the week's profits being wiped out over the weekend!
By echelon
#25095
Hi DN,

Thanks for providing a summary of the best way to approach SQ strategies.

I've been looking at the simplest way of filtering out races which is by favourite/trap combinations.

I looked at which favourite/trap combinations are showing a recent bias by checking the summary in the results tab (I have about a month of data in there).

I've also download the Betfair BSP spreadsheets for the whole of 2021 and have determined the favourite/trap bias over the year.

There are differences between the two...So I'm now wondering which is best to use.

A possible advantage of using the whole of 2021 data is that the bias in theory should be more representative of the average bias.

A possible advantage of using just the last month of data is that the data is recent and more representative of what's happening right now.

A possible disadvantage of using the whole year data is that the bias could be skewed by results in a particular month or in several months and when we try to capitalise on the bias now, it's no longer there.

A possible disadvantage of using the more recent data is that the bias could be gradually changing (to align with the yearly average?), this may mean continual tweaking of the traps to select for a given favourite.

Hmmm - what to do?
By echelon
#25102
Hi DN,

Thanks for putting all the pieces of the puzzle together in a succinct summary. I think I've got the hang of most of the race analysis, though identifying normal and abnormal results is something I need to work on more. Plus I think I need to "niche down" in my analysis - when we try to analyse too many different things at the same time the inherent randomness clouds our thinking and it becomes impossible to see any patterns which would lead to consistently profitable results.

I'm amazed to hear that we only need to be concerned about 3-14 days history, but also very pleased, because downloading data a day at a time and formatting it for the whole of the year takes a long time!
By echelon
#25108
Hi DN,

Just one more question...

Why 3 to 14 days?

How do we know which to use?

All I can think of is that Favourites 1 and 2 trap trends possibly last longer than others, so we can use 7 or 14 days for those and perhaps the bigger odds favourites have small runs where they may win from the same trap for a 2-3 days. However, I'm just guessing here as I'm clueless as to what I should be analysing.
By echelon
#25115
Hi DN,

Thanks for your comments.

The one which caught my eye was "change the values slightly to make it harder to trigger a bet". I think this is one of the key things I need to work on. Too many of the strategy ideas I've tried out all end up making stacks of bets, whereas whenever I look at your screenshots of strategies winning several hundred $'s per day the number of bets placed are always very low :shock:

My comment on being clueless was intended to refer to SQ. I hope I have a good grasp of SQ now and have recently posted my interpretation of how SQ works and how to create SQ strategies in the UK Horse thread in response to Woweee. The comment was directed at being clueless as to how to work out whether I need to look at winning %'s from the last 3 days or 14 days. I think what you're saying is that experimenting with different numbers of days whilst monitoring SR and DD is the way to find out.

I 100% appreciate that there's no way you should give away your edge and I and many others are very grateful for what you've been able to share so far, which has been a great kick start to our own research.
By AutoShark
#25134
This topic has blown my mind! I would of never ever thought of attempting a bot with sequence, it just seems so random…. But it works. I’ve been tweaking and dialing my SQ bot as much as I can and I just can’t get it over 36%… but it still profits every day. So I assume the difference between a 36% bot and 40% is I’m going to have days when I might break even or have a small loss, I feel like I’m one or 2 filters off hitting it! So hopefully I can crack that in the next few weeks. Cheers again for sharing your info and experiences legend!
By AutoShark
#25139
I appreciate the feed back mate! I’ll look in to that tonight, I also set up some selective GH bots which are in testing and are hitting decent strike rates. Hopefully I’ll be able to tie it all together and make some decent pocket money haha. Good luck with the Uk bots. I’ll be getting stuck in to them once I figure aus out!
Cheers
By AutoShark
#25140
Hey mate, I’m just curious, how did your sequence bot go today if you don’t mind sharing results? Cheers
By AutoShark
#25149
Yea spot on, it’s so frustrating when it restarts it clears all the data, you almost need 2 bf bot managers so you can run one in sim and one live.
Yea I noticed that certain points in the day the bot can just spin wheels and flow up and down. Cheers for the response, oh I did read in one of your topics that you may have created a telegram group to discuss strategies? Did you end up doing that? Or are you just active on the forum?
Cheers
By LousyDrunk
#25157
AutoShark wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:03 am Yea spot on, it’s so frustrating when it restarts it clears all the data, you almost need 2 bf bot managers so you can run one in sim and one live.
My work around is the strategies I want to run in test mode, I run at 1% of my planned betting price, so $5 becomes 5c. I've lost maybe $8 using this the last few weeks, which is an acceptable loss to me to run both
By AutoShark
#25188
Cheers @louseydrunk I do similar now just run at .01.

DN those results make me so jealous lol and driven. Had a set back the other day where my sq bot had loss at the end of the day, which was a tad deflating back to the testing board.
By AutoShark
#25193
Cheers mate, I’ll take your advice on board and try to apply it tonight. I have a successful 1st, 2nd fav bot.
I just want to hit your sequence bot that you have been discussing, it’s driving me crazy… yea I saw your Uk horse bot did well, I want to get involved in that forum but I don’t want to move on until Im satisfied with aus greys.
Are you working atm man or just living off your bots? I assume you are from Melbourne like me and we are going through a rough lockdown atm.
It’s a personal question so don’t feel obliged to answer
By LousyDrunk
#25232
I appreciate everything you're putting up.

I've been fiddling with things for last few weeks and been up and down. Not a huge amount of success as I got a too cocky with my betting early on and just been in recovery mode since.

I've got 3 at the moment which make money over a week but not everyday. Then like you said, something just clicked.

Anyway short of it is, I think I've finally found a strategy that will consistently win. I'll be testing it for a couple more days before I put money on it but things are finally sliding into place.

I've got a few deadlines in the next three weeks but after that is when I'll finally have time to sit down, shift through the data and hopefully provide constructive advice to others as well!
By Rendoe
#25271
I started building some F3 & F4 GH strats for AUS yesterday with some decent $ results but I need to tighten them up to get the SR a little higher. Obviously you can still make some money on those ones with a lower strike rate due to the odd of the 3 & 4 GH, but longevity of profit will come from the SR I think.

I also build a quick trap SQ for the UK GH last night, set it to very low take profit though. It worked well, but it got me thinking ...... when you build a F3 or F4 (or F5, F6) strat, do you see better consistency / results with SQ or purely filters on price?

Curious to know your thoughts guys.
Attachments
Screenshot 2021-09-07 074137.png
Screenshot 2021-09-07 074137.png (11.66 KiB) Viewed 231605 times
Screenshot 2021-09-07 074322.png
Screenshot 2021-09-07 074322.png (6.21 KiB) Viewed 231605 times