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[dn6789]

ok I have some ideas etc - but not going through them as yet - as I need to go out first.

If your from the UK what do you think should be included ? and obviously need one for flat and one for jumps.

[dn6789]

as usual no one adds any thoughts without me doing most of the work - I thought more people would be interested in solving this ... oh well

never made any strategy for UK racing before so these are my thoughts

a. one strategy for jumping one for flat
b. jumping strategy only want races with 12 + runners because in those races 6-7 have absolutely no chance - from what I have seen a lot of these races are won by runners resuming or winning 2nd race from a spell.

my thought process is to analyse strength of races contested for top 4 runners in the market that are first up or 2nd run only and prices .. maybe even use the filter of runners whose price comes in

to me I think given this some sort of step stake or even SQ strategy would work here

c. flat strategy - well each course seems to have its own thing here my thoughts here would be

+ 10 plus runner races - bet only runners barrier 3-7 top 3 trainers top 3 jockeys and look for days between runs - see if cannot narrow it down
+ 6 or fewer runners - bet only runners barrier 1-3 fav 1-3 days between runs also prefer better jockeys and horses that are not resuming

once I can see stats for that then go from there and add few more things to narrow it down - or if I am wrong and need to look wider.

[echelon]

Hi DN,

I think it's worth homing in on handicap races if you're looking for winners at longer odds or to lay favourites.

A popular system was one which backed all horses tipped as NAPS in handicap races with 8-12 runners at odds of 5 or more. We're not going to be able to determine NAPS selections in BFBotManager, though there may be something else we can use to filter out those winners.

There are several strategies which focus on all weather racing tracks - these are: Lingfield, Southwell, Wolverhampton, Kempton and Chelmsford City. These tracks should eliminate a lot of the uncertainty caused by rain, snow, frost etc.

In the bulk of all types of races the top 4 horses tend to win most of the time, so really long odds aren't seen to be winning that often. Hmmm - I wonder what the odds are like for laying Fave 5?

If you need some stats of UK horse race prices to review, you can use this site which is really useful:

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

I see that the place market stats are included too - could there be any value in backing several horses for lower odds?

[dn6789]

cool - I have to sit down and look through this more obviously

I have been tweaking the 6 original ones I did today and they seem done but need a few days data on those

then will come back on this one.

[dn6789]

pretty close to starting this now -- feel like I have gone as far as I can in AUST racing and I have solved that .. so this is the next step ... maybe later today or tomorrow will start going through it bit more and setting some things up.

[dn6789]

once UK horse racing is solved then we do UK greyhounds

[echelon]

Ok sounds good - something to be aware of regarding all weather tracks is that they don't all use the same surface.

Southwell could be one to avoid, or may be the best to bet on!

I also forgot to mention Newcastle's all weather track, though that's an oddity because it has a straight mile:

https://www.drawbias.com/courses/Newcas ... tleAW.html

[dn6789]

these are all things I will have to keep in mind - might need quite a few strats

[dn6789]

got to go gym now - but will try to set up even 1 strategy to run on this tonight - will need to look through some data to see how to begin.

if people join in and provide info on this that helps I will put information into the thread - but if it turns out to be just me alone then I will just provide the concepts I am using but not the precise details.

like on the other forum one I was going to sell - I thought it would be around $50 a day and you know that would be fine ... but I am getting pretty good at this now and it actually is more $200 - $250 a day using $5 $6 $7 bets.

so yeah if you have an interest in UK racing then now would be a good time to get involved... whether it is Horses or GH

[echelon]

Hi DN,

I've been mainly looking at UK GH up to now (which I think needs to be in a separate thread BTW), however I've started to look at setting up some horse strategies.

One filter which may have merit is the selection condition which filters out only horses which have won on the same course and over the same distance previously. I tried it today with GB and IE races looking to back the first favourite only. Results are attached - net green so it shows promise for starters. I'm also using D'Alembert staking which explains the different stakes. Maybe this filter would work with horses which are not 1st fave too? - if so, we could get some nice winners.

Another thing...I believe in your AU GH and Horse strategies, you only place back bets on the win markets.

I'm sure that there are loads of laying strategies which can be profitable for UK races with the right staking plan. I've noticed that D'Alembert can appear a bit "choppy", though provided we have results coming in such as WWWWWLWWWW or WWWLLWWWLWWWW (i.e. small clusters of losers within winning streaks - which is typical behaviour of a laying system) then from what I've seen it works really well.

As for the place markets, we get more chances the more runners we have, so plenty of opportunities here too. This is what I understand the places to be with different runners:

3-7 Runners we get 2 places
8-15 Runners we get 3 places
16+ Runners we get 4 places for a handicap and 3 places for other races

When we don't have strong favourites we can get some good odds backing several horses in the place market in the same race. If we make sure that our worst bet combo where we get one winner placed at the lowest odds is break even, then the times we get a loser from having no horses placed is relatively rare, though we have lots of bets which can come in as multiple winners in the same race.

[dn6789]

I stayed awake last night betting UK horse and dogs - to get a feel for what I need to do

it is quite different from what I am used too with AUST and NZ Racing

Field Sizes - Tracks - track condition - jockeys etc

one thing I see though it some jockeys are just never going to ride well enough to win - I think in 6 horse and less races the better jockeys will win regardless of the horse they ride.

I just need to get my head around it -- and I am going to do UK racing first then like you said will have another thread for UK greyhounds .. I made about $600 so I know I can find winners - but automating it is slightly different.

AUST horse racing is very orderly and easy -- GH as well - maybe because I understand what wins -- where in the UK this whole Box 1/2 Box 5/6 seems best strategy ... wait for Box 5 to lose X races Box 6 to lose x races may even be an option

I will be back and post updates as I go - but so far no strategies done ..... for AUST and NZ for comparison I now have 31.

[teie01032]

why is there a difference between the uk and aus races ? GH and horses ?

[echelon]

Check out these links which highlight quite a few differences for starters...

https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/australi ... rminology/

https://australianracinggreyhound.com/b ... d-kingdom/

[HairyMolly]

Hi there, dn6789 (Do you not have a name?)
Am fairly new to BFBM and have been directed to your threads by some of my colleagues. Really, really like what you are doing and obviously I have to do some back reading to get up to speed with your 'theories' but they look pretty impressive to me. I note you are starting to look at UK horseracing and please reach out if you need any guidance on 'oddities' because the UK tracks do have some ; such as Beverly has a distinct draw bias in sprints as does Chester. Fakenham (jumps) is notorious as being a tight track and suits previous course winners. Brighton, Epsom and Lingfield (Turf) are very similar in their undulations and usually suit close coupled horses with good balance...the list can go on. I also have access to a fantastic database so if you need any research on theories, just shout out and I'll see if I can test them for you,

Keep up the great work!

[dn6789]

thanks for the offer and I need to do my research bit more first before I spread out -- there is a big difference for me in terms of how I structure my selection process ... AUST horses and GH is very very easy compared to UK

also I appreciate a lot more people posting things and getting involved - for me some days I ask myself why do I bother to post - but as more people try and post things I think ok it is worth it.

I want to repeat again - I was so close to throwing in the towel with this software because the included strategies are worthless and all the stuff talked about on the forum - really was not going to generate any money

but as I worked through the numbers built out spreadsheets analyzed with Amazon and rapidminer things started to shape together to what I have today .. basically each and every day I expect to make $1500 at a minimum

anyway I have to go out now - I have jobs to do till late this afternoon so not a lot of time for development work.

(I am now at 31 strategies for AUST HR GH and Trots/Pacing and have expanded into NZ racing as well)

[echelon]

Hi DN,

The Class filter is something else that we can use for selecting UK horse races.

I've attached a strat which uses it and is looking profitable so far - maybe we can use this as a base for greater things

[dn6789]

100% useful and will be used in the more advanced strategy - I will be interested to see if SQ is successful or not first.

[woweee]

Hi DN,

The Class filter is something else that we can use for selecting UK horse races.

I've attached a strat which uses it and is looking profitable so far - maybe we can use this as a base for greater things

Hi Echelon

Thanks for sharing.

Shouldn't you be using Unsettled bets set to 0 ?
Otherwise D'Alembert might get a bit confused.

[echelon]

Hi Woweee,

Yes - good point. It's worth setting up two version of the strategy in Sim:

1) With 0 unsettled bets condition added
2) As it is now

It's recommended by BFBM to use the 0 unsettled bets check for all staking plans I believe, though it's worth trying both versions for a few days to see what the impact is.

[dn6789]

I downloaded your strategy and changed like 7 things to how I would do it

and also modified and did a SQ GH as well

so far 1 bet = 1 win

on the HR side will need to really work on this and it could require 20-30 strategies to get the coverage like I have now on AUST/NZ racing

but the complication level is quite high as my knowledge is low.

[dn6789]

in AUST I have couple strategies that are restricted to jockeys + trainers

because the main jockeys here ride all the winners - sure they lose races sometimes but the second rate jockeys are just no where near as accomplished

and that is what matters - as we all know you are not winning every race anyway no matter what you do

5/7 races today were ridden by them barriers 1 - 6 + 13 - I never would have bet 13 but that is why it paid 15/1

so you really have the ability to make simple systems or more complicated ones - either approach will win - only the SR and DD will matter.

[dn6789]

just to point out some I changed right

in description changed tag from find fav by chance to find fav by price

changed the time to monitor to 5 minutes from 30 and bet time to 15 seconds before

added UK - unsettled bets less than 1

bet persistence - and used bookies bank removed reset

then I added SQ and couple little things I use.

[dn6789]

1 + 4 made money .. 2 and 3 lost money so I just finished modifying them and see how they go tonight

the 2 + 3 lost like $60 so was small loss on the night

... that first one I like 4/9 +22 ... that seems like it has potential ... selective - and SR right where you want it to be

4. seems like too many bets and very low edge - at mercy of the pricing - some days will make money some days it wont .. but will let it run further to see if I am right or not -- and look at add filters etc to sharpen it up some

3/4 had to be totally changed as the concept did not work.

[echelon]

Hi DN,

Good point about filtering on jockeys and trainers. I'd assumed that the data probably wasn't available in BFBM, though in the selection condition "Filter horses by detailed information" there's JOCKEY_NAME and TRAINER_NAME in the drop-down - really handy

There's some stats on UK flat and jump jockeys and trainers here:

https://www.skysports.com/racing/statistics

What advantage is there in using the bookies bank staking plan over other staking plans?

I've dabbled with this one in the past, though have found returns to be generally worse than using other plans.

Also I've never really understood the difference between "find fav by chance" and "find fav by price" - doesn't price indicate the probability of a bet being successful - hence the chance?

[dn6789]

yes I mentioned that before

I literally went through every single option within the software to find filters and settings to see what they did and how they did it and if they worked or not

so when people ask me filters this filters that -- well that is how I figured out what to use and what not to use

staking plans well - it is 50-50 right I think trying the various ones and seeing what works for you and your bankroll is really important - so I do not really want to say much more than that ... the one I am not interested in at all is 100% recovery.

it is early days with this whole UK race thing - so it may take a few weeks to build out some good strategies.

I read that fav thing as you wanting it by price so it reads them correctly - this maybe overwritten within the strategy itself but I just do not want any conflict within what it is doing.