- Mon May 24, 2021 11:55 pm
It's great to see this discussion continuing and with every gem posted in this thread, I feel as though I'm getting closer to understanding how to build a system from multiple strategies.
I've been collecting data (only for a week or so and ideally needs to be a lot more), which is giving me a good insight into the SR of various combinations of bets. To collect the data, I have a strategy which runs to back all dogs in all UK races - I'll probably set one up to lay all too because when the spread is taken into account it's often not a simple matter of just reversing a poorly performing backing strategy to make it a profitable laying strategy.
I'm also collecting data for horse races in a similar way. If you can find your way around Excel, it's reasonably simple to generate SR's and these can be summarized any way you like by using the pivot table functionality.
I have a bunch of strategies that I was watching today - they all had the same starting stakes with a staking plan and I noticed them being well green and then checked later and they'd lost most of the profit or turned red. I checked these in a bit more detail and found that if I'd have stopped 3 of these strategies at £x profit, I'd have been well into the green at the end of the day instead of just about breaking even.
Another thing I've been thinking about is that given any type of sports event is by nature unpredictable and variable, we need to find a means of getting an edge by covering all possibilities as dn6789 has suggested already.
Provided that we have stats showing the best SR's for particular conditions, we can home in on these and use them to generate the edge. Along with this and perhaps variable stake sizes per strategy (e.g. smaller stakes for the longer odds), we can cover all the runners - or at least all the runners we expect to have a good chance of winning.
Say we have 4 strategies, today the results may be:
Tomorrow the because of the variability, the results may be:
The key as I see it is to ensure that the net total of all strategies is always positive.