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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#25660
3 days since I reset the strats

about $100 a day average -- as mentioned limited bets but allowed AUST NZ UK IRE
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By dn6789
#25661
maybe someone will find this useful

so what I do as you know is take the top of my data to filter for back bets -- the bottom of the data to filter for the lay bets and now I decided to take the formated data and trade it like you would a rating

in a certain situation if its too short according to my stats - lay - if the price is good then back it

well only 1 of these today - I only set up 1 situation though -- but here it is

so again filter your data - get the info into your strategies and let them bet = profit
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By dn6789
#25667
I added 3 more of these - which are more to do with price -- will continue to add if they show a profit

its basically simple in that I used all the data slightly different than I normally do - and have created a price point where I am happy to back it over 50 - 100 races and should make a profit ... need to add some lays to ride out the variance - but I imagine more advanced people are looking at this sort of rating/probability all the time
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By dn6789
#25683
GH lays cost me $200 yesterday and today - horse lays going OK really lost a few but many wins

I added all these other strategies now as well to test them - but what I am finding is that - you guys have seen how I build my strategies with 40% strike rate as target -- well when your into those back and lay based on normal punting then you are subject to much wider drawdowns - because they are not quite as driven by the filters - the filters are there but if the price is good it will take the best

so due to that I am seeing much wider daily PL swings - so keep that in mind if you build those type of strategies

I really recommend to study and focus on my 40% ones - but if you go these your going to need a big bankroll to handle the swings.

As an example for me I am getting up to $1,000 a race now depending on what is doing what .. so even for me when I am betting 130-160 races a day - it can get extreme

so to counter this I am going to really focus on the absolute best strategy at some point and dump off the others.

for me strike rate and filtering are just so important it determines so much in the way we can bet and how close the road to ruin maybe.

(also keep in mind parlay strategy is quite swingy as well -- so pick and choose wisely)
By dn6789
#25690
I was just looking what my actual edge on one type of bet is

after filtering I am expected to win 24 out of every 38 bets - at average price of 2.20

so far in the real world it is 1/3 0.60cents profit
By Beerio
#25697
I 100% agree with DN as you do need to continue to work on your filtering. What started with 7 bots on the 29th of Sep has turned to 4 bots by Oct 18th...

All 4 bots are separate in the filtering they do, however they do pick up the same horse from time to time and it's either a double winner or a double loser. The graph below is based on £10 stakes and showing +£257.70 after 345 runs.

I am planning on making more filters that will work along side the ones I have but happy to pick up a few pts per day and just keep this ticking over. If you have a dream of making this work don't give up people, just keep on filtering.
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By dn6789
#25698
thanks for adding that ... every morning it is same thing for me

download stats - upload into my Spreadsheet for data -- run the macros that split it all up

go through each portion of the data and update each setting that needs it and let it go again --- sometimes I watch the races sometimes I do not

all I can tell you - is if you put in the work -- figure out the strategies that work and the ones that do not -- then build around them -- so you get some diversification -- you will get to where you want.

We have seen how people struggle with the whole filter thing -- well if that is the case do what I did - go through the bot and try every single option there is until you find something that changes the statistics in your favor

box price distance runners tracks race types jockeys trainers stall - whatever you can find

Ok I am out this morning things to do
By dn6789
#25706
I hit a huge milestone with this after months of work

now I have it so I input/load my data each day

then go to the field size -- click Macro 1 then Macro 2

and all the data is sorted - filtered and made into a table - then I just take the top and bottom settings and update the strategies in BF Bot Manager

I cannot tell you how much easier this is - and how my hands are relieved from so much clicking and dragging all the time ... plus it is so much faster to just see the info in custom tables with colors and everything

finally feel like I at the best place I can be
By dn6789
#25714
OK so my "LAY" strategy to this point has been a success generating around $600 profit in horses and $1000 in GH

today I have updated the settings based on the new fully automated spreadsheets.

basically what this does - is it takes every filter - every price - every value and converts it into a $$ value

so for every race I now have an idea of what their % chance of winning is and at what price.

based on this I have updated every horse strategy I run this morning - filtering down things further - and have reset every to $0 ... so from today I can actually see performance under the new metrics

ideally my goal would be to have the data load live into excel - it calculate the values and then update the values in the bot live -- this tells me that I may have to look elsewhere when I get sick of doing it manually myself.

This is an absolute huge step for me as a bettor - as I have now I believe pushed to the very top of stats based betting whether it be "Lay" or "Back"

time will tell on this of course.

(I am betting on AUST / NZ / UK / Ireland races)

I said a few times I prefer "back" betting because when a lay loses it takes some time for another bet in that spot to come around - but it is what it is really.

GH "Lay" betting is much more profitable - and if you take the time to study high percentage spots - I would say this is worth going after .. for me I have found 2 spots that are almost unbelievable and I am going to limit myself to those ... liquidity is an issue for me betting those 2 spots though.

not much more I can add - feel like I have covered every way to bet these races - and today this really comes a full circle for me ... I really will not post much in these threads unless people start adding their own experiences.
By dn6789
#25716
as I mentioned my stats model is really accurate to be honest

like this one - it selected the 5th fav to win - and it won at 25/1

this sort of thing just makes the whole thing worthwhile -- also I am not betting huge stakes on horses either - but it adds up over the course of a betting day.

every single thing has been looked at and broken down to make these selections.
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By dn6789
#25736
another example of looking at every piece of data and establishing parameters that allow betting and at what price - in what situation

the result 2 bets $400 profit - with small bets

I cannot go crazy with stakes because I am running so many strategies - that I have to be careful - especially with Lay as if I lost a few of those it gets expensive

anyway you get the idea - my approach different approaches work in different ways but they are backed by solid data.
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By dn6789
#25737
and this is a good example of the spreadsheets I am building

this one tells me based on any given return value which are valid bets - so based upon how much you want to make you can alter the values and it will tell you what to allow and what not too

then you need a pricing sheet that tells you the pricing information and variations

combine the 2 factors into your filtering within the strategy and you have a proper strategy that can run.

with the help of macros I no longer have to do any work except load the data and the position and pricing sheets will break the data down - calculate it - put it into table form and then ready to input into BF Bot Manager strategy
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By dn6789
#25738
also you may say why dont you do F11-F15 -- but if you think about it the more variables you introduce the more variance you introduce - because you can never filter away everything and if every strategy falls into the same thing - then the DD gets too high

especially because I am running 20-25 lay strategies as well

I think the thing you gotta realize is - your strategy and betting has to match your bankroll - especially if your strategy building and filtering is not good.
By echelon
#25741
Hi DN,

Thanks for that interesting insight into how your spreadsheets are put together.

I would guess that these tables are for AU horse races with 5 to 10 runners and it looks like the favourite number is matched against the runner number?

I don't follow AU horses, so I'm not sure what the runner number actually means as I know horses aren't like greyhounds where the runner is always the trap (box) number.

I assume that the data you're using is coming from the BFBM results screen, are you using any other data in addition to make your selections?

I did some filtering in my results tab picking up 5 field races and looked at favourites 4 and 5 (attached).

Your table suggests that only F5 and runner 5 is valid for the amount you've plugged in that you would like to earn from a 5 runner race.

From my results this doesn't make much sense to me - can you explain a bit more how this all hangs together?
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By dn6789
#25742
the simple explanation is - what bets produce the best risk vs return -- and how can I filter inside the strategy to lower the variance - all this is telling me is based upon the return I am looking for what should I allow + what should I not bother with.

you think about it -- a H8 race should offer better returns than H5 because there is more handicapping - more interference more variables but you got to find the right spots

in H8 racing you still see 1.50 favs 1.80 favs .. but what I am looking for is what can I make money on and what is too risky and better avoiding or looking for value elsewhere.

I posted some S/shots of it picking 25/1 40/1 winners -- your not going to win every bet - but when you sit here and look at the stats of the race vs the prices -- you can see when something is under valued and when something is over valued.
By dn6789
#25743
the other thing is I do not look at the numbers like you do

if I am looking at H5 -- I am looking at them all together like in a matrix

ok if this is this price - that is this price- this is there - that is there - the distance is this - (as an example) what should the prices look like

then I look at the win chance and price and place a bet based on what my numbers tell me.

or I guess if my runner is here - the others are there - I can get a certain price - I can either win or lose betting it with staking ... I am betting less H5 races now - and raising the minimum value I can get -- for obvious reasons.... because it is not worth to bet 100 H5 races a day F1 -- the profit will be small and the risk including staking will not be worth it.

I hope you get my meaning here .. cheers.
By dn6789
#25745
like I said I have all these set up to bet AUST NZ UK and Ire races with various strategies

GH is bit different - I am just AUST there.

anyway it does not matter so much for what I have -- it is more about getting your own strategies making money.
By dn6789
#25747
if I lower the accepted value -- it allows more bets to go into the pricing and then filters -- but it will increase variance and the profit is lower -- I would rather put that money into the larger field sizes

so this shows you the equality between betting various races
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By dn6789
#25749
I am thinking everyday how to automate things - how to make things better and how to think about racing in a different way than other people.

I am not a form analyst -- but what I can do is find data - refine data and run it through 3-4-5 sets of filters to find high quality bets -- no they do not win every time -- but these high value spots you want to bet them all the time when they come up .. because they will make you money

if this is not for you - then look at SQ strategies or Sportsbetting

SQ allows you to be not so laser focused - but find the conditions - set up your SQ and Staking and use filters until your SR is high enough to make it work day in day out.
By dn6789
#25750
so the top spreadsheet has a much higher value or return

the lower one is if I put it at a mild profit -- which then allows more bets to be allowed subject to price and further filters

(lets say the top one I put the value at 100 and the bottom one is 10 -- just to show you the difference)
By echelon
#25752
Thanks for the general hints DN.

One thing puzzles me with analysing horse racing data - take AU races as an example.

The horses are numbered starting 1 based on the heaviest weight being carried, the next heaviest at 2 and so on.

These I believe show as runner numbers in the BFBM Results tab and are also called saddlecloth numbers because that's where they are seen on the horse.

If we look at the csv data from the Betfair site, then we see a number as part of the selection name - which again appears to be the runner number.

Given that stall draw (I believe) is an important part of our data analysis, where can we find historical data which contains the stall draw?
By dn6789
#25753
https://www.racenet.com.au/form-guide/horse-racing

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/

https://www.thegreyhoundrecorder.com.au/form-guides/


horse / harness + dogs

punting form desktop but it costs money -- or maybe they still offer something free but I think they were changing over to everything paid

also I use skyracing.com.au then goto the form

set up data miner with custom scrape patterns for each site and what you want and scrape away.

I subscribed to the Office 365 yearly thing 99 a year - to have the latest version of excel so that it helps you -- once your spreadsheet tables are built then make macros and only have to do the scraping.

late scratchings etc can alter it as well - but I do not mind - a little randomness mixed in there with one less runner is ok by me.

also there is some feature in bet angel where you can capture the data and update through that - I may look at that when I get bored with BF Bot Manager at some point - and go all excel.

finally at some point I am going to get an excel guy to come over and go through everything and update/make changes to what I have done so far - to really streamline it better

I gotta go out shopping now - cheers
By echelon
#25757
Hi DN,

Thanks for all those links and tips - very handy!

I've not used Data Miner before, though it looks really good. Previously to scrape data from sites required a lot of messing around programming and then when you had a program nicely set up, you'd find that the websites you were scraping were updated and the scraping code needed to be written again :roll:

I guess the sort of things that we could do with this additional data is for example to look at form. Average race speed of dogs is supposedly a good way to weed out potential winners - if we scrape those speeds from previous form, then we can compare speeds with odds/traps and whether dogs win or lose from the data we've already compiled in Excel.

From that analysis, we may end up with patterns of odds/traps which are associated with fast winning dogs. So, in effect we're using what could be called the metadata of speed which is the only thing that BFBM understands - because there's no connection to form for the dogs.
By dn6789
#25758
with that data miner - if you sit and play with it - you can teach it to mine what you want - it took me a while

also you can contact them and have them do it for you if you pay them.

you just need to get all the data into excel and pick and choose what you want - how you want it - and then replace/sort set up tables and eventually piece it all back together

my excel skills have gotten a lot better - for the lookup stuff which is important when putting together tables and searching for common data

anyway it is what it is -- I have made macros for mine now - so it is much better and less typing which is good.

I am taking a break from posting for a while because there really is not much interest -- OK good luck with it and back in a few weeks.