General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
SR I do run examples which limit the ability to place a bet - based on other factors - that is has to be within this range -- so it is filtered and refiltered before a bet is placed

but in the GH SQ I post quite a lot on --- I defined the race strategy -- looked at the results it generated and then made my SQ to match that -- so it is slightly different but why it hits 40% .. I do think people miss that - you have to filter - find the results - then get your SQ done and staking

so it might take you a few goes - and you may need to change your race filters a few times as well --- this takes a bit of effort right it is not like I can do this in 5 minutes.

when I looked at the ones a couple people posted -- they saw the outer shell but not what was under the hood - so I had to point them more towards a deeper approach.
By dn6789

you are so right and when life challenges us what do we do ?

we have to change - admit mistakes and move forward - and realize that this is possible - just sometimes it takes a deeper appreciation of what we are trying to do - before we can get there.

the thing with BF Bot Manager - is it allows us to experiment and refine and that is what is needed.

A garden - needs many things but sometimes you need to pull some weeds out and its same here.

I just hope that even if you use some of my techniques it will help you find the success your looking for.

Good Luck
By dn6789
sr - here is 4 examples of what your talking about

-- set up the strategy and then refilter it before it can bet by adding specific conditions

notice the difference between these and the others I post - the amount of bets is a lot less right -- but it does not matter to me because as part of the whole they add value and make selections that perhaps another one misses

now some people will not understand this approach - but for those that do - the results are there for the taking
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By dn6789
something else unrelated to some degree but when I was researching how to go to the next level I came across this guy ... ibek5BK6tg

now you look at his videos and the amount of math he puts into it and the models he is building -- yet the real world success I would say that what we are making here is better in terms of return

anyway I will let you make your mind up and see what you think.
By dn6789
but I have to say the amount of money you can bet on a football game or nba or whatever is much higher than you can bet on a Fav 8 at cannington on a wednesday night

part of the reason this wins is due to the odds received - but if you increase your bet size too much and influence the market - then it wont win long term or your edge will go down.
By Sr8822541
dn6789 wrote:sr - here is 4 examples of what your talking about

-- set up the strategy and then refilter it before it can bet by adding specific conditions

notice the difference between these and the others I post - the amount of bets is a lot less right -- but it does not matter to me because as part of the whole they add value and make selections that perhaps another one misses

now some people will not understand this approach - but for those that do - the results are there for the taking
Thanks DN.

As far as I understood,

You first filter the races with the odds range where you feel like Top Fav's would win. Now you have the race results with above odds filter, so will build the SQ based on the trend with occasional Fav 3, 4, 5 also included in the sequence to ride the variance. Then, plan the staking.

I have filtered the my SQ with Race distance, Fav 1 odds, then had few SQ to go along with it. But Didn't check the results page from my data to formulate a sequence as I thought this will vary day to day. I just had more 1st and 2nd Fav in the SQ which was not working as yours did, so I gave up on that and making money from other SQ but with different logic.

I have a backing bot with a SR of 45% which is achieved through just filtering the races, but it can also have a long loss streak and not based on SQ. So I am currently figuring out a proper staking plan and Recovery method for it, As 100% reco is not good as per my analysis with Excel.

But I do not understand the ones in this Picture, are these A, B, C & D are Fav 1 to Fav 4 bots? or Different versions of Sequence bots?
By dn6789
if you got a long losing streak you have a flaw somewhere

maybe focus on smaller field sizes first
By Sr8822541
Hi DN,

Took a small break from analysis. So the loss streak can happen but of course it is not often. should be prepared for the worst though. Like you said your SQ bot max had a 10 or 11 loss streak, but usually its around 4 to 5 losses.

Also, I am working on other strategy, backing two dogs every race with certain odds range, so I achieve a 70% Market SR, even it has loss streak with my analysis over past 1.5 year data, to be exact 5 Market loss streak happened 34 times, 6 Market loss streak 13 times etc., Which is not threatening when looked as a whole, but these rare occurrences can wipe the profits. So don't want to have a aggressive recovery here, looked at individual Step Stake for both Fav's, but the graph is not how I want it to be.

So yeah, stuck at implementing a successful staking plan, currently backing two dogs in a single bot uses Dutch staking which ensure profit if either of them wins, but with Step staking I am losing this edge, as sometimes it is having small loss even when one of the dog wins. I played around with different step stake sequence to see if graph changes any better, but no luck.

Let me know your thoughts on this.
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By dn6789
yeah this was one of the things I was trying initially with the software and I gave up on it. (backing two dogs with recovery)

the losing streaks are brutal and the bets got too high for me and then the odds would get lowered - so I decided this was not for me.

--- on my new AUST Horse Dalembert I put the stop point at 7 -- because I know 5-6 is usually the max but 10-11 is possible so that locks on the loss and reduces bet back.

this is my take on step staking

it firstly depends on the price

ie if your backing a 5/1 -- then you want to go step stake like this

5 / 5 / 5.25 / 5.95 6.75 8 9.25 10.45 .. so extend it out to 15 which covers the 11/12

now if its fav ie 1.95 - 2.80 -- then 5 6 8 10 12.65 etc a little more aggressive with the bets due to higher SR

but even this wont help in that situation.

for AU dogs -- I think betting either by price - position - fav position or SQ with a bunch of filters should generate a much more stable graph than what your seeing there.

if none of that works then look at LAY betting and figure out the best times to lay the FAV 1 and see what the Drawdown looks like there.

other than that maybe using the function bet after losses may work for you - use my example and set it to bet after 10 losses - that would lower your drawdown right down - just not sure how many bets a day you would have .. but anyway you would not lose money.
By dn6789
also I think it is such a good idea to post the graphs like we have been doing lately - honestly it just makes it easier to understand.
By dn6789
something else you could try is this

go get the racecallers tips for the races - and if your selections are not in his Top 4 - then no bet on the race

some of these guys it is all they do - call the GH and they know the dogs quite well - so sure they are not always right obviously -- but that might also help with any losing streak

I do not use this myself - but I thought about using it at one time.
By Sr8822541
Thanks for the quick response.

Good to know you tried it already, yeh even at 70% SR, it just doesn't feel confident enough. I have to try my best with the Sequence yet, so will give it a go next.

I tried the Lay 1st Fav after certain conditions like mostly based on sequence, but had some errors with BF data or Markets order, which screwed up a little with my live bot, upon checking with BF team, Bet after X rule sequence works better when done track wise. So I left it there.

Definitely there are still different ways out there which I have to try from your posts. Hopefully something soon.
By dn6789
my UK SQ Horse I do not run a tonne of variations I try to make changes to just 1 strategy - because it is not my main thing.

the one thing that has helped my strike rate quite a bit here is to use that option bet after Fav 1 loses a certain number of races and then start - with the SQ

also lowering the number of horses allowed per race -- this is getting me to that 75-80 off Maria staking so perhaps try that.
By dn6789
the other thing about UK Racing - when I finish the projects I am on now - then I am going to give this Proform thing a try and see how that goes

that would be the last possible way to use this software -- so if you have tried that let us know how it went and how easy to use it is.
By dn6789
my combined UK Lay and UK Sq on the minimum bet is about $80-$100 a day

got some good priced winner overnight - but I must say - I have advanced my statistics now so that probably is having an impact in terms of being more consistent
By dn6789
I am still running UK Horse and it makes money - I missed quite a decent parlay last night in the UK so took some edge of it -- but I am looking to build up stakes quickly in parlays to see if I cannot get like a 100k day or something like that.

ok out for today - keep working at it is all I can say.
By dn6789
I am betting UK horse pretty much everyday and for the most part seems ok -- I am looking at overall profits and not just one track or country etc - so cannot give you a lot of feedback really

but be aware I am quite active in AUST NZ UK + Ireland on my wide variety of strategy types
By dn6789
there is so much information in these threads - and just flipping back through it - I really experimented with a lot of different things with real funds to give you the fastest shortcuts possible

again for me it comes down to this -- you gotta try to find races with a common theme - and then use SQ or other filters to bet on them.

you saw my spreadsheet where it will go through the data and tell me what to allow to bet on and what not too -- then you need a price component which allows you to make that bet and win - because there is always a price for the bet where you will lose as well.

so when you have that - you can then further filter by looking at the field and see where your best chance of winning is.

..... for rough example ... you calculate in a 9 horse field if Fav 1 is drawn in 7 and is priced between 3.50 and 4.10 and the 2nd fav is priced 4.40 / 4/70 and third fav or 5.40/5.60 and 4th fav is 7.50/7.80 and all other runners are 12/1 or longer -- and fav 2 draws B1 over 1200m with F3 in B8 or 9 - after all other filtering is done then you place the bet .. if not you wait for the next one.

or you can bet F2 over 1200m if these conditions are met .. as you have seen me - I look at them all - because ultimately if the price is good you need to put your money down.

Also you can combine them as well --- just a tonne of options really -- it just comes down to your filtering abilities.

nothing more to say on this either -- I may start a new thread at some point but for right now I am just going to leave it .. it is perhaps hard to get your feet wet -- but once you do - and you see the numbers flow through - it gets fairly easy.
By dn6789
anytime we post a screenshot it gets 4,000 views - but we only get 2-3 comments

I guess people search betfair bots and arrive here at some point - because all the alternative bots - offer absolutely no guidance or thought process at all

at least here we discuss where to look and how to structure something that can win.

I am pretty torn as to add more things to these threads or not -- I will think a bit more on it.
By sandres53
Hi DN,

I understand your position. But for me you are a reference in greyhound bets. I am working hard on the greyhounds / Horse with decent results. it's for my retirement. Thank you for your help.
B....: Memphisflash (your alter ego ...).
happy new year 2022
Go Go
By dn6789
sandres like I said I have advanced my excel quite a bit - so yeah given the complete lack of interest on the forums except if you give everything away - I need to think whether it is even worth it to me to assist any further.
By Rendoe
There's a lot of people here that do appreciate your input and your generous posts. I'm certainly one of them.

Speaking for myself I have never been sensational with analysing numbers, so this I feel is my weakness in trying to follow your approach(es). Time is my other issue, as a single Dad working two jobs this often is something I fall asleep trying to get to work.

My lack of commenting is not a sign of lack of appreciation, nor is it a lack of a desire to make it work .... confidence is more like it. You have obviously done very well, and in a relatively short mount of time, and believe me, I understand your position in not wanting to give too much away and lose your edge in the market, especially given what's happened in the past for you.

I appreciate your posts and have enjoyed seeing you succeed.
By dn6789
you are one of a handful of people who bother to respond at all this is the whole issue

people just want everything done for them and no work at all or they do not bother to post anything.