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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#25218
last night UK SQ Horse

honestly not sure with this UK stuff yet -- some days profit some days break even and I had couple loss days as well

tried quite a few things -- but as normal when you get a 50% SR there is no way to lose really


last night I was thinking about recovery - step - flat - price - or bet with a stronger recovery because in my SQ your seeing a normal 3 4 5 loss sequence then win -- which is not a lot of money really -- but I hesitate to commit to something that goes against what I believe

a much safer way for the future will be if this filter gets added that I am asking for --- increase bet - or bet when short term SR is above long term -- do not bet or reduce bet if short term SR is below long term

that way it will lower dollar amount of drawdowns and increase profits -- especially on days where everything is going well and your winning 5 - 6 -7 - 8 bets in a row
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By dn6789
#25219
so yesterday I built out another 13 strategies related to what we have discussed in these threads and variations of them and staking.

now have 20 Forum Strategies

UK Horse SQ
4 Forum SQ Fav
Horse SQ
Pure SQ

then I added betting via Greyhound and betting by fav

so some people wanted the higher risk and some the lower.

what I did this morning was link the Fav 3-8 to the GH SQ -- so they reset at a certain profit - which will help both as the higher risk bets are not always going to win - while the SQ remains steady but if some roughies come home will allow it to restart

I now estimate that these will make $800-$1000 a day in total -- yesterday alone the roughies ones made $300 as another long price one came home - but we will have to see how well I have filtered the races as to whether that sort of thing can be repeated.

Lastly by linking everything together in some fashion is going to mess up my screenshotting - because the stats are going to reset all the time -- something again I have asked to fix.

OK I am really tired this morning - so will monitor these things during the day and make some report in about 12 hours ... good luck today.

(as usual if you want some tips or ideas on these new ones or some guidance on the old ones - participating is the key to that - I get bored speaking to myself)

++ I did not bother making a Fav 1 or Fav 2 strat -- the idea was to show people you can focus on any one thing and make a profit -- anyone can do the Fav 1 or 2 on their own ... but winning with a Fav 6 or Fav 8 strategy is a bit of a challenge.
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By dn6789
#25220
so I mentioned for those 20 strategies I was expecting $800-$1000 a day profit average

what about expected drawdown ?

I do not have the number yet obviously but I would expect DD of $300-$400 and I have $1000 stop loss attached to the whole thing.

more will be revealed after today really.
By dn6789
#25221
after a couple races you can see how it will work - while each strategy is designed to win on its own - they will have ups and downs within the cycle and some may have losing days due to restrictions on bets they place

but you get the picture here +35 after a few races

also cleaned everything up and changed descriptions in some
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By dn6789
#25229
ok lets make some observations about yesterday

total profit and loss from the 22 strategies +1600 roughly

pretty much every idea I used made money - but lets talk Horse SQ first because those did not reset and I can screenshot them

Horse Profit was +$305

UK Horse SQ did what we normally expect to see 5/10 50% +55 -- I am ok with this - it is more to show that SQ can work anywhere - but in saying that our UK results are bit up and down

AUST Horse SQ -- the main thing we found was using recovery makes a huge difference to profit - step and price range grind a profit but recovery uses the strike rate to deliver much more profit

have always stayed away from this as we all know it adds more risk to the equation.

Drawdown wise looks like around the $250 mark was as far as it dipped at any point.

So leaving horse behind - I used 4 different approaches for GH

Highly filtered GH
SQ GH
GH by box position
GH by Fav position focusing on higher FAV

Highly filtered did its part +$195 -- this is the most consistent one I have all 50% SR kind of stuff
SQ GH +280 - we have discussed this alot not much more to say
GH by number +$400 the only ones that need to be tweaked are 1 + 4 the others all made money
GH by Fav -- this one day to day can be anything because you hit long prices and it banks big profits Fav 8 did not win on but 13 other ones hit and that was about $500 - mainly because of a $10 hit on big price and few $6

also added a Sshot of a run so you can see that there are 2 things that build the profits -- when you see these - where you win quite a few close together -- and the long shots when they hit for $300 $400 $500


I do not know what else to say really except if your struggling or things not working how you want them too -- break it down to one thing and simply work on that until you master it -- try different things and it will come

horses - dogs - trots I bet on them all yesterday and the strategies I have discussed worked.

((my recovery was set to only recover 40% max 50 between 2.5 and 5 .. please be careful if you use it in your strategies and allow extra capital to cover it as needed .... also it will only work in strategies you have a really high strike rate))

(((Fav 5-8 strategies these are open to high swings so make sure you have some filters to keep your DD low - and while yesterday worked out - does not mean it will work everyday like some of the other strategies -- slow step staking is what I use)))
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By dn6789
#25238
same today up about 800 so far

I do not know how to motivate people any more than I have -- all these strategies are based solely on what I talk about here and heck many of them I wrote yesterday.
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By sleeves008
#25240
DN Your sequence threads have started me thinking in a different way to use BF BM. I have had the software for over 3 years with varying luck but never consistent profits. I think using all your guidance I can work it out and get some sort of consistency, the ingredients are there, now to make the meal. It is achievable and I like the challenge as you do. Appreciated, I've been close to giving up too.
By dn6789
#25248
what has become clear after testing on AUST SQ Horse and UK SQ Horse

is that it is more profitable to use recovery than the other forms of staking -- this is solely based on the strike rate really

if your SQ can match mine then give it a try -- on AUST SQ Horse I am only running recovery now - no point using the other 2 and tying up money ... also my first bet is like $5 so it does not really build large bets so far anyway - obviously if you have a strike rate of 10% then well things would be different
Attachments
ukhorse.PNG
ukhorse.PNG (36.05 KiB) Viewed 1018 times
By dn6789
#25250
I would appreciate if you think my suggestions for additions to the bot are worthwhile in the support thread to please comment over there -- otherwise we will never get the things that we really need to make this better and safer

my last suggestion over there is to add a recovery % before allowing recovery bets -- as we now see this is kind of crucial for safety reasons - especially if your not monitoring your bot all day
By dn6789
#25251
dn6789 wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:37 pm what has become clear after testing on AUST SQ Horse and UK SQ Horse

is that it is more profitable to use recovery than the other forms of staking -- this is solely based on the strike rate really

if your SQ can match mine then give it a try -- on AUST SQ Horse I am only running recovery now - no point using the other 2 and tying up money ... also my first bet is like $5 so it does not really build large bets so far anyway - obviously if you have a strike rate of 10% then well things would be different
so if after another 2-3 days UK SQ with recovery continues to do well stats wise then that will be the only one of these I run

I am not aiming to increase my stake here it will remain at starting $5 -- again this is more to show that you can win with SQ and you can apply same tactics on UK with mods from the AUST version.
By dn6789
#25252
another comment from me would be - most of my strategies $100 or $200 is all you need as the strategy will make money and grow your balance each day - giving you more drawdown security during the day

but when you add recovery and it is the first week of running the strategy - I would suggest $300-$500 per strategy (for $5 initial bet) --- as I know what I am telling you works but using recovery does not come without added risk

maybe start with step staking to control that and as you grow your account move into recovery -- or as I said start with higher balance to be safe.
By dn6789
#25266
the stats are hitting their numbers that we have seen elsewhere

recovery and normal fairly close though that is different from what we saw in AUST
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By dn6789
#25291
in UK results the recovery one is taking the lead like we saw in AUST

I am only going to run the recovery one now
Attachments
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By echelon
#25296
Hi DN,

I thought you were anti-recovery! :shock:

Or maybe it was just 100% recovery that you mentioned would eventually blow our accounts.

What settings are you using to ensure that recovery doesn't go crazy and start placing massive stakes to get the losses back?
By dn6789
#25297
yeah up till now I never even mentioned it because I did not want anyone to blow their account

but consider my condition today

my start bet is $5 -- I am using 40% recovery with recovery only between 2.60 - 5

for my account size this is extremely low risk - but for someone else it maybe risky - so you have to make this work within what you have available

I am just really going for what makes the most money

(no point me running step,price and recovery - I just went with what makes the most)
By echelon
#25300
I've only used recovery so far to make poor laying strategies appear better than they actually are :lol:

I've dabbled with 100% and 50% and I'm sure I've tried 40% at one stage too.

I do like the odds range option, particularly when you're laying, you don't want recovery to be placing massive stakes at crazy odds...because as we all know, it's only a matter of time until that no-hoper romps home and sends us to the poor house!

You've mentioned a good point about tailoring recovery to our account size and knowing what to expect in terms of risk.

Maybe a "tamed" recovery is the way to go for some strategies...it's something I'll check out, so thanks for highlighting it and explaining your settings.
By dn6789
#25302
if he builds strike rate into recovery as well that will be helpful

so that would let you say I only want recovery between 2.60 - 5

but also the strike rate of the strategy has to be 32% say -- so if your strategy has a bad day and strike rate drops then it will not allow the recovery process to work

this also will make it safer

((for that matter we really want to be saying if my strategy strikerate is 32% bet -- if it falls below that wait till it rises above before placing a bet -- so if you go through a bad run it does not hurt as much))
By dn6789
#25386
my UK SQ Horse strategy while having very conservative betting is making money pretty much everyday now - so I am not making any changes with it

the one thing I am doing now - is in terms of strategy development I have made a bunch more Horse Strategy which I am running - but I have spent a lot of time looking at other software and AI integration into what I am doing - so its automatic and not me slamming my way through spreadsheets etc all the time

we asked this bot developer to add some features and if those happen then I will keep posting -- otherwise will move onto more advanced software where I can do more things ... the reason for that is simple - I am dealing with much larger sums of money now than when I started - so I require more precise tools.
By dn6789
#25387
I know I said I would do UK GH - but most likely I will not - as I mentioned my daily profits have continued to grow and I need to protect my investment of time to this point - and I have shown I can beat UK Horse albeit at lower numbers than AUST.

anyway I think you understand what I am saying - I do not need UK GH as a profit source - so I just want to focus on what is making me money now sort of thing.
By Sr8822541
#25397
dn6789 wrote:so yesterday I built out another 13 strategies related to what we have discussed in these threads and variations of them and staking.

now have 20 Forum Strategies

UK Horse SQ
4 Forum SQ Fav
Horse SQ
Pure SQ

then I added betting via Greyhound and betting by fav

so some people wanted the higher risk and some the lower.

what I did this morning was link the Fav 3-8 to the GH SQ -- so they reset at a certain profit - which will help both as the higher risk bets are not always going to win - while the SQ remains steady but if some roughies come home will allow it to restart

I now estimate that these will make $800-$1000 a day in total -- yesterday alone the roughies ones made $300 as another long price one came home - but we will have to see how well I have filtered the races as to whether that sort of thing can be repeated.

Lastly by linking everything together in some fashion is going to mess up my screenshotting - because the stats are going to reset all the time -- something again I have asked to fix.

OK I am really tired this morning - so will monitor these things during the day and make some report in about 12 hours ... good luck today.

(as usual if you want some tips or ideas on these new ones or some guidance on the old ones - participating is the key to that - I get bored speaking to myself)

++ I did not bother making a Fav 1 or Fav 2 strat -- the idea was to show people you can focus on any one thing and make a profit -- anyone can do the Fav 1 or 2 on their own ... but winning with a Fav 6 or Fav 8 strategy is a bit of a challenge.

Hi DN,

Can you please let me know if the Fav specific bots from Fav 3 to 8, have box related filters or race grade filters in them?

Because I tried this with some distance and odds filters and I backed all fav 3 to Fav 8 every race depending on the field size, on some days it made profit and on others it was in big negative. So I ditched them.

As you also mentioned these are bit random unless hit a long shot that day. Just wanted to know if you use box filters to give you any edge. Cheers.

Also saw your latest post, that you might choose a different bot if BF doesnt come up with filters you asked, i understand you need safe filters with the money you are betting, but in that case it will be a loss to the forum community to lose someone who shares their knowledge here. Anyway hope they implement what you asked for and looking forward to your reply on above. Cheers.
By dn6789
#25398
thanks yeah behind the scenes here I have moved rapidly so I need more things to build more advanced strats obviously

To answer your question and a general comment on what else I see - is that you have to think in a bigger sense of the problem in front of you.

first you have to frame the market your betting in by defining your fav 1 condition --- at what price does fav 1 have to be to allow the most fav 8 as an example to win -- and then go down the line to find the set up for that

then same for boxes - what boxes allow Fav 8 to win the most races vs other runners - so Fav 1 might need to be 5 fav 2 7 etc

next what distance ranges produce the widest range of results - which is what you need as well.

So to say you need one filter to be betting on Fav 8 -- no - you need to look at the total race structure - and per day you might only have 7 bets but if you win 1 you will be a mile in front -- if you have a total loss it is very small and will not hurt your bankroll

the key to these longer price fav is the pricing -- most of the time these are 30 40 50 /1 but like I showed you I got 210 /1 the other day they pay massive overs -- but you need a proper strategy and your bankroll is different than when you build something for fav 1.

It is not - do this one thing and you make $100 a day - you need to be doing 4 5 6 things - to give you a big enough edge over other punters

I hope that helps
By dn6789
#25399
this is why my Forum Horse SQ has become so good -- it defines the race a certain way where there are only a limited number of results -- we then use the SQ to cover those results - then we stake it properly

and that thing just churns out money day in day out

the one difference in GH to Horse is the interference in GH racing -- but I am real proud of my GH strategy - sitting here watching them bet - and picking 1st 2nd and 3 rd in some races - the return depending on which one wins - is really nice... could never have dreamed it was possible at one point in time where I was ready to give up.
By Sr8822541
#25400
Cheers DN. I will analyse box stats and will run them in simulation. I get you, we just need to favour all conditions like distance, box, odds where a higher fav can win.

Also, from SQ recently i am making decent coin, but not just exactly like yours, mine is mostly based on bet after x wins or losses.

So for your sequence GH bot, say the next in the sequence to bet is number 3. Which is a 3rd Fav. So you will have filters within sq bot, to favour all conditions where a 3rd Fav will win? so bot will wait and places bet once it favours a 3rd Fav?
By Rendoe
#25401
Hi DN,
I just wanted to say thank you for all that you have shared to date, it's been unbelievably frustrating and interesting in equal measures and I have come close to throwing in the towel too.
My wife commited suicide last year and I'm trying to get this working in between managing the kids and their school etc. I'm highly motivated to get this to work after reading your story and watching your posts progress with more and more knowledge (obviously after many trial and error runs).
Your challenge to those reading to think more critically has been awesome, 500 ways to make money if you frame it properly.