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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#25402
SR I do run examples which limit the ability to place a bet - based on other factors - that is has to be within this range -- so it is filtered and refiltered before a bet is placed

but in the GH SQ I post quite a lot on --- I defined the race strategy -- looked at the results it generated and then made my SQ to match that -- so it is slightly different but why it hits 40% .. I do think people miss that - you have to filter - find the results - then get your SQ done and staking

so it might take you a few goes - and you may need to change your race filters a few times as well --- this takes a bit of effort right it is not like I can do this in 5 minutes.

when I looked at the ones a couple people posted -- they saw the outer shell but not what was under the hood - so I had to point them more towards a deeper approach.
By dn6789
#25403
Rendoe

you are so right and when life challenges us what do we do ?

we have to change - admit mistakes and move forward - and realize that this is possible - just sometimes it takes a deeper appreciation of what we are trying to do - before we can get there.

the thing with BF Bot Manager - is it allows us to experiment and refine and that is what is needed.

A garden - needs many things but sometimes you need to pull some weeds out and its same here.

I just hope that even if you use some of my techniques it will help you find the success your looking for.

Good Luck
By dn6789
#25404
sr - here is 4 examples of what your talking about

-- set up the strategy and then refilter it before it can bet by adding specific conditions

notice the difference between these and the others I post - the amount of bets is a lot less right -- but it does not matter to me because as part of the whole they add value and make selections that perhaps another one misses

now some people will not understand this approach - but for those that do - the results are there for the taking
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By dn6789
#25405
something else unrelated to some degree but when I was researching how to go to the next level I came across this guy

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfSnsW ... ibek5BK6tg

now you look at his videos and the amount of math he puts into it and the models he is building -- yet the real world success I would say that what we are making here is better in terms of return

anyway I will let you make your mind up and see what you think.
By dn6789
#25406
but I have to say the amount of money you can bet on a football game or nba or whatever is much higher than you can bet on a Fav 8 at cannington on a wednesday night

part of the reason this wins is due to the odds received - but if you increase your bet size too much and influence the market - then it wont win long term or your edge will go down.
By Sr8822541
#25407
dn6789 wrote:sr - here is 4 examples of what your talking about

-- set up the strategy and then refilter it before it can bet by adding specific conditions

notice the difference between these and the others I post - the amount of bets is a lot less right -- but it does not matter to me because as part of the whole they add value and make selections that perhaps another one misses

now some people will not understand this approach - but for those that do - the results are there for the taking
Thanks DN.

As far as I understood,

You first filter the races with the odds range where you feel like Top Fav's would win. Now you have the race results with above odds filter, so will build the SQ based on the trend with occasional Fav 3, 4, 5 also included in the sequence to ride the variance. Then, plan the staking.

I have filtered the my SQ with Race distance, Fav 1 odds, then had few SQ to go along with it. But Didn't check the results page from my data to formulate a sequence as I thought this will vary day to day. I just had more 1st and 2nd Fav in the SQ which was not working as yours did, so I gave up on that and making money from other SQ but with different logic.

I have a backing bot with a SR of 45% which is achieved through just filtering the races, but it can also have a long loss streak and not based on SQ. So I am currently figuring out a proper staking plan and Recovery method for it, As 100% reco is not good as per my analysis with Excel.

But I do not understand the ones in this Picture, are these A, B, C & D are Fav 1 to Fav 4 bots? or Different versions of Sequence bots?
By dn6789
#25409
if you got a long losing streak you have a flaw somewhere

maybe focus on smaller field sizes first
By Sr8822541
#25477
Hi DN,

Took a small break from analysis. So the loss streak can happen but of course it is not often. should be prepared for the worst though. Like you said your SQ bot max had a 10 or 11 loss streak, but usually its around 4 to 5 losses.

Also, I am working on other strategy, backing two dogs every race with certain odds range, so I achieve a 70% Market SR, even it has loss streak with my analysis over past 1.5 year data, to be exact 5 Market loss streak happened 34 times, 6 Market loss streak 13 times etc., Which is not threatening when looked as a whole, but these rare occurrences can wipe the profits. So don't want to have a aggressive recovery here, looked at individual Step Stake for both Fav's, but the graph is not how I want it to be.

So yeah, stuck at implementing a successful staking plan, currently backing two dogs in a single bot uses Dutch staking which ensure profit if either of them wins, but with Step staking I am losing this edge, as sometimes it is having small loss even when one of the dog wins. I played around with different step stake sequence to see if graph changes any better, but no luck.

Let me know your thoughts on this.
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By dn6789
#25478
yeah this was one of the things I was trying initially with the software and I gave up on it. (backing two dogs with recovery)

the losing streaks are brutal and the bets got too high for me and then the odds would get lowered - so I decided this was not for me.

--- on my new AUST Horse Dalembert I put the stop point at 7 -- because I know 5-6 is usually the max but 10-11 is possible so that locks on the loss and reduces bet back.

this is my take on step staking

it firstly depends on the price

ie if your backing a 5/1 -- then you want to go step stake like this

5 / 5 / 5.25 / 5.95 6.75 8 9.25 10.45 .. so extend it out to 15 which covers the 11/12

now if its fav ie 1.95 - 2.80 -- then 5 6 8 10 12.65 etc a little more aggressive with the bets due to higher SR

but even this wont help in that situation.

for AU dogs -- I think betting either by price - position - fav position or SQ with a bunch of filters should generate a much more stable graph than what your seeing there.

if none of that works then look at LAY betting and figure out the best times to lay the FAV 1 and see what the Drawdown looks like there.

other than that maybe using the function bet after losses may work for you - use my example and set it to bet after 10 losses - that would lower your drawdown right down - just not sure how many bets a day you would have .. but anyway you would not lose money.
By dn6789
#25479
also I think it is such a good idea to post the graphs like we have been doing lately - honestly it just makes it easier to understand.
By dn6789
#25480
something else you could try is this

go get the racecallers tips for the races - and if your selections are not in his Top 4 - then no bet on the race

some of these guys it is all they do - call the GH and they know the dogs quite well - so sure they are not always right obviously -- but that might also help with any losing streak

I do not use this myself - but I thought about using it at one time.
By Sr8822541
#25481
Thanks for the quick response.

Good to know you tried it already, yeh even at 70% SR, it just doesn't feel confident enough. I have to try my best with the Sequence yet, so will give it a go next.

I tried the Lay 1st Fav after certain conditions like mostly based on sequence, but had some errors with BF data or Markets order, which screwed up a little with my live bot, upon checking with BF team, Bet after X rule sequence works better when done track wise. So I left it there.

Definitely there are still different ways out there which I have to try from your posts. Hopefully something soon.
By dn6789
#25521
my UK SQ Horse I do not run a tonne of variations I try to make changes to just 1 strategy - because it is not my main thing.

the one thing that has helped my strike rate quite a bit here is to use that option bet after Fav 1 loses a certain number of races and then start - with the SQ

also lowering the number of horses allowed per race -- this is getting me to that 75-80 off Maria staking so perhaps try that.
By dn6789
#25522
the other thing about UK Racing - when I finish the projects I am on now - then I am going to give this Proform thing a try and see how that goes

that would be the last possible way to use this software -- so if you have tried that let us know how it went and how easy to use it is.
By dn6789
#25602
my combined UK Lay and UK Sq on the minimum bet is about $80-$100 a day

got some good priced winner overnight - but I must say - I have advanced my statistics now so that probably is having an impact in terms of being more consistent
By dn6789
#25644
I am still running UK Horse and it makes money - I missed quite a decent parlay last night in the UK so took some edge of it -- but I am looking to build up stakes quickly in parlays to see if I cannot get like a 100k day or something like that.

ok out for today - keep working at it is all I can say.
By dn6789
#25684
I am betting UK horse pretty much everyday and for the most part seems ok -- I am looking at overall profits and not just one track or country etc - so cannot give you a lot of feedback really

but be aware I am quite active in AUST NZ UK + Ireland on my wide variety of strategy types