- Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:07 pm
A lot's happened since I last looked in on one of your threads.
The SQ ideas in this thread are interesting.
I'm looking at the BFBM results downloaded into Excel and trying to find for example a sequence for Faves 1, 2 and 3 for UK dogs (as in attachment).
The first thing is to look at "view statistics" in the BFBM results screen which gives % occurrence of F1, F2 and F3:
F1 = 30%
F2 = 23%
F3 = 16%
So, if we had a sequence which was 30 + 23 + 16 = 69 steps, then if the sequence was just randomly jumbled 1,2,3's we'd need to have 30 1's, 23 2's and 16 3's ideally as part of the sequence. However, because we reset to the start of the sequence on each winner, we're not going to realistically get anywhere near 69 steps - because it would mean 69 losers in a row.
So, when we create a sequence we'd make it smaller, though in similar proportions to what we've seen in the "View Statistics" - hence these could work well:
F1 - 8 steps
F2 - 6 steps
F3 - 4 steps
From here I think the only clue we can get as to how to structure our sequence is to look at repeating favourites appearing in runs in the results - such as we may see clusters of 1,1 or 1,1,1 in a lot of results, whereas all the 2's and 3's are generally spread out.
Our first step in the sequence must be the favourite we have selected with the highest % frequency from the statistics and the order in which favourites appear in the first steps should be in decreasing order of their %. Hence, F1 in this case is the first step and F2 should appear before F3.
Now - we're in the trial and error phase where we build several strategies in Sim based on the rules above...
Example sequences could be:
Am I on the right track here?
Screenshot 2021-07-29 224313.png (61.42 KiB) Viewed 701 times