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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#24804
yeah look your not understanding what your doing to that other poster

if you make a SQ 5-4-3-2-1 as an example

well FAV 5 does not win often so you are losing this bet most of the time - followed by Fav 4 - you would lose this bet most of the time 1-2-3 are going to win most races

Fav 1 must be first in SQ - because it can win 6 7 8 in a row -- after that you can make your own decision as to what you prefer to go with -- add in higher fav looking for long price winner - add in lower favs - mix up the combination

honestly you should really trial 20 or 30 till you get the hang of how to build one and how to stake it properly.
By dn6789
#24805
the other thing is - that is not even filtering out your race numbers

filters can lower the race numbers down to 60 a day which is manageable - then you want 40-50% SR -- if it is lower than that then your going to see quite a lot of deviation which would increase Drawdown

but these are things you need to see with your own eyes before you will understand what I am talking about
By dn6789
#24806
like Danzak above - you gotta be able to analyze what is happening vs your SQ

then your looking at something that provides consistent results which can be via the SQ itself or via filters

filters are powerful as they help remove random results as those are your enemy in SQ betting
By dn6789
#24808
just reading that other thread about people buying strategies and them losing money straight away .. I would just make the following points

a. if you buy a strat then it has to have filters to block taking bad bets -- strike rate matters for drawdown purposes
b. profitable strategies do not see 30 losses in a row - a profitable strategy that you buy must show a 40% strike rate of higher -- otherwise you have high DD and need big bank
c. from my experience stopping betting after 4 losses and restarting on a win -- may show much more stable results than blindly betting into a losing streak
d. if you consider my strategies - there is no way I could sell my strategies for any price - because you need to capture every cent of value you can get -- this is what helps you when you have losses -- if all of a sudden 8.65 turns into 5.80 well that is a lot to give up .... so my point is be realistic if someone is selling a system for $100 - it is obviously not very important to them.

I am sure there are 100 more things I could write but you get the picture -- there is no free money in gambling you gotta work for it
By dn6789
#24809
I think another huge point in building a strategy is this

my strategies are all aimed at identifying how to make back bets and then either to use a SQ approach - or use a grouped strategy approach to win everyday

it seems from reading that some people are struggling to find there way for one reason or another -- if this is the case then come at it from the other side -- look at LAY betting and find situations that match those critieria

look at the races - trainers - conditions - boxes - number of runners - jockeys -- winning/losing sequences -- and find out situations where FAV 1 -2 or 3 are losing the most races - and then set up strats to bet on those situations again

now your not going to win every single time but if you build it right and your SR is high enough then you can stake your betting and be profitable everyday.
By dn6789
#24810
nice conservative sequence with filters -- notice only like 15/16 bets but SR where I want it and easy $60-$65

with no staking at all - just fixed according to price.

this really is not hard.
Attachments
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By dn6789
#24812
strike rate is key - if you stay close to mine you will grind out a profit everyday

try different filters field sizes - experiment till it becomes consistent day in day out
By dn6789
#24821
well I hit my daily take profit so I am done for today

here is that last list I posted plus the additional 4 races - notice how that FAV 1 in position one gets on a 5 win streak there and builds the bank -- also it keeps drawdown low by not betting longshots right off the bat and taking any losses during the Fav 1 streak
Attachments
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By dn6789
#24822
I just want to repeat again - I am not using any recovery methods it is pure bet by price - and then take BSP

this keep DD low and never risks my account .... it really is driven by the strike rate.

these posts are really just to show you guys look it can be done - just set some things up run them and make changes as you see your results

I always said you know straight away when something is wrong - as you can see in my results I am very consistent really in terms of winners.
By dn6789
#24824
ok seems we died again here

I have been thinking about what to do - because I cannot give away any more info than I have on betting form or SQ

than what I have

So I am thinking that I will come up with some other sort of strategy different from this and I will just sell it like these other people do - but on something with liquidity that I will test on my own account first

that way there will never be an excuse for anyone losing money again.

Not promising anything in the next few days or anything - I need to think about what sort of thing I would release and what sort of risk profile and funds you would need.

anyway I am tired now will think more about this tomorrow and develop few thoughts from there.
By dn6789
#24826
looked on ebay there are a lot there and I went through them

I cannot build one with betminic or inplay trading - as I know nothing about football

than I looked at the horse and GH ones

the most profitable was a simple lay favs in UK 60% SR but over 1000 bets profit was low

then you have people selling packs of 25 50 100 125

I think we really just want 1 that can be modified depending what you use it for -- horses / dogs

OK will think more on this today
By dn6789
#24827
OK I have 3 ideas - 2 for UK GH and Horses and 1 for AUST GH

you have all seen what I am good at is finding ways to win over 20 30 50 60 100 races a day so a lot of bets - this allows my edges to play out better and while you still get variances during the day - it will grind out a profit each and every day

these 3 ideas will be more based around specific races and set ups - so I have no idea how many this would equal a day - but I will play around and tweak - assuming I can get them to be consistent and low DD

also I watched some of those betangel videos - the guy is obviously smart doing that whole thing - but in terms of betting I find him to be very bland and not really having a serious edge ... he does not seem to look at stats the way I do.

no ETA at all on this - as I consider it a side project
By dn6789
#24828
ok I did 3 strats for AUST

have not started on UK as yet

first bet = winner
Attachments
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By Drizzy12
#24829
DN,

Can I clarify again (as you have mentioned it many times) I never asked you to post YOUR strategy, I asked you to post an EXAMPLE. Because myself, like others in this forum still don't really understand your method, despite trying our best to understand.

With regards to purchasing strategies, I don't think people expect to purchase and then start printing money. I think it's a case of getting some starting inspiration (which many of us struggle with) then tweaking and tweaking some more to tailer it to our needs (that's what I am doing anyway)

Although I don't post (because I have tried and failed to engage) I do enjoy these posts and look forward to your sample strategy you appear to be creating. Can you give us any hints what it is based on?
By dn6789
#24830
sorry I did not post before I went to sleep and let this thing run............ but to return to my work from before

1. Form Betting - I analysed races and created 6-8 selection strategies based on how races are run and won - they can fire 4 bets in one race - so sometimes I win $10 sometimes I win $300 if I lose - I lose like $20

the trick here was to group them all and set up joint TP and SL - even though each strategy was built to make money on its own - I found by using joint approach it became more profitable because it reduced DD .. which allowed me to get those long priced winners I have posted where you get $300 $500 a race when they win.

this creates a significant daily profit because it bets 120 races a day everyday

2. SQ betting - I have explained this at length and this form of betting is as simple as they come - what is not simple is figuring out the best SQ - and how to stake it or price it .. but like I have shown you from my account - for me I can achieve 40-50% strike rate pretty much day in day out -- this only bets at most 60-65 races a day and the profit depends on the prices -- but it can make $100-$150 a day depending on that -- I cannot control how many win @$2 vs how many win @3.50 or higher .. all I know is that you can win everyday

As far as these 3 new trial strategies go the problem with them so far is I am used to large numbers of bets that I can analyse and you can find what works quickly and what does not just as quickly because you get a lot of race results.

S2 is a lay strategy - no bets
original GH - is looking for instances where F1 has an advantage over F2 and F3 ... it had 12 bets and won 4 .. but this will have to be filtered further
Horse one - was looking for similar examples as original GH in horse - but looks like I did something wrong in the strat and will need to rework it to get bets to fire

this is going to be a process because I need data for tweaks and more filters and bet sizes -- look at DD and return and get results

UK I have couple ideas but no time to do that yesterday - my plan is to get something robust which may not bet anywhere near as much as my own strategies but will win everyday - how much that is will depend on how many filters need be applied and number of races

here is the S/shot of the first day .... anyway I will post updates along the way for this as I see changes come in

Overall I appreciate some people who have little experience in looking through data may struggle to build there own form builder strats ok -- I spent months working through that before figuring it out - but if I look at what I gave away - that is a huge time saver

SQ well honestly if someone cannot figure out how to build and test those - then add filters and look at your betting sizes - well then strategy building probably is not your thing - because it is the most basic form of building.

These ones I am doing now looks like I will build 6-8 strategies - back and lay and look for $50 a day ? something like that - as with lower bet numbers this could be more up and down than I am used too ... but this will solve betting for those people who just cannot do it themselves - but there will be a cost involved if you want those ... as they will be tested and have past results and be pure plug and play

Not much more I can say that I have not said already - there is no ETA on the new strategies I have to get them just right and with much lower races they will bet it is going to take a bit to figure it out - till they are at the stage of making money everyday ... also UK I have not even got going on yet.

Personally I never wanted to have to develop strategies for other people - I just figured if I showed you where to look and how to structure something people would just do it for themselves - as I assumed people were building these things for themselves already and knew how to make strats.

Also when I say add filters - you know how I did that - I went through them one by one till I found something that may help and if It did I used it and if it did not I moved on to the next one.... I did not just randomly already know how to use them - I had to trial and error same as the next person.

I do not know if that answered your question the way you want it to be answered or not -- it is 4.30 am here so perhaps not thinking as clearly in that regard -- will get through todays racing and perhaps re read it again later.

cheers
Attachments
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By echelon
#24831
Hi DN,

A lot's happened since I last looked in on one of your threads.

The SQ ideas in this thread are interesting.

I'm looking at the BFBM results downloaded into Excel and trying to find for example a sequence for Faves 1, 2 and 3 for UK dogs (as in attachment).

The first thing is to look at "view statistics" in the BFBM results screen which gives % occurrence of F1, F2 and F3:

F1 = 30%
F2 = 23%
F3 = 16%

So, if we had a sequence which was 30 + 23 + 16 = 69 steps, then if the sequence was just randomly jumbled 1,2,3's we'd need to have 30 1's, 23 2's and 16 3's ideally as part of the sequence. However, because we reset to the start of the sequence on each winner, we're not going to realistically get anywhere near 69 steps - because it would mean 69 losers in a row.

So, when we create a sequence we'd make it smaller, though in similar proportions to what we've seen in the "View Statistics" - hence these could work well:

F1 - 8 steps
F2 - 6 steps
F3 - 4 steps

From here I think the only clue we can get as to how to structure our sequence is to look at repeating favourites appearing in runs in the results - such as we may see clusters of 1,1 or 1,1,1 in a lot of results, whereas all the 2's and 3's are generally spread out.

Our first step in the sequence must be the favourite we have selected with the highest % frequency from the statistics and the order in which favourites appear in the first steps should be in decreasing order of their %. Hence, F1 in this case is the first step and F2 should appear before F3.

Now - we're in the trial and error phase where we build several strategies in Sim based on the rules above...

Example sequences could be:

1,1,2,1,3,1,3,2,1,1,1,3,2,2,3,1,2,2
1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,1,1,2,2,3,2,1,3,1,3
1,2,2,2,1,3,1,1,1,3,3,2,1,2,3,1,2,1

Am I on the right track here?
Attachments
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Screenshot 2021-07-29 224313.png (61.42 KiB) Viewed 701 times
By dn6789
#24832
I personally would include fav 4 and a fav 5

yes you lose those bets a lot but some days they appear more often than others that is why you cannot just go for 1/2 and 3's

1-2-2-3-1-4-2-3-1-5-2-2-3

but like I said it depends on your filters etc -- I am at 60 races a day so I need diversity say -- if your limiting yours to 20 a day then you may only need ones and twos

so there are few more variables than only the SQ - but your SQ needs to be built against your race selection

create 20 of these these and put it in simulation mode and see what the results are after 1 day

strike rate -- winning price - result -- betting/staking

then alter these things for the next day - work on it till it becomes consistent

also as I said number 1 thing is how many races your betting on -- this determines a lot

I gotta go out now back later
By echelon
#24833
Many thanks for your advice :)

I prefer to pick up as many races as possible because the variance spreads out more nicely that way - which I think you mentioned in an earlier post.

I like the idea of ignoring any Fave 1 bets below 1.9 because the reward isn't worth the risk.

If I'm going to include 4 and 5 then there's filtering I could add to reduce the amount of losers on these (from what I've seen, longer distances, mean longer running times which means that favourites will be more likely to collide more often allowing less favoured dogs to take the lead). However, including those sort of filters I think would be more suited to a "long shot" strategy - which perhaps concentrates on getting big winners from faves 4,5 or 6 - perhaps with a sequence too?

If I include the distance filter when I have faves 1,2,3,4 and 5 then I suspect that I might be filtering out a lot of profits which could come from the lower faves in short distance races. Though food for thought and something to try out.

You mentioned creating 20 strats in Sim and running them for 1 day. At the end of that day's testing do you recommend ditching all the losers and continuing to test the winners? If so, how long should we be testing the winners for in Sim, before putting them live? A week would cover every day and there are noticeable differences in UK dog results at weekends compared to weekdays - so my guess is that we should do at least 7 days testing.
By dn6789
#24834
here is the thing - anything that is not achieving a 40% strike rate - will not win over time

so if your seeing 10% - delete it -- if your seeing 30% then work with it and try to improve it - or add another filter to delete some of the poor results

when you run these for a while you will see patterns in your results and you will realize that you need to limit your races better.

anyway I just got home got some jobs to do and need to adjust the forum strategies I was working on yesterday.

I do not get it right every time myself - I need to see data/results and adjust as well.
By dn6789
#24835
also as well I just want to say - your so far thinking about it in terms of absolute

fav 1 this fav 2 that etc

but that is how everyone else thinks - like the guy from betangel in his video

you absolutely need to use filters to defeat the inherent bias against winning by staking fav 1 .... what are the conditions that allow fav 1 to win @70% instead of 35% -- this is key for the future results.
By wondra
#24836
Hi

Just wanted to say i still following the thread. Work has been busy so tak8ng up a bit of time
Im continuing testing, refining, testing again
I feel im pretty close to going grom Sim mode.
Will update hopefully early next week, working 6 days straight at present.
These latest posts have given me a few new ideas, i have an exercise book with quite a few pages of furure strat project ideas

Thanks
Wondra
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