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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#24554
So I started a few threads today with different ideas

I made up so simple strategies with no real tweaking done yet as we really are building data first

and from the 4 strategies already a $60 profit today

I think with more data more tweaking better staking - some recovery and a joint management these are $200 a day just on that $5-$7 start bet mark

if your not involved it is time to do so in my opinion
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By dn6789
#24559
here is todays results so far

the horse ones really have not bet so far because few races today that meet criteria

I made slight changes to my strategy the results SR wise are similar to yesterday but it made it more consistent

I left it with flattish bets and no recovery -- but it makes money no trouble

if people do not want to participate and add their thoughts/ideas/suggestions then I am not going to post in this forum again.

My other thread was $1500-$2000 a day and these latest threads are $200 a day no problem - low DD

so that is just how I feel about it.
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By dn6789
#24560
heck if someone has an idea but not sure if its profitable - post it and I will look into the data and see if it can be made profitable or not

I certainly do not know everything especially the strat building side - but what I can do is figure out if it has value or not.
By Drizzy12
#24576
DN,

I follow most of your posts quite keenly as they are very interesting.

However, you are generally quite cryptic with your strategies😂
(Understandably so)
I would love to get involved with testing and tweaking with your ideas but I think there is too little information to really help!
Wish you all the best mate.
By dn6789
#24577
I am not sure it is that hard to follow

look through the last 5 days stats build yourself a sequence with 1 the first number

you do not even need loss recovery - you can set bet by price if you like or step stake

reset it when it hits the end of on winning -- you know your on the right track when your hitting 40-50% winners

exclude anything below 1.90

use 5-8 fields or 5-10 if using horses exclude the widest 2 barrier draws

once the stats come in then just alter the bets/recovery or add further filters like I have been looking at - stop betting after 5 losses and start again after a win

the reason for that is you get streaks within the results

not sure how more transparent this new idea can be to be honest -- the $2000 a day one I cannot give away how the selections are made or I shoot myself in the foot

but people here can build multiple variations of the same thing and it will still work

as far as jockey challenge favorites go - that is even easier - restrict it to 1000 - 2000 m racing -- then 8 - 10 runners but only allow betting when drawn 1-8 barrier - also look at leading trainers and only allow bets on those .. what you will get will be a high SR winning machine -- not a lot of bets but it will make money

I forget if I said anything else - but I figure if you cannot make these work then there is something wrong -- the only other thing I can do is post the strategy itself but this I do not want to do - I want people to build there own sequence which takes less than an hour.... heck build 20 put them in simulation mode monitor the results - change them and then go live ... $200 a day easy
By Drizzy12
#24578
I understand what you are saying about sequence but no stats can predict that 6,7,8 run loss that wipes you entire bank.

It's all about the selection process.
You can back a 1.9+ fav in certain races but the wins are not consistent enough.

I love your enthusiasm and simplicity but for the most of us, it isn't that easy. (maybe you are a secret genius)

I have many different strategies which I am testing with small stakes but can only dream of the success you are speaking of. I only want £10 a day 😂😂😂
By dn6789
#24580
even with runs of 5-7 against you - if your stats are hitting 40-50% you will win

what that will do is take back some profits - to prevent this I am suggesting limit it to 5 and wait for a win before restarting.

the thing is you are getting winning bets from 1.90 - 10 and hitting 40-50% -- you will win no trouble on those stats especially if you edit the field size

the other thing you forget is you also get runs of 5-7 wins in a row - which build your bank fast

anyway like I said I put these things into action and make them work - I do not sit back and go you know what it will never work.

my largest group of strategies that took me months of playing with the software and stats and spreadsheets and scraping before I figured out how to make it win.

OK I am out -- cheers
By dn6789
#24581
you do realize that if you lose 5-6 in a row that is only like a 30-35 loss right

so if that blows your account then you probably should not be betting.
By dn6789
#24582
ok so today already

2 bets 2 wins

if it bets 60 races today and it wins at 40-50% it will be right in the $150-$200 profit range

so yeah it is definately going to blow up your account LOL.

(if your not winning 40-50% of your bets you have done something wrong)
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By dn6789
#24584
all you got to do is build it and refine it and let it bet .. it will make you money

do not believe all the negative people who say this cannot work that cannot work its a scam etc etc ... just try it even on practice mode -- this is not that hard.
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By dn6789
#24585
as I said it needs to bet 60-65 races a day to hit $150-$200

but you can see - you need to be 40-50% Strike rate to be in that window - I am at 39% which is just below where I want to be ideally.
By Drizzy12
#24589
I have strategies with a 40-50% strike rate that don't make as much as that!

I can see from your other posts your are a fan of sequences.

Just to be clear,
Are you using simple sequence, move forward on loss and back to the start on win?

I have tried fionbamcii but again, nowhere near the results you are showing!

I like you am not that fussed about profit I more enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the system 😊

Appreciate the guidance.
By dn6789
#24590
OK - you can use this on any sort of racing

look at the sequence of winners and build yourself a sequence that marries current win streak vs we know the historical strike rates of the runners anyway

then exclude low prices under 1.80 or 1.90 as they will add no value

then look at other filters - like barrier position - trainers jockeys - box numbers - whatever it is

then you have a sequence but make sure 1 is the first number because you will see 6 8 10 favs win in a row at times - so you want to hit those and build your bank

example sequence ... 1/3/2/4/1/5/2/2/3/1/4/2/1

then restart on win restart at end

(the images I have posted have used Bet by value -- like this 1.80/2.61 $6.25 2.62 - 3.45 $5.85 etc etc

so I am not using recovery - I am not using anything other than showing you guys what can be done)

after you have done all that - you should be seeing a strikerate of 40-50% if your not hitting at that rate - then you must make changes - as to bet 60-65 races a day - you gotta have a good strategy.

you can see what I have been posting mine are profitable and right in that ball park

I classify this as beginner level strategy - that anyone can do - and it can be fun finetuning it beyond what I have written here ... I believe that anyone should be able to achieve $150 a day with this method and you can probably just use bankroll $200-$250 once you got the strategy down via testing.

My other thread which is 1500-2000 a day - is way more advanced more work more thinking and ultimately perhaps not for everyone.
By dn6789
#24592
also I went over to another softwares forum and they had all kinds of spreadsheets with historical numbers SR etc etc

yes that is useful - but that is not the driving force behind this way of thought.

I am looking at specifics 5 runner race fields 6 runner race fields 7 runner race fields 8 runner race fields etc

these affect results - prices - and how you would have to manage your recovery if you used that.

then I look at things like excluding races with favs under 1.80 betting in races where the fav is minimum 2.80 - factors like this - then I look at what that does to strike rates and sequences and what price does the winners pay in those races.

overall it is fairly simple to start - but you can add a while bunch as your knowledge grows -- the biggest thing that holds me back is the software.
By Drizzy12
#24593
DN,

I might be being stupid but your example sequence doesn't make sense.

example sequence ... 1/3/2/4/1/5/2/2/3/1/4/2/1

If you were to win on the 5th bet your outlay would be 10 points and your win would be 1 point. If you hit this every time (or any other of the latter 1s) you would most definitely not be profitable.

As I say, I am not doubting you as you have shown you can be profitable but I don't think it is as easy as that.

If you would like to share an example strat privately I'd be more than happy to trial it in the UK markets so it doesn't affect your betting

Again, wish you success mate.
Last edited by Drizzy12 on Fri Jun 25, 2021 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By dn6789
#24594
you are not understanding

this is about SR + price and streaks

as I said my price is like this

1.80 - 2.41 $6.25
2.42 - 3.61 $5.85
3.62 - 4.62 $5.70
4.63 - 5.50 $5.50
5.51 - 1000 $5


so putting a 1 at position 5 really does not matter -- what you need to do is enter a streak where you win 6-8 in a row what you do not want to do is get into a position of 10 losers in a row.

also as I said that is an example of what it should look like - you need to build your own

(additionally if you want to build a sequence like your talking about where you must win on every bet - which is not what I am doing .. then stop betting on anything below $2.80 and use step staking and increase the best each time... this will be higher DD and you will need bigger bank)

on the screenshots I have from my account this is NOT what I have done - I built a sequence of 40-50% strikerate -- fixed betting according to price ... max DD of about $70 and daily profit between $110 - $200
By dn6789
#24595
also in mine I only bet BSP prices - so what that does is something might price at 2..65 15 seconds before but pay 3.10 when closed.

anyway try it my way - try it your way - set both ways up and run in simulation mode and see which makes more money - and what the stats look like
By dn6789
#24596
and thinking about it - if I had to win on every bet I made like that

then you need to filter the races way back to like races where Fav 1 pays minimum $2.80 probably more likely $3.20 because you need to keep your stake down - otherwise one bad run and you will lose all your money)

also you probably would have to eliminate betting on fav dogs 4-8 completely - then you would have to look at which boxes fav 1-3 win from and only allow those situations

so for example if Fav 1 is min $3.20 and has box 1 or 2 then bet -- any other box do not bet
if fav 2 has box 2 or 3 then bet anything else not
if fav 3 has box 4 or 5 and is priced 5.50-6.65 then bet

this sort of thing -- you may end up with only 5-10 bets a day looking at it that way + due to price requirements you may have losing days

anyway if you like that way then try it see how it goes -- I like my way better - lower DD higher SR - more bets to even out the randomness that is racing ... I also have this on Horses but I am not going to explain any more - this really is not hard

I am out - cheers
By Drizzy12
#24597
I don't mean to be rude but I think the reason your posts dont generate more interest is because they don't make any sense.

They may to you but not to us unfortunately.
I fear unless you would share an example strategy either publicly or privately we may never understand. It may be that you are significantly more intelligent than us 🤣

You can study a sequence for months, if doesn't mean that same sequence will happen tomorrow?

Also, iIf you have a selection process using odds of 1.8-5 (or higher as you suggest) and you are getting streaks of 6-8 then you truly have conquered gambling. Why not just punt these and stop for the day?
By dn6789
#24598
yeah sure maybe I ramble on and make things harder to understand than necessary - but that is the thing in the software it has simulation mode so you can set up things and try them without risking anything

as far as this sort of thought process goes - well this happened yesterday does not mean it will happen today.

this is the whole part where you have statistics over 10 years that show you the SR for each box - the prices they win at - the field size -- so these are all known right but using them this way does not work ends in a loss

but if you use this information to build yourself a sequence - build a staking strategy build a recovery strategy - and monitor that you are hitting your target SR of 40-50% then you will win --- so it is not fair in saying well because of this that will not work.

also like I said if you want to try for 80-90% strikerate which is what you were looking at this is kind of easy as well really .... after more thought I would not even Bet Fav 1 --- so I would filter races like this

Fav 1 must be $3 or higher -- Fav 1 must not be in Box 1 or 2 .. then I would go look at Fav 2 stats and then bet Fav 2 from Box 3-4-5 or Fav 3 from box 6/7 whatever it works out to be

that way you would have very low recovery numbers could stake well due to higher payout and perhaps that is better for most people.

like I said I like my way better because you can see in the numbers any deviation pretty fast.

As far as the whole release a strategy here or there -- well the problem with that is if everyone uses the same thing the prices of these things will make it not worth while for me.

About 12 years ago I wrote one of the most read threads on the internet about Amazon Affiliate Marketing - I built 150 sites and was making $1000 a day and I wrote a how too guide from step a to b and software to use and keyword research etc -- the exact same thing happened a few people embraced it and built their own empires but others just wanted me to do it all for them .. I sweated blood building and learning for months to get to 150 sites - so yeah you just like to see people make some effort to learn.

After selling out of my sites I went into TV shows via MegaUpload and again built that up to about $800 a day and released another popular thread about how to build an empire of those sites -- was not as read as Amazon thread but when Kim Dot Com got into problems that whole side of the internet died out.

All I am trying to do is show you if you use this thought process and look through the numbers you can make $150 a day no problem ... if you want to do it slightly different or another way that is great -- but to sit back and not try it just does not make sense to me really.

Probably lastly I also shared SportsBetting Pick Sites -- Sportline and ThegreatTipoff -- you can simply use those if you want and build a strategy off of those.

I just started on Sportsline picks myself and I watch the early edge utube show and use those as well .. I probably bet $200 a day on these and profit is averaging about $70-$80 a day.

So there you have it lots of ways to win depends what approach you want to use ... good luck
By dn6789
#24600
just so there is no BS going on here is my sportsline picks today

SDQL is one capper I follow every pick and Sportsline is just the early edge picks - if they are duplicated I just go with SDQL

already they won the first game .. so my outlay so far was $129.28 and if they make more picks I will bet those as well.. so like I said around $200 a day I bet on these
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By dn6789
#24601
So I set up a new sequence closer to what you were asking for.

1 bet one win @4.10

tells us nothing though will post when we get through 10 races if that many qualify today
By dn6789
#24603
I have run it all day how you wanted it - except for recovery

it made $12

I know one day does not make or break something - but my way hits $110 + no problems -- this way because of increasing the initial price requirement it makes it a lot more random and that impacts the profits

it really would require recovery and the risk that includes .. that any day it can blow up .. you do not get that my way.
By dn6789
#24604
if you do not want to get involved in racing - then sportsline is your best bet for settings something up -- just load up their tips of the person you want to follow and go from there. (sportsline subscription costs like $80 a year)

no-one can make a racing model and make it 100% accurate -- the absolute best I can do is 50% using multiple methods.