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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By Drizzy12
#24576
DN,

I follow most of your posts quite keenly as they are very interesting.

However, you are generally quite cryptic with your strategiesπŸ˜‚
(Understandably so)
I would love to get involved with testing and tweaking with your ideas but I think there is too little information to really help!
Wish you all the best mate.
By Drizzy12
#24578
I understand what you are saying about sequence but no stats can predict that 6,7,8 run loss that wipes you entire bank.

It's all about the selection process.
You can back a 1.9+ fav in certain races but the wins are not consistent enough.

I love your enthusiasm and simplicity but for the most of us, it isn't that easy. (maybe you are a secret genius)

I have many different strategies which I am testing with small stakes but can only dream of the success you are speaking of. I only want Β£10 a day πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
By Drizzy12
#24589
I have strategies with a 40-50% strike rate that don't make as much as that!

I can see from your other posts your are a fan of sequences.

Just to be clear,
Are you using simple sequence, move forward on loss and back to the start on win?

I have tried fionbamcii but again, nowhere near the results you are showing!

I like you am not that fussed about profit I more enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the system 😊

Appreciate the guidance.
By Drizzy12
#24593
DN,

I might be being stupid but your example sequence doesn't make sense.

example sequence ... 1/3/2/4/1/5/2/2/3/1/4/2/1

If you were to win on the 5th bet your outlay would be 10 points and your win would be 1 point. If you hit this every time (or any other of the latter 1s) you would most definitely not be profitable.

As I say, I am not doubting you as you have shown you can be profitable but I don't think it is as easy as that.

If you would like to share an example strat privately I'd be more than happy to trial it in the UK markets so it doesn't affect your betting

Again, wish you success mate.
Last edited by Drizzy12 on Fri Jun 25, 2021 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By Drizzy12
#24597
I don't mean to be rude but I think the reason your posts dont generate more interest is because they don't make any sense.

They may to you but not to us unfortunately.
I fear unless you would share an example strategy either publicly or privately we may never understand. It may be that you are significantly more intelligent than us 🀣

You can study a sequence for months, if doesn't mean that same sequence will happen tomorrow?

Also, iIf you have a selection process using odds of 1.8-5 (or higher as you suggest) and you are getting streaks of 6-8 then you truly have conquered gambling. Why not just punt these and stop for the day?
By wondra
#24611
Hi
I live your threads.
They are inspirational and get me remotivated when i screw up :)
Most makes sense but my question...
Obviously your different must have different filters, so if you were using 20 strats, would this cause you to use 20 different sequences?

Thanks
By wondra
#24612
Sorry just had another thought...
Sequence... are you referring to fav 1/2/3 etc or trap Sequence

Sorry if thats a silly question

Cheers
By wondra
#24664
sorry been busy at work and using any downtime to look at data.

Am about to put quite a few in SIM mode...will keep you updated as to progress

thanks so much for the ideas...I can assure you, they are keeping me busy

cheers
By madjon
#24666
dn6789 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:51 am I did want to address this one point someone made the other day

why would you put a (1) at position 5 for example that would cause you to take a loss

4 * 5 -20 for a +6 net loss of $14

the answer to this is simple -- I am grinding over 65 races a day - so I want the lowest variance possible

there are days where the Favs win 6 7 8 in a row and there are days where fav 3 4 5 win more than their share

you need a sequence that can profit from both days .. but control your risk

so if you lose 4-5 in a row sometimes you get that 11/1 winner and you do show a profit - so if 8 fav 1 wins in a row you win 8 in a row

therefore do not look at any 1 bet as a profit or loss -- it is 1/65 and the goal is to have a balanced sequence so that you can at the end of the day hit $100 +

.... the ultimate key metric is StrikeRate -- no matter what sequence you build and filters you use -- you must be in the 40-50% range -- if your not stop and figure out what changes you need to make.

it is a grind not a sprint... that is why we are using the software.
If you read what the user who queried this sequence says, he referred to being -10 after 4 races. I suggest he was using stakes for the sequence, not fav positions.
By baddydaddy67
#24675
DN - your ideas are good inspiration. I looked 2 years ago at AUS greyhounds, had a couple of strategies - lost money and walked away. So I have followed your threads with interest, had another go at at developing strategies and tested them out on small stakes. I ended up using the results data from BFbot to develop strats - I ended up with two profitable lay strategies - low liability and strike rate @80% after about 200 bets - so pretty reliable.

Like you I could find no pattern on UK dogs that worked consistently - made money one week, lost it the next.

So let me throw 2 ideas at you - look at 6 horse handicap races in the UK & IRE. then look at 3 horse races - hcap or non hcap. there are a couple of profitable angles in there using the price rules to lay or back at higher prices. Because of the smaller field size the price movements early in races tend to be predictable ie favourites shorten - others lengthen. In 60 3 horse races F1 wins about 50% of the time - hopefully you can find the stretegy from there.


Keep posting - your approach is refreshing.
By Beerio
#24679
Key to finding a profitable strategy for UK GH is figuring out the reason why BF would make the GH a fav in first place. If you know why they chose it, then you will find the key to solving the puzzle as they will get it wrong plenty of times daily. Then you should setup a step staking plan and dutch 2/3/4 dogs in that race when the prices are ranging from 4-12.
By Beerio
#24682
Just reading your post I made it sound like it's super easy, which I will say now it's not. However you have given me an idea to use a Odd Staking Ladder or Moving Average Staking Plan to keep this moving forward rather then using any other recovery method.

My figures for June were 304 successful lays on said fake favs from 409 runs with S/R 74.82%. The 25.18% accounts for winners that have come from F1 or any other dog has gone past the max odds that I use on my settings, as the bot will dutch from 2-4 dogs depending.

I guess the only question really will be what happens when there's multiple dogs that fall in the same odds stake ie 5.0 and 5.2 :? I better test this in sim mode before letting it loose.
By baddydaddy67
#24699
Like the sound of dutching say F3-F5 - looking back at stats on some UK tracks it may be profitable even without loss recovery. I've picked a couple to try it out on based on the results / stats from BFbot. Will let you know if profitable.
By Beerio
#24703
baddydaddy67 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:11 pm Like the sound of dutching say F3-F5 - looking back at stats on some UK tracks it may be profitable even without loss recovery. I've picked a couple to try it out on based on the results / stats from BFbot. Will let you know if profitable.
If you want to cut down you research time for which tracks will suit what, take a look at the Draw Bias of all the tracks, then pick out the ones that appeal to you, Also researching how x amount of runners on those tracks corollate to the prices on offer will help you with the F3-F5 dutch bot. All the best.
By Beerio
#24704
dn6789 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 9:27 am in terms of sequence betting there is a direct correlation between price of Fav 1 and Strike Rate and consistency of results

today I raised price of fav too higher level and my strike rate dropped to 23% and also what happened was before I would get streaks where I would win 8/9 bets as an example - raising it took away the streaks like that

so we learned today when building your streak you need to identify the more consistent race types and build your sequence and betting around that -- do not think that you can go betting at higher prices without a multiple bet strategy

ideally for this sequence betting strike rate which we have always know was important - and price - so seems when Fav 1 is shorter the win rate and price works in fav 2 3 and 4's favor
In the UK it's said that the F1 should be winning between 30-32% time overall, however there are certain races where the F1 will win only about 26% of time, if you can find those races or venues then you should have a very high rate of laying the fav or dutching the field with some descent results.
By wondra
#24717
Hi
Im running a few seq in SIM mode, but I dont seem to be able to get the strategy to restart after 5 losses.
I appreciate you are very busy and giving freely of your time but if you have a moment, could you check my thread re Safety Rules and any suggestions you may have would be greatly appreciated.

Im actually running separate strategies for 5, 6, 7, 8 and all races (5 strategies). The smaller ones are showing a small but consistent profit (need more time though to iron out seq) My 2 larger ones 8 starters & All races (naturally have more races) and both stop after 5 losses but do not restart after a win. they just stay stopped for the rest of the night.

Thanks for a very educational and profitable thread, much appreciated

cheers
wondra
By Beerio
#24719
wondra wrote: ↑Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:03 pm Hi
Im running a few seq in SIM mode, but I dont seem to be able to get the strategy to restart after 5 losses.
I appreciate you are very busy and giving freely of your time but if you have a moment, could you check my thread re Safety Rules and any suggestions you may have would be greatly appreciated.

Im actually running separate strategies for 5, 6, 7, 8 and all races (5 strategies). The smaller ones are showing a small but consistent profit (need more time though to iron out seq) My 2 larger ones 8 starters & All races (naturally have more races) and both stop after 5 losses but do not restart after a win. they just stay stopped for the rest of the night.


After 5 losses you need to change from STOP to Restart, that will allow your bot to reset it's self then run again.

Thanks for a very educational and profitable thread, much appreciated

cheers
wondra
By baddydaddy67
#24732
Hi, dutching proving profitable! Could be made more profitable using your sequence ideas. I wont post results up yet, maybe next week. UK races easier to dutch as only 6 runners.

There are a few track biases but they dont tend to matter if you get the sequencing and loss recovery working.
By Beerio
#24735
baddydaddy67 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:17 pm Hi, dutching proving profitable! Could be made more profitable using your sequence ideas. I wont post results up yet, maybe next week. UK races easier to dutch as only 6 runners.

There are a few track biases but they dont tend to matter if you get the sequencing and loss recovery working.
Your very right about track bias and loss recovery. The one thing that does make a difference is the average odds you are recovering with in the sequence. I have 1 system that recovers just previous stakes and after 500 runs the longest losing sequence was 7, however the positive here is that the amount that was needed to recover previous losses added to less then 3% of my roll. My longest winning streak has be 5 runs (multiple times) and average string loss is 2.8 runs.

Keep on testing and adjusting :)
By Beerio
#24749
Im not able to send thru my file with results, so here is a gift to the community. This is 30 day data from my bot, max 5 runner field with stats included. Build your own sequence around this as it's very profitable once you figure out what your looking for :D GL all.
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