Forum

General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By Casenova777
#25509
Beerio wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:44 pm Haven't posted for a while, however I need to send you a massive THANKS for your posts about GH Seq and also starting the UK Horse thread. Took a while to get things going for anyone that is willing to put the work in rewards are great. After reading your threads I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.

Don't give up people, keep on trying til you find that break thru. Wishing everyone green bots.
Hey Beerio, great results and thanks for the added encouragement along with DNs.

What’s your SR and ROI percentages like on those strategies? How many bets a day / a week are you looking at?
By dn6789
#25510
Yeah for sure - ultimately you have to have some risk control so your account does not get sucked away.

Today I am trying this.

1. SQ Horse with Maria - as normal
2. SQ Horse with Maria - except the SQ does not reset upon a win -- so sometimes they back the same horse sometimes they back 2

(see what the results look like in a few days)

If you ask me right now what would the perfect set up be to run.

Horse SQ with Maria Staking with slight mod on the last odds from 11 to 30 -- use base rest on win and use stake $1500 this is needed for AUST because or minimum bet is $5

with those settings max DD would be around $200 using my SQ -- assuming lets say 35% SR

this would give you a good grinding approach.

I have been thinking alot about GH - and I think my approach is really the only long term approach where you can win. You need many strategies linked together - so you get some hedging -- keep your DD down and make a profit.

There simply is too many races - too many variables for one strategy to always make money - a combined approach of distance/price/box/field size + a SQ approach - surely is the best way to approach it .. otherwise your bankroll would need to be very large.

Also it helps to set daily take profits - joint take profits - and a safety SL in place to give you a break and reassess where your going wrong.

With that I am out - I put a lot of effort into various things over the last 3-4 days -- need a small break to recharge .. good luck
By dn6789
#25512
Feel a bit better today but not going to hang around long

I mentioned I was going to try the 2 SQ with slightly different approaches .. it soon became apparent - do not mess with a good thing because the original went 5/7 - so it is pointless to diversify from a winning strategy anyway

so now for SQ Horse AUST/NZ I am just running original with Maria Staking .. this seems to be best for the longer term idea compared to the others.

personally I dislike the too aggressive ones.

once I get more data on these things will post some graphs.
Attachments
new.PNG
new.PNG (18.75 KiB) Viewed 1190 times
By Rendoe
#25513
Thank you for the update on that SQ resetting tactic. I had been thinking the same thing when going through SQ analysis. Saved me the trouble!
By dn6789
#25514
Couple things added -

to UK SQ Horse I added wait for 2 fav 1 to lose

to AUST SQ Horse I added a duplicate with Step Staking Modified --- 7/8/12/6/6/6/6/15/18/5/6/6/7/20/5/5/5/30

taking into account once you go past 3 your hitting 5/6 and once past 5/6 your going to 10/11 -- and you do not really see it going any further than that - but I added some just in case I am not here

this will be further modified as time goes on in terms of the value of the stakes at which time
By dn6789
#25515
OK new idea now

have been looking through numbers - and building something for Parlay betting that I used before

the goal will be to achieve large payoffs - so I think some people might be interested in this -- I do need more study though and yes it will be based on principles we have developed to date - because I feel like stats make it easier to follow.
By dn6789
#25516
so I have set up 3 parlay strats that are linked together - one starts off and the others join in

to complement these strategies I need to develop a lay strategy this week which will be new to me - it will be based on our work in these threads and I already have the idea - but its late here so will do this tomorrow

the idea is this -- the lay strategy - will pay for the parlay strategy

so what I am now looking to do is to have days where I make 50 - 60k ... ie we are upping our game -- upping the inputs and pushing it as far as I can go - and yeah its not going to happen everyday but lets at least try.
By dn6789
#25519
I mentioned Parlay and I had built 3 last night but after thinking about it I may need 1 for each option

So I filtered it down to a certain series of results but 3 is probably not enough -- it maybe closer to 8/12

the reason is you need to build the stake right so 3-1-2-3 3-1-2-4 is not really enough right -- you need more flexibility in how you build to get the stake large enough to result in a big payoff

will post more on this when I figure it out -- have to take dog to vet soon
By dn6789
#25520
Also I do not know how many people followed sportsline for NCAAF and NFL over the weekend -- but I opted for a Parlay and some straight bets and that was like 2k in profits

if your struggling to follow some of these ideas - dropping back to something as simple as that may help you grow your bankroll in the short term - until some of these other things become clearer.

even just watching their daily videos the Early Edge - will help you .
By Sr8822541
#25572
danzak wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:16 am Just to prove point related to 2 strategies helping each other to make profit and then reset to start. I created today for HR and with SS 15 steps from 5,5,6,7,9,12,16,2127,34,42,51,62,74 and 87 got $172 for only 3 meeting.
Thank you again DN for giving us a push to work on our own ideas with your great support.
Good luck to all of you!
Hi Danzak,

Interested to know how is the status on this bot, is it still promising so far? or had to do any tweaks along the way?

Cheers
By dn6789
#25578
started another way of looking at the races

I think I am going to build a model for every runner in every race and see how it does

this is how I am starting though

again all stats are done how I do my SQ - so the results will be interesting.
Attachments
runners.PNG
runners.PNG (175.83 KiB) Viewed 1042 times
By dn6789
#25582
so it did not get to run for long but it made +27 just on my first effort with no tweaking or anything

today I will try to build out some more and see how we do today
Attachments
new.PNG
new.PNG (193.53 KiB) Viewed 1029 times
By dn6789
#25584
I was going to do more on this today - but I just had my 2nd pfizer yesterday and having trouble focusing today - so will run with what I have and see how I feel tomorrow.
By dn6789
#25603
this is just the strategies we have talked about here - in terms of Lay vs Back

+123 - selective race betting - not high DD really - and 300-400 a day between them
Attachments
example.PNG
example.PNG (94.94 KiB) Viewed 956 times
By dn6789
#25612
I thought this might interest you

Parlay via SQ

using $5 start bet just today
Attachments
parlay.PNG
parlay.PNG (15.98 KiB) Viewed 936 times
By dn6789
#25613
also if none of this is making any sense to you and you simply followed my Sportsline suggestion - the main cappers today were 3/0

so it has been a pretty good day today all round.

for the free trials and cost you cannot beat Sportsline for using the tips in the Bot or with your Bookie.
By dn6789
#25642
you take my Parlay Strat yesterday betting AUST + UK

based on SQ technique - it hit 39% winners - which is about always our benchmark

but due to the way the winners came in - it lost $39 .. as it needs 3 in a row

compare that to saturday or sunday where it made 330 whatever day I posted the other s-shot

I doubt I change this really - variance within something like that is normal and if it can make $300 and have small losses like that - think you just got to let it run

as I said in the other lay thread -- SQ technique can be adapted across a wide range of strategy - where it does not have to be a definitive number but can be a combination given fixed settings.
Attachments
parlay.PNG
parlay.PNG (15.86 KiB) Viewed 849 times
By Sr8822541
#25671
dn6789 wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:19 am also if none of this is making any sense to you and you simply followed my Sportsline suggestion - the main cappers today were 3/0

so it has been a pretty good day today all round.

for the free trials and cost you cannot beat Sportsline for using the tips in the Bot or with your Bookie.
Hi DN,

I know you mentioned about Sportsline a couple of times now. Can you do an elaborate post specific to this please?

Like whom to follow for each sports, just anything else you reckon would be helpful to make $50 a day.

Also, not sure about the times they release their tips, as we live in AUS, do we have time to hop on those picks etc.,

Cheers.
By dn6789
#25673
just so you know I played College Sports and I have bet on US Sports for 30 years on and off depending on what I have been doing - so I know the Colleges - Teams --> and how betting is different when factoring in lines on games.

I found Sportsline a few years ago and have subscribed since then as I find it much easier than building my own models etc.

So with that out of the way:

College Football / NFL best cappers in my opinion

RJ White - NFL guy - very smart in the way he picks games and his long term record speaks for itself
Larry Hartstein -- NCAA + NFL - you can see his record knows his stuff and studies angles well
Micah Roberts -- I value his picks less than the top 2 above but still follow
Mike Tierney -- in College - I bet all his picks and he went 5-0 NFL he is above average but not as good as RJ

Mike McMclure - pure model guy - good to follow .. but streaky

so these 5 guys if you bet their picks and used mild recovery you would win money without any doubt in my mind

Now the other guy I follow is Matt Severance -- he bets on everything but I find his NFl and College Football not as sharp as the others - but NBA NHL I would follow him

you can see everyones record on the Site and always read into the Top 5 cappers they will record a box on the side of the website.

ALL the other cappers to me made the same mistakes I did when I started out betting - over rating various aspects of "Name" schools and teams -- lots of things you would expect but when your betting all you care about is results.

Remember I mentioned you will need a mild recovery strategy as everyone has their ups and downs but the last few weeks these guys have been hot -- especially RJ Larry and Mike

ALSO they host a Podcast every day you can watch on youtube called "The Early Edge" you should subscribe to that

$50 a day or $1500 a month should be easily doable.... if you have like 2k I think that would be all you would need.

As far as getting bets on -- RJ released his tips early and Larry does too - Mike gives you a day -- so yeah I feel comfortable saying this should not be an issue - but I do not know your schedule obviously.

cannot recommend this enough to be honest.

Larrys Picks are

Indy -10
Minn -135
Jack + 3
Det +3.5
Buff - 5.5
Pitt - 4.5
Charg + 3.5
By dn6789
#25674
in my account if you use promo code "snow" - that will give you 10 days free

but they have all kinds of trials and promos so see what you can get

I was on yearly 29.99 but the price has changed now - not even sure what I will be charged this year - but it is worth it so no problems there
By Sr8822541
#25675
Thanks DN. Really appreciate it.

Will have a suss with that promo code. Cheers.

But I am a bit lost on using recovery method, so say as per above it is 7 tips, and does 1U on all of them. so if any one the pick loses, you just increase unit size on ALL of his next picks?
By dn6789
#25676
yeah lets say you bet $25 on each pick as an example -- if you make a profit stick at $25

if not increase to like $27 whatever - just small increases until your back in front and drop back to initial stake

I do not think any of them I mentioned have had a losing day so far this season -- but they may have had a breakeven day -- I could not tell you exactly as I bet them all - so I look only at the overall result

which is why I stopped betting severances picks as those were the really only ones losing
By dn6789
#25677
on the early edge they may give out a code for a free month - so do not feel like you need to use mine - it means nothing to me - I just saw it in my account under offers so wrote it here for you .. like I said they always got offers etc
By dn6789
#25678
basically I got my money back - and the profits are all riding on Pittsburgh and Buffalo

Larry 3/2 with those 2 games to go
  • 1
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9