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[dn6789]

https://www.tab.com.au/

Thanks.
Unfortunately this web site is blocked for people in the UK.

just use ingognito mode in chrome or vpn in the browser for that site - or try sportsbet or someone else

[woweee]

Hi DN,

A million thanks for taking the time to look at these and your fantastic advice!

You've given me lots to think about and implement - so I'll set to work on that tomorrow

I hope woweee can make use of my basic strats and your detailed advice, so at least two of us will be getting closer to having strategies which are as solid as yours.

I'll make some amendments and then post updates after running for a few days -Cheers!

Thanks DN and Echelon.
I'm on it.

[woweee]

I made some of the changes DN recommended to Echelon.

1. I added Unsettled Markets 1.
2. Every sequence begins 1,2
3. Start betting at 15 secs before start.

Not added fav price or race length yet.
Thank you to DN and Echelon for there hard work.

Today an amazing total profit of 94.5 pts.
Unfortunately only staking 0.10p.

[woweee]

.Not sure about race length ?
Will try and add Fav price

[dn6789]

W

the main thing is you have started and are starting to see some results

next you need to focus on your strike rate and filtering races down to ones you stand a better chance of winning - then alter your SQ to match that

once you finish you should be anywhere from 5 - 60 races a day 35-40% strike rate -- and if you have staked correctly every single day you should profit.

I have a couple that are more over time -- the two new ones based an trainers and my fav 7 and 8 -- they do not win everyday -- but the other strategies make up for that

anyway hopefully you end up with 10-12 working strategies and a decent return

best of luck

[dn6789]

also if the author of the bot adds more filters and safety features we have asked for - it should make things more flexible and be able to control DD better

so yeah things are looking fairly good - but you gotta have your basics right

[echelon]

Hi DN,

It's good to see woweee making some progress, I've made similar changes too, though need to see more bets before looking at further filtering I think.

You mentioned in a recent post that you've not needed to tweak anything on your SQ strats for the first time and that you normally tweak something in your SQ strats every day.

Am I correct in thinking that you're looking the Results tab for the past 3 days to see if any trap (box) or distance bias has changed and if so, then adjusting the SQ strat to mirror that recent performance?

This regular tweaking appears to be another element which is quite unique about your systems.

[dn6789]

no I do not need to adjust my SQ

what I need to do is adjust prices and filters to open things up or tighten them up -- race selection is important

also I have a lot of strategies altogether so I need to keep them in line with how the races are being won -- again making sure they are betting in races they can win and if they are not winning according to what they should why not ?

I can also make changes to my steps in staking according to the updated win/loss rates - this helps compensate for any slight changes as well

tweaking involves these slight changes - that either help win rate / drawdown - or amount bet per race .... I have a strategy for every race of every day in aust/nz greyhounds/trots and horses -- think about the amount of bets I make a day now .. so yeah I need to pay attention to even the smallest things.

[dn6789]

anyone who may think SQ is a waste of time - may want to look at just simple strategies that make $400-$500 a day between them using small bet sizes

[echelon]

what I need to do is adjust prices and filters to open things up or tighten them up -- race selection is important

Aha - this was the thrust of my question, though not quite in the way you seem to be using it.

Do you find that when you plump for a fave/trap/distance combo that it remains the same all the time?

What I find (particularly with UK GH) is that for example for one month Fave 1 may win in trap 4 an excessive amount of times and bring in nice profits, though the next month backing fave1, trap 4 will lead to big losses.

This is why I was wondering if you looked at a very quick moving average (e.g. 3 days) in the results to ensure that you can jump on the transition of Fave 1 from Trap 4 to another trap which is going to become "flavour of the month" and change the SQ strategy accordingly.

[dn6789]

the way you think about something is different than me because I have so many more strategies running - each strategy is designed to win on its own

but what I change are the race selection filters -- price filters - staking

I want to manage the ups and downs within the statistics

my SQ values do not change - only the criteria that affects how many races a day it bets on -- like I told you - you can tighten this up or loosen it depending how it goes - plus you can alter the staking.

think about it from my side - I am betting just about every race every day with one strategy or another -- SQ series is just one part of the equation -- hot/cold is already captured by my strategies

[echelon]

Thanks for clarifying your "tweaking" process DN.

I set up Woweee's SQ strats in addition to mine and one of those wins the prize for the most profitable today.

It's an interesting one because it uses a SQ to bet on both AUS and NZL dogs, and picked up some nice winners from each country given that it's only using 10p flat stakes.

[dn6789]

give it a few more days - and just do the things I have suggested and if it is a solid strategy it will start to win each day.

GH when I watch live what my strategies are picking and how the races are run .. it goes in cycles - some races it will pick 1st 2nd and 3rd -- other races it will have 2nd 3rd and 4th - and other races they will collide on the first corner and some random dog wins

so I do not watch the races all the time would drive you nuts.

Horse Racing - well SQ just seems perfect for that because Fav 1 just does not win all the time so making it random brings home some nice prices -- but being beaten a nose is kind of boring LOL

now with the extra strategies well that will have more things to watch on the weekend.

Honestly I am pretty burnt out talking about all of this so will take a break from posting -- I will just update the download thing I made - and see already I had forgotten to put the password in LOL ... OK back next week and good luck.

[woweee]

Hi Echelon

I have been looking at the odds on your UK and AUS dog strategies.
I didn't realise that on the Bets tab there is a slider to decrease or increase the odds.

Dogs AUS SQ 1 profit so far 65 pts. If the odds are changed 0 - 8.00 the profit increases to 71pts. 6pts extra.
Dogs AUS SQ 3a profit so far 11pts. If the odds are changed to 5 - 14.00 profit increases to 59pts. 48 pts extra.

Dogs UK SQ1 this has made a loss of 13 pts. Changing the odds made no difference.
Dogs UK SQ3a Profit so far 18 pts. If the odds are changed to 6 - 23 36 pts. 18pts extra.


Gonnna run the original strategies against the new odds.

[echelon]

I didn't realise that on the Bets tab there is a slider to decrease or increase the odds.

Hi Woweee,

I use that feature quite a lot - it's really handy because you can see the effect in the totals of changing anything in the bets screen (not just odds) immediately.

It's much slower in Excel because you first have to make the change, then close the window before you see the refreshed total.

It'll be interesting to see how consistent those different odds ranges are. One thing to beware of when using the slider to get the best odds ranges, is that when you move into longer favourites, the results are less reliable.

Say that you have a SQ which is 2,3,2,2,4,3,5,4,2,3,3,2,1,2, if the bets you're looking at happened to have a couple of fave 5 winners at odds of say 20 and 23 and some fave 4 winners at 15, 17, 18, then if you adjust the slider to odds 15 to 24 you'll be showing some very healthy profits.

However, who's to know if the next fave 5 winners are 28, 29 and 30 - which you miss with your odds range and because there are no big winners picked up your profits can turn into losses.

I've set up some test SQ's using some longer favourites and excluding fave 1 as above, so we'll see how they get on...

[dn6789]

nice $1000 win in one GH race

build it and they will come

[echelon]

nice $1000 win in one GH race

build it and they will come

Wow! That was some catch

This appears to be just a straightforward strategy and not SQ based - unless it's 7,7,7,7,7,7 lol.

I checked back through the August stats and Fave 7 is profitable in box 3, but more so in box 4.

I've set up that strat in Sim to see what sort of bets it picks up. Selecting 7 dog races will filter a lot of bets out and make any dog more likely to win than in an 8 dog race.

With a F7 strategy we're going to get a lot of losers unless we do some extreme filtering...so I guess that a distance range or grade filter might need to be added after seeing what sort of bets we end up with...

[dn6789]

my fav 7 has 8 bets yesterday for $1,130 profit

filtering makes a difference

[dn6789]

fav 7 1st race 34/1

[Casenova777]

Hi dn,

As ec mentioned, out of interest are you still using SQ betting with this Fav 7 strategy for example? Or just backing 7 every time it fits the filters? Can’t see how a SQ would work with Fav 7 to make sure it didn’t miss the one time a big 100-1 fav 7 wins. 1,7,1,7,1,7,1,7 ??!

Great stuff by the way. Really enjoy reading this thread.

[dn6789]

no fav 7 is not SQ strategy - this is one of the strategies I had developed to sell - but like I said the profits just got so high that it was just better I kept them to myself

[dn6789]

the reason I am posting some of these things is to show you there is a tonne of ways to win

you just got to start with one and build up your knowledge and then when you have that move onto more and more things -- then link them together .. this I have found is very effective

also one thing I mentioned many times before but it is worth mentioning -- when you are betting like this you have to accept you are not winning every race - and you will fall into win streaks and losing streaks - your going to have to balance this against what bankroll you have ..... if you have read all my posts you know I have purposely stayed away until recently from more risky strategies -- because I wanted people to develop their skills first -- build your bankroll and then move on

I hope this makes sense.

[dn6789]

the grind

[dn6789]

I pretty much looked at every software available off the shelf - their forums and instruction guides and to be honest the support / information and ability to take what you buy and turn a profit -- and its like 1 in a million.

most of the people appear to be following the standard videos on youtube and if you watch those compared to what we talk about here - they are so far behind us it is silly.

when you look at Betfair itself and what it provides - everything they say - says they want to help bettors but from what I see all their experts for the most part are losing money -- every automation they do they say it is not designed to make a profit and all the tools they say to use are pretty standard and non helpful .. so not much help there

the only thing of value they provide is the data basically.

So I would just say that if you want to ask anything about what we have discussed to this point now is the time - because while I think BF Bot Manager is the better software of the choices out there - without the additions that have been requested added - I will be gone and it will be a ghost town around here again.

[dn6789]

and there is one massive difference between what I talk about and the general market - and that is for the most part I have solved the way to select the winners at what I think is a very good percentage (SR)

just look at the last few races - with very modest bet sizing and recovery -- that is +$600

OK enough posting from me - hope you guys are finding some success as well