Forum

General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#24551
I used to think to myself sequence what the heck use is that - but after playing around with it - it actually surprisingly useful.

when you look through the stats it is always biased one way or another for obvious reasons .. number 1 stats are always high because they have more runners - favorites win more races on average etc etc

but if you look at an average day and restrict yourself to 8 horse or dog fields

1,3,1,2,2,4,1,1,1,1,2,6,4,3,1,1

so what does this tell me ?

that you can forget form - scraping etc and look at just raw numbers

if you exclude favs (1) that are less than $1.90 then surely you can build a profitable strategy right ?

1,2,3,1,1,4,3,1,2,3,5,1,2,3,1,3,2,1 restart on win and restart at end

you need to bias (1) because you know that this will have the highest win rate - but you need to randomize it with other numbers to capture more wins - and when you win you want (1) first so you could perhaps get a streak going

next you need to figure out how to bet

starting out till you find the best sequence I would suggest

1.90-2.60 $7
2.61-3.41 $6.30
3.42 - 5.50 $5.75
5.51 + $5

once you see the results come in you can adjust the amounts and recovery strategy to take into account

then as I said before you could match this up with its own recovery - or link to a seperate strategy to perform the recovery for you.

so long story short - I played around with this yesterday - I had 40% SR and profit was about $60

also make it do BSP bets - so you can capture that little bit extra if possible on final settle price and make sure to use trigger at like last 15 seconds so you get a more accurate market reading.

THINGS TO REMEMBER

1. your going to have to build your own sequence that maybe short or long - depending what you want
2. start off with the price bets while you work on your SR
3. when SR is known or high enough then adjust bet size and introduce recovery
4. identify a certain size field - group of runners - jockeys - just that one additional factor that can reduce the random factor of racing even just a little bit
By dn6789
#24565
you must start sequence with 1 - after that you can make up your own based on stats and betting pattern

the reason is sometimes you get 8 fav 1 dogs winning or 5 fav 1 horses

so these help build up you bank - so you absolutely need 1 as first number and restart after win checked of course
By woweee
#24969
Hi DN6789

I’m struggling to understand your sequence system.

I assume these numbers are showing which fav won.
1,3,1,2,2,4,1,1,1,1,2,6,4,3,1,1

And these numbers are showing which fav your betting on. Is it one bet per race ?
How did you arrive at this sequence?
1,2,3,1,1,4,3,1,2,3,5,1,2,3,1,3,2,1 restart on win and restart at end.

Could you upload a system file to show us how we set up BfBotmanager for the above sequence.
Last edited by woweee on Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By dn6789
#24970
I actually completed talking about this yesterday - today I am start working on UK racing

SQ can be anything

1,2,3
1,2,4,1,5,6,3,2

you might want to filter out all the fav 1 results and just use higher ones

2,4,5,3,2 etc

this is totally up to you and the filters you make and races you allow to run

make 20 of them and keep adding filters and run in sim mode -- when you see them winning 30% SR then modify them until they hit 40% -- from there finally work out which SQ will work everyday - and add delete filters.

this is the most basic strategy available in BF Bot Manager but it can work -- alternatively use bet after number of losses to trigger a start .. or make 3 SQ and link them together.

then look at staking - in my thread I used fixed price staking - but you could try the others depends how good your strike rate is.

contact BF Bot Manager help if you cannot figure it out from the manual - like I said I have finished going through this am ready for new challenge.
By dn6789
#24971
I just want to say this as well.

The first day I started at looking at SQ betting - I had no idea if it would work properly or not - but trial and error and some experience from looking at data led me to figure out how to put together a strategy that could make money.

so build some things run in Sim - modify - adjust and it will work -- start out with one field size and expand as you get more experience.

I am going to try SQ on UK Racing as well - pretty sure I can get it to work on that as well.
By madjon
#24978
Hi Woweee

I have attached an example of a strategy using some of DN's guidelines for GH races with 8 runners.

It is level stake, the SQ and filter applied are just an example.

**I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE PROFIT!!!
Attachments
(3.55 KiB) Downloaded 93 times
By Drizzy12
#24979
Madjon,

Thank you so much for this. Been following these posts for ages and like many others, can't seem to get my head around it. Been asking for an example for a long time.
I'm away at the minute but can't wait to get home to test and tweak this.
Thnak you again!!!
By woweee
#24980
Thanks Madjon

This makes things a little clearer.

One thing I did notice shouldn’t the bets take SP ?

Although !!!
Still can’t see how you work out the best sequence. If I had the results from the last 50 races. How would you work out the best sequence and wouldn’t it depend on the odds.
By echelon
#24982
Hi wowee,

If you're using BSP to back in the UK in live then your minimum stake is £2, nearly $4 Aussie money.

Generally you get better prices using BSP, though when first testing in live, you might want smaller stakes.

Sequences are pretty much guesswork from what I can see. DN has mentioned before that we should dream up 20 different sequences and try them all in Sim to see which are profitable.

As far as I can see, the only thing which will help you in constructing a sequence is to look through the "Results" tab in BFBM - Filter on the market as contains AUS if you only want to look at AUS dogs, or filter as not contains AUS and not contains NZL as a custom filter to only view UK races.

The results tab shows you all the winners, so you need to scan down through the favourite column and see if there are clusters appearing regularly.

For example, do you see a general mixture or clusters of 1,1 and 1,1,1 favourites winning? You need to include these clusters in your sequence, so that when you hit the sequence at the start of a cluster, you'll get more winners in the cluster.

Maybe you spot other patterns appearing regularly, if so then including these patterns in your sequence will mean that if you hit upon the start point in your sequence and the pattern ends up repeating itself, then you win all bets in that cluster.

For example, you may see 1,2 appearing very regularly - if so, then build some sequences with 1,2 or several interspersed 1,2's in it.
By dn6789
#24985
you can make sequences long or short - favs or mixed or longshots

and see which proves to be more consistent.

I make $100 to $200 a day from it everyday .. what I do now is set it to stop at +$100 - but often it will overshoot on a long price winner etc - but minimum $100

then I set it to reset at 4 am each day

the other thing I did was change my staking from price staking to first and last recovery with step ... the reason I could do this is because I hit 40% + Strike Rate everyday.... I never introduced these concepts till now because staking by price is so safe - it is hard to lose.

Personally I do not quite understand why people find it so hard to put together a SQ that can win

you know that the first number has to be 1 -- you could build 50 patterns from that and see which works better and then finetune it ... also you can pick certain field sizes - distance - boxes - so many different things to increase your strike rate.

anyway SQ is the simplest strategy you can make that will win if you do it right
By dn6789
#24987
the other thing is this.

if you bet Fav 1 your winning 35% of the time so per day 120 races you would win 42 on average some days higher some days lower -- but the average price of these is maybe $2.25

so you need to exclude certain situations to get better SR and better prices plus that leaves 78 races where you need another number .. so you need to think about how to build it

anyway I need to go now - got a bookie offering me 5k deposit for 5k bonus -- need to go do that - as it is free money for me the way my systems pick winners.

cheers
By dn6789
#24989
just on something else I pick up from reading peoples comments from the way they are written

is that people are scared to lose a race .. but you gotta think about it - if I can find an edge - I want to bet as many races as possible to let it play out that fit the criteria

betting 10 races means nothing really in the scheme of things that is not going to make you rich.

so do not sweat it --- study your Strike Rate - that is going to be your saving grace every time .. even with bad odds if your strike rate is good - you can get a staking plan that can make you money.

0 - 25% Strike Rate is not acceptable 25-35% is something to work with 40% plus - you are going to win long term which is what you want.
By Drizzy12
#24990
Ech,

That was pretty much my summary of It 😂
You had any luck?

Dn, I've twice seen you mentioned 100% bonus's from bookies. 500 and 5K.
I have accounts (in the UK) with pretty much every bookmaker and never seen offers this good.
Please can you let us know with which bookmakers these offers are?
By dn6789
#24991
I get deposit offers from LadBrokes - Sportsbet and Poinstbet

deposit anywhere from 500 to 5k and get 500 to 5k in bonus bets ..... today i finished +2500 and withdrew 7.5k

like I said I just use the bets my bots make and these have turned into money for Jam.

days like today where there are big races they happy to try to get you to bet ... but +835 last night and +2500 today -- easy money.

if your not getting offers like that contact them
By danzak
#24992
I had good day as well +2500 but not with bookies, just using my HR strategies. Nice looking picture attached.
Also made a progress with GH and so far 5 strategies ready for REAL mode. Will sell them through thegreattipoff.com same user name (danzak). They can be taken for free through sportsbetting.com.au just follow me and stay alert when posted. HR selling $5 a day also I can put in comment line of the tip all info ready to load into BF as imported tips. Good Luck to all of you.
Attachments
SAT 210814.png
SAT 210814.png (186.46 KiB) Viewed 2046 times
By dn6789
#25000
I like thegreattipoff and sportsline when looking for tips

must admit now I just follow my software selections more because the SR is so good - less need for others.

lets hope today is another good one.
By echelon
#25024
madjon wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:38 am Hi Woweee

I have attached an example of a strategy using some of DN's guidelines for GH races with 8 runners.

It is level stake, the SQ and filter applied are just an example.

**I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE PROFIT!!!
Well - it's looking pretty good so far! Attached are results from the last 3 days
Attachments
OZ_Strat.JPG
OZ_Strat.JPG (138.07 KiB) Viewed 1985 times
By dn6789
#25027
the main thing is to get your SQ where it can win everyday -- which means picking races that fit your SQ

once you get consistent 40% SR - then play around with how you want to bet it

when all of those elements fire correctly your $100 a day no problem.
By danzak
#25028
Now I understand that you don't want to calculate SS for my 1st favorite system. It took me few hours two find SS. In the attachment you can see graph for Level and SS, around 40% POT increase using SS: 5,5,6,9,15,21,30. Money management is most important as you already pointed out.
Attachments
SS for 1st Fav.png
SS for 1st Fav.png (99.72 KiB) Viewed 1971 times
By dn6789
#25029
it is a tradeoff how you bet

my suggestions where concentrate on SR first - because that will keep your DD lower

to include some longer price ones so if you hit one your in front no matter what

and for staking grind away using price -- but bet as many races as fit your criteria

...... once that is done then look as you suggested at more aggressive betting strategies to build your account faster -- which led me to my other observation -- that you will see when something is wrong straight away and then you have to decide to make change or let the drawdown play out on its own.

also for me I have mine set to stop at $100 a day for SQ - I think that is a fair easy to hit number

anyway really we have covered every piece of the puzzle and those graphs show in an image what it looks like when you hit your daily metrics

(thanks for posting that)
By dn6789
#25036
yesterday my SQ made $200

when it hit +103 it stopped betting - then I reset it and it made another $112

I still say that it is the simplest form of betting and if you do it right even a starting balance of $400-$500 if you use $5-$7 bets is enough for $50-$100 a day even more really - depends on your set up in relation to this.

(obviously things can change in the future and results may vary that is natural and the same for any form of speculation .. also if you use more aggressive recovery options your going to get different set of risk parameters)
By dn6789
#25048
today I doubled everything so the base setup goes for $200 a day instead of $100

yesterday like I said it hit $100 really quick - so restarted and it made another $100

probably at some point I will go to $400 or $500 - but that would be it -- you never want to drive the market you just want to go with the flow - and keeping it small and under the radar from other punters I believe is essential especially in these lower liquidity events.
By dn6789
#25049
also I just want to say something that is obvious to me

but as I move up my GH SQ from $100 - $200 -- then next $400-$500 a day

I simply will have to end my comments on this particular way of betting and you will just have to reread my previous thoughts and thoughts of others .. as we are getting into the $10,000 - $15,000 a month sort of range and that moves the strategy from a recreation/hobby to something more serious.
By dn6789
#25050
GH SQ does what it does = make money
Attachments
sq.PNG
sq.PNG (22.31 KiB) Viewed 1858 times
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8