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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
By dn6789
#25447
it really is the strike rate which is giving the account growth

the different types of staking are using the streaks to build the account -- but like I did mention I myself prefer the ones that protect the profits a bit more than go crazy with it.

and at the core of selection is the SQ method.
By dn6789
#25458
Something else I wanted to mention --

I suggested a Sportsline subscription and follow one of the major experts and use their tips

this weekend I bet the SL Model and Matt Severance's tips and made about $600 - I have one more game to go the Kansas City game that has not started yet

but if you cannot for some reason work out GH or Horse then you can still make money by using their picks .. so I hope at least a few people got onto this gravy train as well.

for those building your bank roll for these other ideas - this is a good way to do it.

cheers
By Beerio
#25460
Haven't posted for a while, however I need to send you a massive THANKS for your posts about GH Seq and also starting the UK Horse thread. Took a while to get things going for anyone that is willing to put the work in rewards are great. After reading your threads I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.

Don't give up people, keep on trying til you find that break thru. Wishing everyone green bots.
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By dn6789
#25464
thanks for posting the graphs

in some ways it makes it easier for people to see the ups and downs and the ones where the strategies and SQ is locked in with the steady growth .. many people may not have believed that was possible

so hopefully more people find their own way through the initial fog.
By Rendoe
#25465
Awesome looking results DN ...... I'm trying to find a stable SQ for day in day out.
By danzak
#25466
Just to prove point related to 2 strategies helping each other to make profit and then reset to start. I created today for HR and with SS 15 steps from 5,5,6,7,9,12,16,2127,34,42,51,62,74 and 87 got $172 for only 3 meeting.
Thank you again DN for giving us a push to work on our own ideas with your great support.
Good luck to all of you!
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By dn6789
#25467
exactly I have provided a tonne of information and you can use the ideas anyway you want

if you have a OK bankroll $100 a day should not be hard .. whether it is one or you link several together
By Casenova777
#25468
danzak wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:16 am Just to prove point related to 2 strategies helping each other to make profit and then reset to start. I created today for HR and with SS 15 steps from 5,5,6,7,9,12,16,2127,34,42,51,62,74 and 87 got $172 for only 3 meeting.
Thank you again DN for giving us a push to work on our own ideas with your great support.
Good luck to all of you!
Great results danzak. What do you mean exactly by 2 strategies working together? I know dn mentioned it before but I’d it referring to Loss recovery over the chosen strategies or is it another trigger?
By echelon
#25469
Beerio wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:44 pm I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.
Hi Beerio,

Some nice looking charts there! Great progress :D

I've looked at various strategies for UK horses, though found it tricky to get the sort of consistency which you're seeing.

Charts 2, 3 and 4 would be similar to those of my strategies - they're quite choppy and a bad run of losers will send the chart right back to the start or even worse into the negative.

Charts 1 and 5 are the most interesting because you have a really solid consistency there. Are you using SQ in those? Also from the chart we can't tell the DD, so it's possible that those strategies are using some form of rapid recovery which may require a large DD from time to time to get back on track and make the next profit.

If you're not using any recovery on charts 1 and 5, then it looks like you must have worked out some really solid entry criteria. I know that DN has a lot of knowledge of the sports he's developing strategies for, did you already have background knowledge on UK horse racing which enabled you to create some unique strategies?
By dn6789
#25470
this is mine after today

I am going to reset everything and try to do more graphs - as I think it shows the strategies better than just the numbers
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By Beerio
#25471
echelon wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:21 pm
Beerio wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:44 pm I have put together 5 systems that I have tested since start of Aug 1, 2021 for UK Horses. All graphs are BSP with stakes of £2.
Hi Beerio,

Some nice looking charts there! Great progress :D

I've looked at various strategies for UK horses, though found it tricky to get the sort of consistency which you're seeing.

Charts 2, 3 and 4 would be similar to those of my strategies - they're quite choppy and a bad run of losers will send the chart right back to the start or even worse into the negative.

Charts 1 and 5 are the most interesting because you have a really solid consistency there. Are you using SQ in those? Also from the chart we can't tell the DD, so it's possible that those strategies are using some form of rapid recovery which may require a large DD from time to time to get back on track and make the next profit.

If you're not using any recovery on charts 1 and 5, then it looks like you must have worked out some really solid entry criteria. I know that DN has a lot of knowledge of the sports he's developing strategies for, did you already have background knowledge on UK horse racing which enabled you to create some unique strategies?
Hiya mate,

So the above charts are straight betting £2 BSP prices with no seq or recovery, however I have used the things form this thread to narrow down the selections that I am putting on. It's all CSV file loaded in the mornings for them all, however it's super quick and takes me 5mins to put it all together.

System 1 - 27.91% S/R
System 2 - 16.59% S/R
System 3 - 16.77% S/R
System 4 - 17.61% S/R
System 5 - 29.17% S/R

1 & 5 can def be sequenced, as I found that starting prices for F1, F2 & F3 have a better strike rate when they are between certain ranges. I'm gonna duplicate the these 2 then I will start playing about with the seq while keeping the original bots for the profits they make to keep on testing others.
By Beerio
#25472
dn6789 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:48 pm this is mine after today

I am going to reset everything and try to do more graphs - as I think it shows the strategies better than just the numbers
Have you ever thought about doing a master class on sorting/sequencing/what your looking for? Just a question as I now I am terrible at sequencing, but pretty good at digging thru enough data to find workable systems. Or would you consider charging for private consultation on a system to improve it into sequencing?
By dn6789
#25473
no not really - because it just is not worth it to me

I could never charge enough - and once I tell people exactly how to do every single thing the same as me - it just kills it for everyone.

your better off and I am better off - if people take the time to learn and put into action - even though when you start it seems impossible.

you know you just have to find your small niche - and study everything about it -- once you master that then move into bigger things.... use a daily stop loss a daily take profit - use resets - whatever works best for your bankroll

this Maria Staking is growing on me - you set your bankroll and it adjust stakes according to that - so you get some nice growth there.

anyway it is late here - I will be around tomorrow.
By dn6789
#25474
I was just thinking - my results I posted here are from my last reset where I changed the strategy back to bookie staking from recovery - and the start bet was like $5 .. which is the minimum bet here

obviously I have added those other staking plans which ups my risk

but in what - less than two weeks even with the smallish bets its +$2800/$2900 and max DD of only like $200-$250

yeah I just cannot give that sort of performance away.

anyway I reset it before and just going to post graphs from now on ... I also took the SQ from AUST and added it to UK Horse - instead of using the UK one I made .. as that only made like 150 - so I changed the SQ and added Maria Staking instead - so see how that goes this week.

over and out LOl I gotta get some sleep.
By dn6789
#25475
I been working on spreadsheets all day

and found this site

excel chat -- you pay $29.99 and get 3 sessions a month

so this will be good for me - because I can get my problems solved faster - and not have to research everything all the time ... now I just need to sit down and list the things I want so I can go through the process

not today obviously will take a few days.

Also today I was researching other ways to do what we do -- and when I looked through the information on horse racing it comes down to this

.... if a horse has form and a good gate etc - the market prices it tighter automatically - so the true value of the runner is gone -- yet when you look at stats horses that do not quite have the record match the overall profit because when they win you get a larger price .. so one way has higher win rate lower reward the other has lower win rate higher reward more drawdown

so your typical way to assess horse races is really perhaps not the optimal solution -- and I think this is where SQ comes in - where you can randomize the results and pick up value compared to the punters who key into certain things.

Now I have another idea I want to explore - but it will require a lot of development -- so once I finish off the spreadsheets and get those how I want them -- more automation - more macros and easy loading -- then I will move onto that.

Not much else from me -- I hope to see more people posting though - because ultimately you go look on the internet for trading systems for betfair -- these threads provide more real world information than any you can find or pay for.
By dn6789
#25476
before I was just cruising a long - working on this each day -- but now because we got more people posting etc - even I an upping my game trying to get more advanced and more insights into how to be profitable - based on stats alone and not so form based.
By dn6789
#25482
no graphs from me today because this is the first day of my reset - but I wanted to show you the results as there are several good points about this to talk about

1. strike rate -- 45% about the 36% long term average so we should see that lower as more races are bet

2. SQ based -- this is the same strategy I have used for some time - and made various staking changes -- I do not change my SQ any more this one works really well

3. staking -- I am most comfortable with Maria but make sure to change the upper limit from 11 to like 30 , Dalembert is the most risky -- bookie moderate and parlay well mine is set to 3 in a row - so days when you get that it will do well.

basically all these are set to $5 minimum bet and so far today + $270 -- on a day with very few horse races to choose from 9/20 bets

Deleted the SQ Root Staking as it was really pointless - just added to my risk per race for not a lot of return.

SQ continues to deliver and as I get more updated data - we will look at the graphs and make sense of those.
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By Beerio
#25485
dn6789 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:18 am I been working on spreadsheets all day

and found this site

excel chat -- you pay $29.99 and get 3 sessions a month

so this will be good for me - because I can get my problems solved faster - and not have to research everything all the time ... now I just need to sit down and list the things I want so I can go through the process

not today obviously will take a few days.

Also today I was researching other ways to do what we do -- and when I looked through the information on horse racing it comes down to this

.... if a horse has form and a good gate etc - the market prices it tighter automatically - so the true value of the runner is gone -- yet when you look at stats horses that do not quite have the record match the overall profit because when they win you get a larger price .. so one way has higher win rate lower reward the other has lower win rate higher reward more drawdown

so your typical way to assess horse races is really perhaps not the optimal solution -- and I think this is where SQ comes in - where you can randomize the results and pick up value compared to the punters who key into certain things.

Now I have another idea I want to explore - but it will require a lot of development -- so once I finish off the spreadsheets and get those how I want them -- more automation - more macros and easy loading -- then I will move onto that.

Not much else from me -- I hope to see more people posting though - because ultimately you go look on the internet for trading systems for betfair -- these threads provide more real world information than any you can find or pay for.
This excel chat sounds like you could just present any problem to them and just have it solved in a formula way. Seems descent and def worth the price if you are gonna continue to use it going forward.

As far as UK horse selections personally, I think that narrowing down the criteria that your looking for ie distance and just work all the way thru them all one by one before attempting to group them together. I also tend to look at stall draw positions for different tracks, as the tighter tracks you would like to be on the rail to cut down the distance/energy usage.

I won't give up on Seq betting, I will just try to hone in the 28% and try to improve it by few % each time and see how that goes. I originally done 60 bots, ended up with 7 that were between 20-27% so the only way is up really.
By dn6789
#25487
I was favoring moving everything to Amazon but today I thought what the heck I will do bit more on my own - and of course needed this and that -- then I found that site

should help me polish off and decide where to go from there -- the thing putting me off the other one is I am not really happy about paying large sums -- but anyway like I said we shall see.

few people seemed not to see the reason why to group strategies together -- this is the reason why.

If I have 5 strategies betting on GH - and they use Step Staking -- by using a joint TP and SL - it helps control DD by resetting the stake back to the beginning and allowing the account to be smaller in size -- otherwise you would need to fully fund for each strategy

personally I was using $65 $85 $100 and stop loss 250 300 400 sort of thing

it banks the profit and goes back to your first bet -- allowing your account to build and keep DD under control especially if you have aggressive step.

this is how I use it -- obviously up to you guys whether that helps you or not
By dn6789
#25496
Yes I like the excel chat site for what maybe its potential is - to just get stuff done and lower the development time -- Amazon stuff is way harder for me - more languages etc to choose from that I have little to no background in.

the only reason I am writing this kind of information here - is that if someone is struggling with something it may help to use things like this for an inexpensive price.... and get you where you want to be faster
By Beerio
#25499
I am not IT by trade, however since starting to learn to compile the data, YouTube has been my best friend with all the supportive videos you can find on excel and formulas you are working on. Just pick one that allows you to transfer data from 1 excel sheet to another for example: SUMIFS() is one that I use for specific data from 1 sheet to another after I copy and format scrapings.

The alternative to all this is using BFBM results or Bets tabs to import into sheets then going from there.

Third and last solution is purchasing the data you need, then formatting it into the way you see fit, unless you search really hard for free sites that have the data in raw form.
By Beerio
#25500
dn6789 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:57 pm Yes I like the excel chat site for what maybe its potential is - to just get stuff done and lower the development time -- Amazon stuff is way harder for me - more languages etc to choose from that I have little to no background in.

the only reason I am writing this kind of information here - is that if someone is struggling with something it may help to use things like this for an inexpensive price.... and get you where you want to be faster
Keep us posted with how you get on as I think that $29.99 is a bargain for 3 sessions of something that your looking to do for the long haul going forward.
By dn6789
#25502
I have also decided going forward shortly - that I am just going to run one staking plan not 4

Parlay - no -- because it relies on multiple wins in a row and yeah it happens but it is not sustainable as sometimes you have really big bets -- and I want to be a grinder

Maria Staking - I like this one and it will be my choice - consistent - increases as you win and decreases when you lose -- what you want to be doing really

Dalembert -- simply too risky - great when you are winning alot but gives back money too fast

Bookie - simply Maria is better in my mind

Step will be used more in my GH strategies where can be linked and managed better that way -- Horse SQ now is more set and forget.
By Casenova777
#25508
Yea agreed - percentage of bank staking strategy (Maria) and level stakes are really the most reliable and low risk options.
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