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Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 12:03 am
by dn6789
and I would fully expect the heavy and good strategies to be profitable over time

as suggested you could just use the tracks where the favs have better return % but regardless it would work as is.

so that is 2 strategies I have already given away - this horse one and the trot/pace one -- I set up the good one myself this morning and I did the other one yesterday

adding to my portfolio all the time.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 4:15 am
by dn6789
as far as GH strategy goes I got that dialled right in

already this morning made 2 withdrawals and left $300 in profit in my account

I wish trots and horses were as easy

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 4:24 am
by dn6789
my final piece of advice on horses would be this

at what price does the fav go from being a firm chance to win to being an easy change to win

and at that price what runner has the best SR to beat the fav .. or perhaps is there 2 runners that would stand a better chance and increase your strike rate

then to further filter it down - look at track condition and barrier position

so for example on a heavy track if your 2 picks are drawn outside the fav. what would be the SR vs if they were drawn inside the fav.

by using 2 3 4 5 conditions you can really make it a good bet --- then you would need different things for good tracks as an example ... maybe in 1200 races the Fav strike rate it too high - so you would need 1100 or 1400 and only back the fav at 1200 races at that price you calculated.

as you can see in horse racing there is a lot of work but I bet if you look into it - you will see how to set these things up and win day in and day out.

Ok I am out for rest of the day - see how things look later -- good luck

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 12:21 pm
by dn6789
+1300 today and still few races left to go - withdrew $500 and left the rest.

work on some more things tomorrow.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Thu May 13, 2021 12:52 pm
by dn6789
that was funny another 26/1 winner -- another withdrawal for today

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Fri May 14, 2021 12:31 am
by dn6789
so lets take stock of where we are at :

GH Specific Strategies 16

Yesterday Profit +$1800

of that about 12 individual were profitable and 4 lost money .. today I will look at the staking side and see if I cannot tweak that a little better

really though if I can hit $1000 a day everyday I would be happy

What is not working ?

the lay strategy - the back strategy - anything to do with strategy that pulls extra data from Betfair - these are massive failures and the only way to do it - is by doing it all manually via scraping and spreadsheets - which I really did not want to do

I think this is going to require the hiring of a custom coder who builds the thing based on my requirement converts it into a CSV and then upload into the software.

at some point I am going to trial the other betfair software and see if any of that works better -- when I looked at horse strategy before this is exactly why I came back to GH -- less work and I am just one person and this is not my full time job.

anyway any suggestions or thoughts would be appreciated.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Fri May 14, 2021 12:37 am
by dn6789
so horses would be custom project (1)

but I also want that sportsline done as well which would be (2)

that would give me a bit of diversification away from dogs/horses and trots... not sure how to even approach that - I have set it up to scrape the picks but inputting it and setting the prices etc is beyond me in BF Bot Manager

I am using this chrome add on that is free "Data Miner" you can train it to scrape what you want - anyway it is pretty good once you get the hang of it.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Fri May 14, 2021 2:44 am
by dn6789
3rd race of the day 20-1 wins - first withdrawal of the day goes in :)

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Fri May 14, 2021 9:07 am
by dn6789
just to give you a glimpse at race by race results

+16.73
-18.21
+144.01
-22.02
-16.28
+93.59
-15
+9.55

so far its +1361 with quite a lot of races to go today still.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Fri May 14, 2021 10:51 am
by dn6789
just hit +2k for the day - made another withdrawal

yes it is possible to make money with this - takes a bit of work obviously to get something viable - but you gotta get some trial and error going and get live - this is just too easy at the moment.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Sat May 15, 2021 2:13 am
by dn6789
this morning tweaked everything for GH went shopping and come home already up +255

for interest I went to great tip off and sky racing caller and analyst tips and -- uploaded into the tip strategy with staking plan --just selected people with best results

so this will give me some interest all day as GH will stop soon and not start back up till like 6pm

I just cannot believe once you figure out how to make it work how easy it is to make money -- I look at all these betfair analysts with negative roi's and just think yeah that is why - because people always want to believe the best - for me I just go solely off the numbers .. I find that easier

good luck today

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Sat May 15, 2021 7:35 am
by dn6789
tipsters are a bust today like -265

give me GH any day

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Sun May 16, 2021 8:55 pm
by dn6789
well not going to bother posting any more as not enough interest or feedback

I will add one more thing about my set up -- I did away with all recovery sorts of things how I do it now is use SIMPLE SEQUENCE instead

so just build recovery that way but inputting the stakes I want up to maximum - then tell it to go back a certain number of steps when it hits the last stake I want to get too

example

5 7 11 15 18 revert back 4 steps

this is all in the settings

anyway I checked all SR and numbers updated anything that needed updating and ready for today.

my set up is generating anywhere from 1200-2000 a day - depending how many races there actually are.

well I wish you luck with your strategies cheers.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Mon May 17, 2021 11:10 pm
by jimboalabama
Hi, I have been following the thread and am impressed with the work you have put in and the results you are getting.

I am looking at the uk dogs and been trying a few strats with laying traps, faves on win and place markets etc and also using the loss recovery.

I am struggling to get a balance though.

I base most my strats around laying the dogs but the recovery can race away with the profits.

I have good days but 1 bad day can lose the winners.

Would a backing strategy be more stable than laying? Also so you have the stop loss on all strats?

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Tue May 18, 2021 10:37 pm
by dn6789
right now I only back - the advantages to this seem to be that when you back favs 5-8

sometimes you get 100-150/1 .. so this can make a strategy reset quickly which is what you want to see.

Yes Take Profit and Stop Loss

so different strategies are set up differently or in groups but I will give you 2 examples

1 strategy on its own --- Take Profit $50 Stop Loss $200 .. reset everyday at midnight

6 strategies together --- Take Profit $65 Stop Loss $300 . reset everyday at midnight

you might say why is 6 so close to 1 .. the answer is that 3 strategies may bet in same race so the joint profit might be $15 ... also with simple sequence betting - you want to reset quickly back to bet 1

then you can hit a lot of take profits per day and you will quickly hit $1000 then $1500 a day

well how can you go from a losing punter to a winning punter --- concentrate on 1 strategy first - so what if it does not bet in every race -- just find one thread that works and build your army from there.

Things we know about GH racing in Australia (i know your UK but I can only give australian advice)

Boxes 1 - 4 win most of the races and have most runners

we have races with 4 dogs 6 dogs and 8 dogs

Favs win 70% of the races

winning prices range from 1.20 to 300/1

So if you figure out SR for boxes - you know the pricing and you work out what changes between 4 - 6 and 8 dog fields you can find a small edge

Once you have an edge look at your recovery and betting - I recommend Simple Sequence Staking but whatever - you just need to know what it should look like and when it deviates - when it deviates you need to Stop Loss quickly and reset.

What does this give you ?

easy to hit take profits which resets your bets quickly and builds your account ... should it go haywire everything has a stop loss

then most importantly if you have calculated everything then you know what your numbers should look like - so you can pause quickly and make any changes you deem necessary.

Lastly do you build strategies for the 70% .. for the 30% ... or a mixed 70/30 ? this is the question

me I built something that out of the 120 races a day bets about 70-75 and I am betting anywhere from 20-90 a race ... max drawdown for me is only like 300-400 because my strategies offset - a typical loss may only be $30 but some races I win $500 $600 ... this is really where my edge shows out.

anyway start small figure out one and then go from there ... forget laying until you have the backing part figured out in my opinion.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Tue May 18, 2021 10:49 pm
by dn6789
also like I said before

my base bets start at $5 and my max bet per strategy is either $15 or $25

what I found was when I bet $200 per dog and entered it into the market other bots would shoot down my price - which is why I went from just a few bots to a lot of bots

now I bet smaller and capture the full price of the dog -- this maximizes return per race

to me this is another reason that accelerated me through the $1000 per day mark ... lose a few bets my $5 bet rises to $7 $8 then I hit a 60/1 80/1 -- resets everything if I am losing and my account is rises quickly.

I withdraw at least $500 everyday now -- but I also let my account grow - so I can add more strategies -- change the size of my bets and just be real comfortable with the performance - knowing that I am so far in front I am hard to beat.

lastly before I figured out how to win - I was constantly - scraping - sorting - creating and importing -- dogs/horses trots - buying tips and staking strategy - getting tips of sites and building around that

all it did was give me so much frustration as to why was it so hard -- the light flicked on one day when really it is all statistics and staking .. and getting max value.

anyway I hope that helps ... yes I wish the software did more of the work and supported data sites directly - but it is what it is - so we gotta use what we got.

good luck

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Tue May 18, 2021 10:58 pm
by dn6789
+ do not feel like I am not giving you direct answers

I already posted here 2-3 strategies that I use myself

the small field strategy I already made 2 strategies out of that - using various size small fields - prices and staking for horses and trots

also the horse ones for some reason laying never works for me - but the idea works as we saw on Saturday -- I have really given so many things to look at - but it takes work to implement

+ laying fav drawn barrier one on heavy track with min 6 runners -- check distance 1100-1600
+ betting fav on good tracks barriers 1-10 -- distance 1100-1600 .. simple staking
+ 6 runners or less - betting fav 1 + 6 once certain prices are achieved for a profit with simple staking
+ check fav vs 2nd and 3rd fav - when drawn barriers either inside or outside - distance + track condition

just lots of little tips on where to look and how to build

OK I am out got things to do

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Tue May 18, 2021 11:25 pm
by dn6789
I was just getting ready and wanted to say one more thing

find that one thing that you like

6 dog fields 8 dog fields 5 horse races 6 horse races - your fav jockey - your fav racecourse .. you like favs - you do not like favs - you like shorteners - you like drifters

whatever it is pick 1 -- solve that first then move onto larger more complicated solutions

how many times does the 5/1 into 6/4 horse win - what barrier does it draw - how rides it - what distance is it - track condition - trainer - what price does the 2nd fav start at

look at all the relationships between the inputs and the result -- then get your staking right and next thing you got a profitable strategy

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Wed May 19, 2021 4:10 am
by dn6789
if you would have followed my small field example today you would be up $66 for $10 and be done for the day .. as I have this at $40 TP daily.... it got a 15/1 winner basically.

just shows you - come up with 10 strategies at $40 a strategy = $400 a day

more robust strategy obviously you set the profit targets higher

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Wed May 19, 2021 5:17 am
by dn6789
this is too easy today

+763 already - withdrew $400 ... should be right in that $1500-$2000 sweetspot

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Wed May 19, 2021 9:33 am
by dn6789
80-1 winner lol .. going over 2k today

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Wed May 19, 2021 10:11 am
by jimboalabama
Thanks for the reply and more advice.

Really appreciate it.

I have a few small strats that are green consistently but it is the increase in stakes when it goes wrong so understanding what you have put in here has helped me see where I can improve these.

I will focus on those and let you know how I get on...

Cheers

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Wed May 19, 2021 1:03 pm
by dn6789
yeah on that to repeat myself

a. work out strike rate - max DD -- then use simple sequence and work out what the progression should be

also calculate the area where the analysis is wrong and put your stop loss at that price/dollar value -- to bring you back to square one ... if you have an edge you just need to keep your bankroll intact as much as possible and let it play out

b. I do have individual stop loss and take profit and midnight resets -- but I also have a group of 8 strategies that work together for their SL and TP -- so they reset faster which again is key

do not fall in love with recovery 100% - it will blow your bankroll for sure no matter what you do.

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Wed May 19, 2021 10:16 pm
by echelon
More great discussion on this thread - I'm amazed that it's not getting more attention!

Maybe everyone on the forum is already making a small fortune from their bots :lol:

I've been trying to use standard loss recovery for dogs, football and horses and I'm finding that delayed results can have disastrous impacts where some losses have built up, but the winners have yet to settle. At the same time the recovery is kicking in big time on all the new bets just placed. Of course, typically some of those new bets with huge recovery stakes end up losing and recovery rapidly gets out of hand.

dn6789 - Your method of steadily increased staking and reset on a given profit or loss has got to be the only safe solution for recovery that I can see - at the very least having a stop loss we can leave the bot unattended, reasonably confident that it won't go into crazy recovery mode and wipe out the account balance.

I've been doing some analysis on UK dogs - there are a lot of different tracks and there's no obvious bias in any of them that I can see which is consistent over time. So...I started looking at 1-6 Favourites and matching those against profitable traps. This is more consistent, though from previous experience in looking at dogs trap stats, I know that these short term trap biases can change from one week to the next or from one month to the next etc. quite randomly. I'm wondering if I need to constantly review these stats on a daily or perhaps weekly basis and then adjust the bot strategies to match current trends - or am I fooling myself with randomness masquerading as consistency? :?

Re: My Experience from Failure and almost giving up to Success

Posted: Thu May 20, 2021 2:41 am
by dn6789
I think you are looking at it a bit too simply

you need to find scenarios where the box wins and scenarios where the box loses .. then at what strike rate and at what DD

then you can set up a simple sequence and it would work properly.

if you can then move to a portfolio of bots where some can work together - and have a joint TP and SL - then your whole set up becomes more robust and you will find yourself making money everyday

now if I look at my race by race stats it looks bit like this +25 -15 +120 -17 +400 -37 +10 +5 -6 +57 ... the more you figure this out the lower variance you will have.

you also need to consider ok at what scenario do favs lose - and if so then is it better to back Fav 2 and Fav 4 in the next race.

also one I am looking at making now -- if the fav 1 wins 3 in a row should I back Fav 2 and Fav 3 with step sequence and how many times this occurs per day

maybe also if Fav 8 wins race then I should bet Fav 1 and Fav 2 with step sequence

there is so many ways to find patterns and identify bets -- the issue is how many races a day match the circumstances

anyway I just suggest stepping back and looking at it from further back - the answers are right in front of you - you just need to get the first one right and then the others will follow.

(also moving forward I am just going to comment on horse and trot set ups - as I really do not want to give away my edge .. I already got a new car in my sights lol)