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General discussion about Bf Bot Manager v3 software for Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook betting exchanges
#24397
and I agree with you - if people do not post in the thread and discuss the thought process - then I will just give it away.

there is money to be made here and if your up for the challenge great - if not then I will not waste my time updating the thread and it can die off.
#24398
I also wanted to say this

sometimes you need to back 3-4 GH in a race to get the winner -- it is not about being right 100% of the time - but it is about figuring out how to stake so you can bet this event when it occurs and make a profit

that is what I mean you need to step back and figure this sort of thing out - and not concentrate on achieving 100% SR on one dog.

you take my 6 horse trot example -- you back the 2.40 fav and the 15/1 - so you make tiny profit if the expected event works - but if like yesterday happens the 15/1 wins - all of a sudden for $10 your up $65

in this example you just need to find the prices and staking that works - distance and track - and it will work no problems
#24400
this last race is another good example for you

I have like 16 GH race strategies running

in the last race -

2 strategies picked the same dog and one picked another - so it placed 3 bets on the race

the dog with 2 bets on it won @ 4.71 so it made a net of $38.58 on the race

it is identifying the runners - the staking - the TP and SL all working together to keep the profits coming in.
#24401
another race it places 1 bet

it wins and pays 28/1

like I said every strategy it designed to win on its own - but what I see is the accuracy runs in cycles - you get lots of wins race after race then it goes off for 3-4 races then it comes back again

this is why I have so many strategies really - to find races where they should win
#24404
Just a wee update on my set up.
Yesterday it was up and down but it came strong in the end and made me £24 profit.. today I was at work and let it run and came home to 60 loss... so not a great scenario.

It was the recovery that got me as the runs are too frequent for recovery to work so got 1 x recovery loss 2 x normal stake win 1 x recovery loss 1 x normal stake win and it just drained a weeks worth of profit.

But again some wise words on here and I think I had my light bulb moment, appreciate your time and guidance...
#24405
yeah for sure until you figure out how to manage the race your going to have ups and downs

I did not learn all this in 1 day and knew everything straight away .. I was on the verge of quitting this altogether before I said to myself there has to be away to win at this.

this whole recovery idea is an issue which is why I went to simple sequence - multiple strategies on same race etc

everything to reduce my variance ... anyway keep at it and it will come
#24407
Hi There, this is an incedible post and i am enjoying reading about someone who has made a go of it for themself, please keep it up.

Can I ask one question, is this fully automated ?
as in do you just leave the bot on and let it run.
I am interested as you mention in your posts that you filter out some races and select certain dogs.

is this research done before and the bot applied to them runners ?
Or is it captured by your bots ?

Thanks
Gavin
#24408
it is 100% fully automated

the only thing I do is each day look at the results vs what the expectations show - and slightly adjust the filters which determine whether to bet or not

I have 16 strategies and sometimes it places 1 bet sometimes it places 6 bets - sometimes 2 bets get placed on 1 runner -- they are all designed to be complimentary and each strategy is designed to make a profit on its own

this is one of the secrets of the whole thing -- by using multiple strategies and grouping them together so that they trigger a joint take profit and reset all bets back to the first stake size -- this is what stops what the other posted was saying where it is inconsistent.

Also if I used only one strategy out of the 130 races a day it might only bet 8 - so the profits would be a lot lower.

I think the key is really to look at multiple factors combine them and see what the strike rate looks like then approach your staking -- like I said full on recovery is suicide.

anyway yeah like I said I did not figure all this out in a day - it took a while before it tweaked to what I should be looking for.
#24409
before I came up with this solution what I was doing was using a scraper and putting it all into a spreadsheet and filtering everything and building strategies that way

also I was incorporating ratings and all these other things

it was time consuming - frustrating and the software was irritating me because it required all this work outside of it and just feed it the results .. I really wanted something that could just run.

In the future I could see myself hiring a full time data analyst and coder to build more advanced ways to do this - but for right now I have found something that day in day out just churns away and makes a profit.

I mentioned it a few times I have added a lot of information in this thread that you can turn into profitable strategy - in fact I have 3-4 that are based off this very thing ... anyway it is up to you guys to analyze and figure out what you want to include in the selection process.
#24410
something else I am adding today too some of my strategies

is the price that the GH must be drawn on the inside and outside of my selection

so looking for weaker dogs to give mine hopefully just a slightly higher SR -- so can reset stakes faster + reduce DD

I certainly am always thinking how to make things better and expand

if you want me to keep sharing things or talking about how I am approaching this - please update with your own thinking - or like I said I will just let this die off
#24411
also something on Simple Staking

it might be 5,5,6,6,7,9,12,15 then step back 100

now this might generate a loss right if it goes to 4 or 5 and the price is on the low end of what is allowed

but this is irrelevant - because you can tie the strategy to another to help it reset - or really what you are doing is limiting the loss and starting over - because the SR of the bet itself over time will allow the edge to play out

(really what happens is if your allow bets in the 3-5 range - sometimes you will get a 6 or 6.50 if you use BSP - and this returns the profit back to you)

this is why using many of the recovery options just does not work and it just gets out of control - especially if you have too many bets -- this is why I am updating some of mine today with even more things to help with this
#24412
the other thing to consider is the price of things located near each other

in horses if you get 2 horses similar price next too each other they tend to race each other - or in GH terms if you have 2 or 3 highly motivated dogs next to each other - you can get collisions and the price of winners opens up .. because they tend to be trained to all go to the one spot when they are in a certain position.

also field size is a huge factor in the randomness of it all
#24413
I was also thinking too - reading some threads etc

you build a strategy and it is not working according to what you thought - which you should know pretty fast right

it should have a 22% SR and your 0/6 it is time to stop loss and add some more conditions and alter your staking

really it does not matter if a strategy only places 4 bets a day - it really is have you identified an edge and is it working in real life.

(sorry for typing these random thoughts while I am working on updating my own strategies)
#24415
up $450 so will be hard to beat heading into rest of the day

I think filtering the selections using the runners either side cuts down on a few bets - but the SR has gone up slightly - so that probably is a good thing because that obviously affects drawdown

as long as I get to $1500 as my minimum per day will be happy with that

on another note the small field bet we had one today and we got second and third pipped right on the post - the strategy is good - just not a lot of bets.
#24417
Hello and thank you for sharing your thought process on the strategies your using. I have a few greyhound bots for UK, so I understand how your looking at things from research point of view. Not sure if Aus greyhounds have a sectional time like the UK or if there's a stat that says if a dog is a slow starter or not, but this would help you selection process as it just about gives it a clear run from the boxes. Wishing you all the best.
#24421
yeah it is a good thought but most times that info is in the price - so you just need to work that out

I do not think it is possible to build just one GH strategy and make a profit - it requires a coordinated approach really

I was looking through fav data to potentially look at laying - it is obvious it is way better to lay the 2nd fav than it is the 1st fav .. we had a run of 11 favs 9 favs and 5 favs position 1

where for position 2 it was rare to see 2 in a row .. I know each day is different but this tells me something like lay after 2 wins would work with a staking plan and SL - but how many bets you would get would be the issue.
#24423
Laying UK Greys Favs is super dangerous as they do tend to go on stupid winning streaks like 13 in a row so recovery bots will get crushed, just a matter of time. It's way easier to keep track of how things are doing based on 3 month sections and see how the % figures are fluctuating after you figure out what the baseline should be. We are blessed with enough stats that if you know what your looking for you can make a living on the greys.
#24424
ok first race down on the day

bot placed 4 bets

number 1 at 19.83

number 10 at 10
number 10 at 10

number 5 at 4.26


number 10 won -- number 1 second and number 5 third

so it is safe to say that my selection criteria is right on the money at the moment
#24425
as far as the other thoughts on favs etc - I have not turned those into any functioning strategy as yet

I have these 18 rock solid strategies that I am using day in and day out -- but as indicated through the thread at some point I would like to expand -as I feel like I have a good grasp how to make anything that has an edge profitable and it would be fun to keep testing myself.
#24432
I cannot speak for UK GH racing

but in Australia the races fall into 2 groups

races that follow the 70% and races that follow the 30% .. so I looked at both outcomes and tried to find strategies that would win in both cases - by reducing bets - by only looking at certain types of races

so as I said before even under the 70/30 split of race results I see variations where it will go off where it should be for 3-4 races but when it comes back to the sweet spot - you can see 5 6 7 wins in a row and when you spike a 50/1 100/1 then your account really grows.

I think I typed in my race results before it was going like -12 +37 +110 +25 +22 -27 this sort of thing then you get a +250 +500 your profile looks pretty good

anyway that is how I approach it

what do the results look like - what are the profiles of the winners - what filters do I need - how do I stake for a profit

you take yesterday I added a filter so that it only bet in races of 5-8 dogs - as we have 2 3 4 dog races as well - but these really only broke even for me and it distorted results slightly - so I removed them

also I have started betting 15 seconds before start instead of 30 60 or 90 - to let the market decide where they are going and not force it by any of my actions -- this is my biggest problem really I do not want to influence betting greatly.

I challenge people to look deeper into how racing works - and we are not going to win every race but if we get as much data on our side that at the end of the day we can be a winner.
#24433
so what I will do it just look through yesterdays expectation vs results and make any changes to the selection filters and be ready for todays racing.

you saw I posted one of the races bets it made and was very accurate in its selections -- so that is what I am trying to maintain ... 18 strategies and placing bets when it hits their criteria.
#24434
It's great to see this discussion continuing and with every gem posted in this thread, I feel as though I'm getting closer to understanding how to build a system from multiple strategies.

I've been collecting data (only for a week or so and ideally needs to be a lot more), which is giving me a good insight into the SR of various combinations of bets. To collect the data, I have a strategy which runs to back all dogs in all UK races - I'll probably set one up to lay all too because when the spread is taken into account it's often not a simple matter of just reversing a poorly performing backing strategy to make it a profitable laying strategy.

I'm also collecting data for horse races in a similar way. If you can find your way around Excel, it's reasonably simple to generate SR's and these can be summarized any way you like by using the pivot table functionality.

I have a bunch of strategies that I was watching today - they all had the same starting stakes with a staking plan and I noticed them being well green and then checked later and they'd lost most of the profit or turned red. I checked these in a bit more detail and found that if I'd have stopped 3 of these strategies at £x profit, I'd have been well into the green at the end of the day instead of just about breaking even.

Another thing I've been thinking about is that given any type of sports event is by nature unpredictable and variable, we need to find a means of getting an edge by covering all possibilities as dn6789 has suggested already.

Provided that we have stats showing the best SR's for particular conditions, we can home in on these and use them to generate the edge. Along with this and perhaps variable stake sizes per strategy (e.g. smaller stakes for the longer odds), we can cover all the runners - or at least all the runners we expect to have a good chance of winning.

Say we have 4 strategies, today the results may be:

1 £50
2 -£30
3 -£40
4 £60

Tomorrow the because of the variability, the results may be:

1 -£20
2 £120
3 -£30
4 -£20

The key as I see it is to ensure that the net total of all strategies is always positive.