This months article is more a manual one and takes a small bit of input from the user.
Again we focus on horse racing markets and try to utilise the tactical or running style of a particular horse within a race, that horse been the hold up, slowly away or dropped out in rear type runner.
Now let me tell you that from experience the minute a horse is held up the only time it is at an advantage is when they go off to fast in front. This happens probably once in 15 races. What i am trying to say is a hold up horse is more compromised because of its run style before it even starts a race.
The stats always say a hold up horse wins way less than a front runner or pace horse.
So how do we try and take advantage of this using the trader bot. The theory is simple, if a horse is a habitual hold up type then he or she should trade bigger in the run.
So how do we go about finding these horses. A site which is free and I have used for years which provides free pace charts on all races in the UK and Ireland is http://www.patternform.co.uk/. In fact the pace charts I will provide here as examples are my invention on the numbers side and the creator of the site kindly added my suggestions on pace charts to the site about 6 months ago.
I use these chart whenever I bet or trade on horses. I find them invaluable.
Let's start with one examples of a hold up horse in running at Goodwood on the 3/9/2013. This horse is Mawaqeet in the 4.40.
Firstly some screen shots of the Patternform site and how to find what your looking for.
Below shows the home page of Patternform.
What we are looking for here is the Moneyform Cards for September 3rd. Click on this.
This highlights all the meetings that are on today. We are looking at Goodwood in this example. Click Goodwood.
This shows us each individual race for that particular meeting. Our example here is the 4.40 race.
This is the actual race card or moneyform card for the 4.40 which shows us Mawaqeet. This page has many filtering options and basically highlights how often a horse has traded half it's Betfair SP in running or in play. As we can see Mawaqeet had traded 50% or more of his BF SP 40% of the time. The numbers in the DOB% column indicate how low that horse traded. This is how they work.
The MONEYFORM values are as follows
* is a 1.01 which usually means a win
1 is 1.99 to 1.02
2 is 2.99 to 2.0
3 is 3.99 to 3.0
4 is 4.99 to 4.0
9 is 5.0 or over IR but less than half it's BFsp price i.e. DOB
0 is didn't trade 50% in play
From the screenshot we can see that Arch Villain has traded 50% or more on all his runs. This is useful information.
You will also see my pace charts in the top right hand corner under Pace V2. Click on Pace V2.
This is the actual Pace chart for the race in question and a brief explanation on how the chart works is shown at the top of the page. If you hover your cursor over any number you will also get race comments. Distance and class are also highlighted. The first number to right of a horses name is the master pace rating. I tend to ignore this as I don't agree with how's it's worked out. Working form left to right we are only concerned with numbers with c and d letters next to them. The premise is simple, any horse who has made the running gets a 1, who tracks the leaders 2, who is a middle of the pack runner 3, who is held up 4 and finally 5 is for the dropped out last or slowly away horse. So we are only worried about horses who continue to be held up or are slowly away.
Mawaqeet is a prime example with his last 5 runs showing 5 4 5 5 5 . He is always held up in rear and intentionally slowly away from the stalls. This process is repeated for other runners during the day. All selections for this article have to be entered manually the night before or on race day. This may be seen by some as a down side, but the rewards for 15 mins works are worth it.
So lets show our set up within Trader Bot.
Please Note I am using Beta Version which has new settings I have suggested. These are start betting X secs after official start time and a skip race rule. If you dont have these bet to 0 secs before start time.
This is our main screen window showing main set up with the 4.40 at Goodwood in data grid and Mawaqeet highlighted in Fav Column to indicate that this is the horse we want to trade. Price ranges are set to my preference and I use Â£100 lay to liability stakes with set over rounds as shown. Max profit should be set to your preference. I would normally have this at Â£150 max loss.
Trader bot settings in General Tab are set up as seen. You will notice I like to trade after the official start time. I have set this to 10 secs. My thinking here is horse racing is notorious for been delayed and I believe all the big money will dry up after the official start time and your trade will complete before the off. That is the plan here. The back up of letting your offset trade or second bet go into play is the hold up angle on the horse itself.
I am always looking for one profitable trade only. I use 3 trades because I have a cancel if initial trade is unmatched so bot will try and trade a second time. That will become clearly with more screen shots.
This is our trade direction tab. We are only concerned with two settings here as can be seen. Because we tick 1st favourite it guarantees we trade on horse we selected using fav column.
This is the first bet tab and we are laying to Actual Price and asking for one tick better price. I find this if matched puts us in a better position to be matched before the off time. Cancel trade to 10secs is ticked here. And also Keep bets.
The second bet or offset bet as I like to call it is asking for just one tick. Again Keep is ticked with take a profit if possible also ticked.
This is one of my suggested new settings for trader bot. A late non runner can have a huge impact on prices if trading Lay to Back. I set this to 20%.
This is the monitor market settings. I set to in running for obvious reasons, monitor two markets and most importantly the move on if race delayed option.
The recording of prices settings are again my preference.
And last but no least, the results of the exact set up. I did untick the horses in question here so they are not highlighted in red. I like to keep horses to myself as I work hard to profile them.
NOTE: Please note if 2nd or offset bet isn't matched pre race it will go into play and may also remain unmatched if horse goes onto win, you will be therefore liable for full loss of stake plus multiple of odds.
So all in all this is an interesting strategy and it takes a bit of work which I believe is always necessary to make a profit long term. It may spark other ideas for you with the trader bot. Again I am not responsible for any losses incurred by this set up and it is only used as an example for article purposes.
Best Of Luck